MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Wednesday’s Slate (6/14/23)

The MLB slate on Wednesday, June 14 offers 16 games to bet on run lines, over/unders and MLB player props. MLB bettors looking for some other bets to place should consider an increasingly popular MLB bet: No Run First Inning (NRFI) and Yes Run First Inning (YRFI). This article analyzes today’s NRFI and YRFI betting odds and recommends the best NRFI bets and the best YRFI bets to make on MLB games on 06/14/2023.

June 14th NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Here are the best NRFI and YRFI bets to place on Wednesday, June 14.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers NRFI (+102 at FanDuel)

Starting pitchers: LHP Reid Detmers (1-5, 4.79 ERA) vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (4-4, 4.14 ERA)

It might seem a bit brazen to pick a NRFI in a matchup between two of the best offenses in baseball. The Rangers lead the league in runs scored (6.2/game), average (.273) and OBP (.341) and are third in OPS (.795). The Angels are seventh in runs (4.9), 11th in average (.256), and 4th in OPS (.789). They are also two of the best offenses in the first inning, where the Angels are 5th in runs and the Rangers are 11th.

Those numbers are a big reason why you can get a NRFI at better than even money today, and the pitching matchup reveals some nice value on those odds.

Angels lefty Reid Detmers has pitched 9 scoreless first innings in his 11 starts this season, including seven in a row. The 10th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Detmers has the stuff to keep the Rangers in check early.

Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney has pitched 8 scoreless first innings in his 12 starts, and that becomes 10 out of 12 if you remove two unearned runs.

There should be a good number of runs scored in this game with these two offenses against these two pitchers, but there is also a very good chance that those runs come after the first inning. It’s not often you can bet on a NRFI at better than even money, and these offenses don’t scare me away from jumping on those odds in this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles NRFI (-110 at BetMGM)

Starting pitchers: RHP Jose Berrios (6-4, 3.61 ERA) vs. RHP Kyle Bradish (2-2, 4.25 ERA)

The Orioles and Blue Jays may be two of the better offenses in the league – 6th and 11th, respectively, in runs per game – but they are also two of the worst offenses in the first inning. Toronto is 25th and Baltimore is 28th in runs produced in the first inning (adjusted for games played).

Regardless of the pitching matchup, I would expect to get shorter odds than -110 for a NRFI in a game between these two teams. But today’s pitching matchup gives more reason for optimism.

Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios has pitched scoreless first innings in 10 of his 13 starts this season including six of his last seven. After a shaky start to the season, he has been excellent over those last seven starts with a 2.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

Berrios has also been excellent against the Orioles in his career, with a 9-0 record in 12 starts and a 2.92 ERA. Half of those starts have come at Camden Yards where he has a 2.40 ERA and 1.016 WHIP.

O’s righty Kyle Bradish has pitched scoreless first innings in 10 of his 11 starts, with the lone crooked inning coming in his last outing against Milwaukee. The 26-year-old second-year starter has improved in most statistical categories over his rookie season, which is encouraging for this bet considering he got knocked around a bit by Toronto last year (6.95 ERA in five starts).

This NRFI pick is more about the lineups than the pitchers, but the pitchers give me enough confidence to see value in the -110 odds.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics YRFI (+106 at FanDuel)

Starting pitchers: RHP Tyler Glasnow (1-0, 2.87 ERA) vs. RHP Luis Medina (1-5, 7.53 ERA)

To say the A’s are having an abysmal season would be putting it mildly. They are in the bottom two in runs, average and OPS for the season. But they are starting to show signs of life with a 7-game winning streak entering today’s game, including the first two games of this series against the Rays.

Despite their poor season-long numbers, the A’s offense has been league average in the first inning (15th in runs scored), while the Rays are 4th in that category. When we look at the pitching matchup, we can see why there is some good value in a YRFI.

Rays starter Tyler Glasnow has started just three games in 2023 since returning from Tommy John surgery. While he has allowed zero runs and zero hits in the first innings of those starts, that small sample size is hard to trust.

For his career, Glasnow has been vulnerable early in games with a 5.81 ERA in the first frame – higher than any other inning. It’s reasonable to expect an A’s lineup that is heating up could score early against him.

However, the big reason for this YRFI pick is the matchup of the Rays’ lineup against A’s starter Luis Medina. Considering his poor numbers to start his career, the rookie right-hander has been surprisingly effective in the first inning. He has allowed zero runs and just three baserunners in the first frame of his five starts this season. But it’s hard to ignore his overall performance this season – a 7.53 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.

Those numbers make it hard to expect his first-inning dominance to continue much longer, especially against a potent Rays lineup eager to avoid their first three-game skid of the season. Expect the Rays to jump on Medina early, with an outside chance the A’s do the same to Glasnow, which makes the +106 odds on a YRFI very appealing.

Noah’s season-long NRFI/YRFI record: 11-7, +3.40 units, 18.87% ROI