MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Wednesday’s Slate (6/28/23)
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The MLB slate on Wednesday, June 28 offers 15 games to bet on run lines, over/unders and MLB player props. MLB bettors looking for some other bets to place should consider an increasingly popular MLB bet: No Run First Inning (NRFI) and Yes Run First Inning (YRFI). This article analyzes today’s NRFI and YRFI betting odds and recommends the best NRFI bets and the best YRFI bets to make on MLB games on 6/28/2023.
6/28 NRFI/YRFI Best Bets
Here are the best NRFI and YRFI bets to place on Wednesday, June 28, 2023.
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-120 at FanDuel)</h3
Starting pitchers: LHP Blake Snell (4-6, 3.22 ERA) vs. RHP Mitch Keller (8-3, 3.45 ERA)
Both starting pitchers in this matchup have been excellent this season and should have no problems against the top of the order of their respective opponents.
Blake Snell has been virtually unhittable over his last six starts (36 innings). During that span he has allowed just two (!!) earned runs for a ridiculous 0.50 ERA. He has lowered his ERA from 5.40 on May 19 to 3.22 entering today’s start.
Ironically those two runs Snell has allowed over that stretch have both come in the first inning, but that is nothing to worry about. He has pitched a scoreless first inning in 11 of his last 13 starts. Now he faces a Pirates lineup that has been ice cold in June with a 79 wRC+.
Mitch Keller is also having an excellent season with a 3.26 xERA and 3.31 xFIP. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down compared to last season, which has led to a career-best 4.35 K/BB ratio (18th in the league). Keller has pitched scoreless first innings in each of his last 4 starts and 8 of his last 10.
The Padres will be a test for Keller, as they are 6th in runs in the first inning this season and 4th in first-inning wRC+. But Keller is even better at home (2.78 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 45-1/2 innings) than he is on the road, and he should be able to get through the first inning unscathed.
Trust the starting pitching in this matchup and take the NRFI at -120 odds.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets NRFI (-110 at BetMGM)
Starting pitchers: LHP Wade Miley (5-2, 2.91 ERA) vs. RHP Kodai Senga (6-5, 3.52 ERA)
Betting on a NRFI in a Mets game has generally been a good strategy this season. The Mets have scored just 22 runs in the first inning this season, lowest in the league. They also have just 71 wRC+ in the first frame, second-lowest in the league.
Do not expect that to change today against Brewers starter Wade Miley, who has allowed just 1 run in the first inning in his 10 starts this season. Miley has looked great in his last two starts since returning from the IL on June 17. He has allowed zero runs just 7 baserunners over 11 innings in those outings.
Miley’s home/away and day/night splits also portend another good outing tonight. He has been better on the road (2.45 ERA, 3.72 FIP) than he has at home (3.33, 4.85) and better at night (2.12 ERA) than during the day (3.91).
So if we can be confident in the Miley keeping the Mets off the board in the first, then the key to hitting this NRFI is Mets starter Kodai Senga. The 30-year-old “rookie” from Japan also has favorable home/road splits, as he has posted a 2.52 ERA and 3.69 FIP at home compared to 4.58 and 4.57 marks away from Citi Field.
Senga has pitched a scoreless first inning in 11 of his 14 starts this season including 6 of his last 7. All three starts in which he allowed an early run have come on the road.
The Milwaukee lineup he faces is 9th in the league in runs scored in the first inning, but they are just 26th overall in runs scored and 28th in wRC+. I’ll take Senga in that matchup, which combined with the Mets vs Miley matchup makes the -110 NRFI odds a good value.
New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics YRFI (+105 at BetMGM)
Starting pitchers: RHP Domingo Germán (4-5, 5.10 ERA) vs. LHP J.P. Sears (1-5, 4.10 ERA)
The Yankees have been awful offensively with Aaron Judge out of the lineup. The A’s have been awful offensively – period. But both pitchers in this matchup have also been awful early in games, which creates some value on a YRFI bet despite the weak offenses.
JP Sears has the second-highest xFIP in the first inning (6.57) in all of baseball this season. He has allowed 12 first-inning runs in 15 starts for a whopping 7.20 ERA in the first inning, and batters are hitting .317 against him in the first inning.
And it’s not like those 12 runs have been the result of a few bad outings. Sears has allowed runs in the first inning in 6 of his 15 starts and 4 of his last 8.
Domingo Germán has not been much better early in games. He has allowed 11 runs in the first inning across his 14 starts for a 7.07 ERA. Those runs have come across five different starts including his last two in a row.
Germán has struggled mightily in those last two outings, recording just 16 outs while allowing 17 runs (15 earned) in those two starts.
These offenses may not be very good right now, but they are more than capable of doing some early damage against these two pitchers. The +105 odds make that an attractive bet.
