MLB NRFI/YRFI Betting Odds For Saturday, May 17

There is a full slate of MLB games on Saturday, May 17, and we have all of the NRFI/YRFI odds below.

We also break down three games based and whether they’re best suited for an NRFI or a YRFI bet.

MLB NRFI/YRFI odds for Saturday, May 17

Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles – 4:05 pm Eastern (YRFI)

A pair of starting pitchers in Jake Irvin and Kyle Gibson that have had their share of first-inning trouble this season and two capable offenses face off in this afternoon clash at Camden Yards, making conditions ripe for a YRFI bet to potentially hit.

We can begin with a closer look at Irvin, who’s allowed a 9.00 ERA and .938 OPS in nine first innings. Those worrisome numbers are only some of several that belie the right-hander’s solid 2-1 record, 4.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. 

Irvin also has a .288 xBA, .380 xwOBA, .550 xSLG and 5.76 xERA, giving a definite mirage-like quality to his overall body of work and making him a clear candidate for some regression. Current Orioles hitters have a solid .258 average against him in 32 career encounters, with Ryan Mountcastle, who should be the second batter he faces Saturday, having reached safely against him in two of three career plate appearances.

To make matters worse for Irvin, the Orioles boasted an AL-high .367 wOBA and 144 wRC+ against righties at home in the previous month heading into Friday night’s action.

Then, Gibson’s season has gotten off to a fairly disastrous start. The veteran right-hander has already given up seven runs over three first innings, with those being spread out over two outings. In all, Gibson has a  21.00 ERA, .579 BAA and a whopping 26 total bases allowed in his three opening frames, and he’s yielded a 16.3% barrel rate, .337 xBA and career-high 57.1% hard-hit rate in his three trips to the mound.

Moreover, Gibson has had some nightmare encounters with current Nationals hitters, allowing a collective .371 average and .999 OPS to them in 69 career encounters, with Washington leadoff hitter CJ Abrams having posted a .364 average against him in 11 career plate appearances.

Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds – 6:40 pm Eastern (YRFI)

The Guardians and Reds have a mixed track record when it comes to YRFI bets, but the pitching matchup Saturday could lead to some early offense. Luis L. Ortiz and Chase Petty will toe the rubber for the visitors and hosts, respectively, and each pitcher has proven to be vulnerable over the first few weeks of the season.

Ortiz already comes in with a 2-4 record, 4.78 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, and some of his underlying metrics are even more concerning. The right-hander has allowed a 14.4% barrel rate, .503 xSLG, .363 xwOBA and 5.16 xERA across eight starts, which all indicate he’s actually been a bit fortunate and that hitters are squaring up consistently against him. 

Oritz’s first-inning numbers also have a bit of a smoke-and-mirrors quality to them. While he sports a solid 3.38 ERA in the first inning, he’s also yielded a .333 OBP and .753 OPS in that split. The latter number is partly the byproduct of Ortiz having given up a double, a triple and a homer in the opening frame this season, and he’s also issued five walks in that span. 

On the other side, Petty has endured a very difficult start to his MLB career, allowing a 14.3% barrel rate, .344 xBA, .643 xSLG and 47.6% hard-hit rate. He’s also pitched to a 13.50 ERA, and .375 BAA in two first innings, and he’s carrying a 21.94 ERA and 3.94 WHIP overall in his first 5.1 MLB innings.

A late Friday report indicates that Petty may not work the first Saturday and instead come in behind opener Brent Suter. The left-handed Suter has been a very effective reliever for most of his career, but he’s facing a Guardians squad that’s posted a .276 average, .732 OPS and .326 wOBA against lefties in the last month. 

Additionally, two of the hitters Suter would likely face in the first, Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez, are a combined 2-for-6 with a homer against him in their respective careers.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers – 7:05 pm Eastern (NRFI)

This third game of a series between the AL West rivals features a Ronel Blanco-Tyler Mahle starting pitcher matchup that lends credence to the notion we could have a scoreless first inning.

Blanco is still in the midst of fully rehabilitating his pitching line after a couple of uneven early starts, but he’s already coming in with some very impressive underlying numbers. Blanco sports a .198 xBA, .276 xwOBA and career-low 8.0% barrel rate allowed. He’s also generated three quality starts in his last four trips to the mound, with his most recent outing an eight-inning, two-hit, 11-strikeout blanking of the Reds. 

Blanco has also been solid early in games. He carries a 3.38 ERA and .154 BAA in eight first innings, and he boasts a .159 BAA his first time through an opponent’s order. He’s also generally been effective against current Rangers hitters (.246 BAA in 74 career PAs), and the one that’s given the most trouble, Josh Jung, is likely to remain hitting out of the bottom of the order. Additionally, the Rangers entered Friday with just a .293 wOBA and -6.9 wRAA vs. righties at home in the last month.

Then, Mahle is off the best start of his career, as he carries a 4-1 record, 1.47 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 0.4 HR/9 across his first nine starts. The veteran right-hander has yet to give up more than two earned runs in any trip to the mound, and he’s allowed just a .230 wOBA while surrendering a 31.6% hard-hit rate, his lowest since his rookie 2017 campaign.

Mahle’s success has naturally included the first inning, where he’s surrendered just a 1.00 ERA and pitched to a .167 BAA. Current Houston bats haven’t made many inroads against him either, as evidenced by their collective .217/.280/.304 slash line in 50 career encounters versus Mahle. 

Finally, consider that NRFI bets are a combined 31-16 in these two teams’ games as far as the home/road splits that apply Saturday, enhancing the case even further.