MLB NRFI/YRFI Betting Odds For Thursday, May 8
There are nine MLB games on Thursday, May 8, with some strong cases leaning toward either NRFI or YRFI betting opportunities.
Below are odds for each game as well as in-depth looks at three games.
Contents
NRFI/YRFI Odds for Thursday, May 8
| Game | YRFI | NRFI |
|---|---|---|
| Orioles at Twins | ||
| Rangers at Red Sox | ||
| White Sox at Royals | ||
| Tigers at Rockies, Game 1 | ||
| Tigers at Rockies, Game 2 | ||
| Phillies at Rays | ||
| Reds at Braves | ||
| Blue Jays at Angels | ||
| Dodgers at Diamondbacks |
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, 2:10 p.m. Eastern (NRFI)
There are multiple factors at play Thursday that point toward a better-than-average chance at a scoreless first inning in this AL Central series finale. That begins with the presence of one of the most anemic offenses in baseball and also includes a pair of talented starting pitchers, including one whose handedness has given the aforementioned struggling group of hitters plenty of trouble.
Davis Martin, one of the few bright spots for the White Sox during the first month-plus of the season, enters Thursday with a tough-luck 1-3 record that’s offset by a 3.52 ERA. Martin sports that solid figure despite one throwaway outing where he surrendered seven earned runs on nine hits over five innings to the Tigers in his second start.
Otherwise, he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his other outings, and although he’s yielded three first-inning runs overall, two of those came in that aforementioned start against Detroit. The Royals are also averaging just 0.50 runs per first inning per home game, and NRFI bets are 14-6 in KC’s home contests.
On the other side, Kris Bubic comes into this tantalizing matchup already pitching very well, having generated a 3-2 record, 1.98 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 0.4 HR/9 across his first seven starts. While Bubic’s xERA of 3.62 is markedly higher than his base figure, he’s still allowing a relatively innocuous .311 xwOBA and is facing a White Sox squad that went into Wednesday with a 25.5% strikeout rate, .223 average, .276 wOBA and -4.4 wRAA against lefties on the road.
Bubic hasn’t been scored upon in seven first innings this season, either, and he has a 9:2 K:BB in those opening frames while limiting opposing hitters to a .231 average in that sample.
Detroit Tigers at Colorado Rockies (Game 1), 3:10 p.m. Eastern (YRFI)
Coors Field always serves as a primary ingredient of the YRFI recipe, and the addition of a splash of suspect pitching is a welcome bonus. Both conditions are present for the first game of Thursday’s twin bill, which will take place in the warmer temperatures of the afternoon hours and will feature a turn from struggling southpaw Kyle Freeland.
Freeland has given up multiple earned runs in six consecutive starts after an opening day gem on the road against the Rays. The left-hander, who’s actually performed better at Coors Field than on the road in the last couple of seasons, is struggling at home this season, pitching to an 8.53 ERA, 1.82 WHIP and 1.4 HR/9 across 12.2 innings. Freeland is also facing a worrisome opponent in the Tigers, who have generated a .270 average, .851 OPS and .371 wOBA against lefties on the road in the last month, and whose regular No. 2 hitter, Gleyber Torres, owns a .600 average against him in five career plate appearances and a .400 average and 1.284 OPS versus lefties.
Naturally, any pitcher is always at risk for a tough outing at Coors, even one as talented as Casey Mize. Mize has been mostly effective in the first inning with just one earned run allowed over six total opening frames, but he’s allowed eight total bases in that same sample and has also conceded a .333 average and .917 OPS in 12 career encounters with Colorado hitters.
YRFI bets are 10-10 in Detroit’s road games and 8-8 in Colorado’s home contests, and the Tigers’ 0.74 runs per first inning per road game is the third-highest figure in that split in all of baseball.
Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay, 7:05 p.m. Eastern (NRFI)
The Phillies and Rays will close out a three-game interleague set with a pair of talented pitchers on the hill in Jesus Luzardo and Ryan Pepiot, respectively.
Luzardo could finally be putting it all together after providing plenty of promising glimpses since his 2019 big-league debut, as he’ll come into Thursday with a 3-0 record, 1.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and 0.2 HR/9 across seven starts (41.2 innings). The left-hander is back to averaging over 96 mph on his fastball after dipping below that figure last season, and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in all but one of his trips to the mound.
As his numbers suggest, Luzardo has been highly effective in the first inning, posting a 1.29 ERA and .192 BAA. He’s given up just four runs his first time through an opponent’s order overall, and the 6.3% barrel rate he’s allowing is a career low, while his .278 xwOBA is his lowest since his six-start rookie campaign.
The Rays were flummoxed by a left-hander yet again Wednesday, with Cristopher Sanchez tossing six shutout innings. Tampa Bay had already come into the night with just a .211 average and .292 wOBA against lefties at home in the last month of play.
Pepiot came into the season with an impressive 13-9 record, 3.28 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his first 43 career appearances (36 starts). The right-hander posted a 26.3% strikeout rate in two of those first three seasons, as well, and although the long ball has been an issue for him at times, especially this season, he’ll check into Thursday not having allowed a homer in his previous two starts.
Despite his 4.23 ERA and 4.66 xERA, Pepiot has a 2.57 ERA in seven first innings this season. Additionally, the Phillies are averaging the second-fewest first-inning runs on the road in the NL (0.19), and NRFI bets are 13-5 in their road games overall. Tampa Bay has been a more productive first-inning offense at home than on the road by a good margin, but we’ll roll the dice here as we bank on each pitcher’s talent.
