MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Tuesday’s Slate (6/27/23)

The MLB slate on Tuesday, June 27 offers 15 games to bet on run lines, over/unders and MLB player props. MLB bettors looking for some other bets to place should consider an increasingly popular MLB bet: No Run First Inning (NRFI) and Yes Run First Inning (YRFI). This article analyzes today’s NRFI and YRFI betting odds and recommends the best NRFI bets and the best YRFI bets to make on MLB games on 6/27/2023.

6/27 NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Here are the best NRFI and YRFI bets to place on Tuesday, June 27, 2023.

Marlins vs. Red Sox NRFI (+100 at BetMGM)

Starting pitchers: RHP Sandy Alcantara (2-6, 5.08 ERA) vs. RHP Garrett Whitlock (4-2, 4.50 ERA)

We can get some attractive odds on the NRFI in this matchup because neither starting pitcher has been very good overall this season, but when we dig into first inning performance the story is a bit different. Not only do both of these pitchers tend to start off strong before things unravel, but both lineups in this matchup tend to start slowly.

Reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara has not been the same pitcher in 2023, but he has been excellent in the first inning. He has pitched scoreless first innings in 13 of his 15 starts and has allowed just three runs overall in the first frame. There is some risk here, as those two games in which he allowed first-inning runs have come over his last six starts. Still, his overall track record in the first inning should offer some confidence.

Red Sox starter Garrett Whitlock has been similarly impressive in the first inning. He allowed two runs in the first inning in his last start against the Twins, but prior to that he had pitched a scoreless first in seven consecutive starts.

While the Red Sox have been one of the better offenses overall this season (7th in runs), they have not put up great numbers in the first inning. They are just 23rd in runs scored in the first inning, while the Marlins are even worse at 29th. Both offenses have also struggled in the first inning this month. Boston is 27th in wRC+ in the first inning, while Miami is 29th.

Despite the two starters’ poor overall performances this season, the combination of their solid first-inning metrics and these lineups’ poor first-inning metrics makes the +100 odds on a NRFI a good value.
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Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers NRFI (+105 at BetMGM)

Starting pitchers: RHP Matt Manning (1-1, 4.63 ERA) vs. LHP Martín Pérez (7-3, 4.38 ERA)

We’re getting better than even money on this NRFI because of the matchup between unproven 25-year-old righty Matt Manning and the Rangers’ top-ranked offense. While the Rangers do lead the league in runs scored, they are just 14th in runs scored in the first inning.

Manning is making his first start since breaking his toe on April 11. The former 9th overall pick has a 2.81 ERA in the first inning over his first 32 career starts. While it would not be super surprising if the Rangers’ potent lineup is able to get to Manning early, it also would not be that surprising if Manning gets off to a good start tonight.

What would be surprising is if the Tigers are able to muster some early runs, even with a decent matchup against Martín Pérez. After a solid April, the veteran lefty has posted a 5.68 ERA over his last nine starts. He has been OK in the first inning, pitching scoreless frames in 10 of his 15 starts.

Perez should be able to improve on those numbers against a Tigers lineup that is 27th in first-inning offense and 29th overall. Detroit’s first-inning production has been especially bad in June, as they have posted a paltry 18 wRC+ in the first frame.

Given the confidence we can have in the Tigers being shutout in the first, the +105 odds on Manning pitching a scoreless first inning, even against this Rangers lineup, represents a solid value.
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Minnesota Twins vs. Atlanta Braves NRFI (+115 at BetMGM)

Starting pitchers: RHP Joe Ryan (8-4, 2.98 ERA) vs. RHP Bryce Elder (5-1, 2.40 ERA)

Here we have a matchup featuring two starting pitchers with sub-3.00 ERAs and excellent first-inning metrics, but one of them faces the best first-inning offense in baseball. We’re siding with the pitchers because of the attractive +115 odds.

Twins starter Joe Ryan has pitched scoreless first innings in 13 of his 15 starts this season, including 10 of his last 11. He faces a Braves lineup that has scored the most runs in the first inning this season. Atlanta has cooled off slightly in June, but has still scored the fourth-most runs in the first frame this month and ranks 7th in wRC+.

Despite their offense’s propensity for scoring early, the Braves have hit on YRFI bets in just 40 of their 78 games. It would not be surprising if Atlanta scores early, but the more likely outcome is that Ryan gets through the first inning unscathed.

Bryce Elder has been even better than Ryan in the first inning. He has also pitched a scoreless first in 13 of his 15 starts, including his last 11 in a row. In one of the two starts in which he allowed a run, that run was unearned.

The Twins are just 19th in runs scored in the first inning and 22nd in June. They have played to a NRFI in 60% of their games (48 out of 80), second most in the league. It would be very surprising if they score on Elder in the first.

Given the Braves’ powerful lineup and first-inning success, this pick is a bit risky, but that’s why we’re getting +115 odds, and we like the value at those odds.

Post
Noah hails from Philadelphia and is a diehard Philly sports fan. He graduated from Penn where he was a sports writer and editor for the student newspaper and also spent a summer covering the Baltimore Orioles for MLB.com. He has been playing fantasy sports since before live stats were a thing, and he has enjoyed learning the nuances of DFS in recent years. As a current resident of Florida, he is hoping the wave of sports betting legalization will eventually reach his home state.

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