The MLB slate on Tuesday, July 25 features 15 games to bet on run lines, over/unders and MLB player props. MLB bettors looking for some other bets to place should consider an increasingly popular MLB bet: No Run First Inning (NRFI) and Yes Run First Inning (YRFI). This article analyzes today’s NRFI and YRFI betting odds and recommends the best NRFI bets and the best YRFI bets to make on MLB games on 07/25/2023.
7/25 NRFI/YRFI Best Bets
Here are the best NRFI and YRFI bets to place on 07/25/2023.
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees NRFI (-120 at BetMGM)
Starting pitchers: RHP Justin Verlander (4-5, 3.47 ERA) vs. RHP Domingo Germán (5-6, 4.52 ERA)
Both pitchers in this matchup elicit mixed feelings when it comes to expected performance in the first inning, but the lineups give plenty of reason to be confident in this NRFI pick.
The Mets have been one of the worst offenses in baseball in first-inning offense this season, ranking 29th with a measly 73 wRC+ in the first inning. For much of the season they were dead last, but they have started showing some signs of improvement with a mark of 96 over the last two weeks. Still, they remain dead last in runs, avg. and OPS in the first inning on the season.
Their opponent on the mound, Domingo Germán has clearly shown some signs of brilliance this season by throwing the 24th perfect game in MLB history.
27 up. 27 down.
The 24th perfect game in AL/NL history belongs to Domingo Germán. pic.twitter.com/SyUJb0cKm6
— MLB (@MLB) June 29, 2023
That performance is an extreme outlier in an otherwise pedestrian season that has seen Germán allow 13 runs in the first inning across 18 starts, for an ERA of 6.50. Those runs have come across six different starts including 3 of his last 6. Still, given the Mets’ struggles in the first frame, it would be more than surprising than not if Germán allowed an early run.
Compared to the Mets, the Yankees have been a juggernaut in the first inning with a 106 wRC+, but compared to the rest of the league they are just average, ranking 15th. The big factor working against them today is the matchup with Justin Verlander.
While the Mets’ prized offseason acquisition has had his struggles this year, he remains one of the most dangerous pitchers in the game. After a slow start, Verlander has been excellent over his last five starts with a 1.74 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
The Yankees also struggle mightily against right-handed pitchers, especially with Aaron Judge still out of the lineup. Since Judge went on the IL on June 4, the Yankees have just an 80 wRC+ against righties. That includes a June 14 game against Verlander in which they were held to 1 run on 3 hits over six innings.
With the Mets struggling offensively and the Yankees facing a surging Verlander, take the -120 odds on a NRFI in this game.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers NRFI (-120 at BetMGM)
Starting pitchers: LHP Andrew Abbott (5-2, 2.10 ERA) vs. RHP Corbin Burnes (9-5, 3.49 ERA)
If the last pick was about the lineups, then this one is about the pitching, as this matchup features two stellar hurlers taking the mound.
These teams have seen a lot of each other lately. They are playing their eighth game against each other this month, and the last five in a row have all gone under the projected run total.
Burnes has performed well against the Reds. In three starts against the division foe this season, he is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. In his last start against them, he pitched six shutout innings and struck out 13 batters.
Burnes actually has thrown consecutive scoreless outings in his last two starts with 23 total strikeouts against 3 walks in those games. If he keeps that up, the 2021 NL Cy Young winner and three-time All Star could be on his way to his fourth consecutive season with a sub-3.00 ERA.
Cincinnati has been below average in the first inning this season with a 103 wRC+ (19th), and they have been worse over the last month with a mark of 88 (22nd). Do not expect that to change against a surging pitcher like Burnes.
The risk in this pick comes from other side of the matchup. Andrew Abbott has had an excellent rookie season so far with a 2.10 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Those numbers would look even better if he had not allowed six earned runs over just 4-1/2 innings against these Brewers earlier in July – easily his worst start of the season.
Abbott has allowed a first-inning run in each of his two starts against the Brewers this month, but he has otherwise been solid in the first frame this season. He has thrown a scoreless first inning in six of his other seven starts.
Milwaukee has been similarly middling in the first inning this season with a 105 wRC+ (16th), and they have generally been one of the quietest offenses all season, ranking 26th on the year with an 88 wRC+.
Expect another low-scoring game between these teams with these two pitchers on the mound, and that will start with the NRFI hitting at -120 odds.