MLB NRFI/YRFI Betting Odds For Tuesday, May 20

There are plenty of opportunities to bet NRFI/YRFI on Tuesday, May 20, with 15 MLB games scheduled.

Below the odds for all 15 games is a breakdown of three matchups.

NRFI/YRFI MLB betting odds for Tuesday, May 20

New York Mets at Boston Red Sox – 6:45 pm Eastern (NRFI)

Two starting pitchers with plenty of experience against the opposition from previous stops face off at Fenway Park in the second game of this marquee interleague series when Clay Holmes and Walker Buehler toe the rubber for the visitors and hosts, respectively. 

Holmes naturally is infinitely familiar with Red Sox hitters from his days with that other New York team, but current Boston bats only managed a collective .152 average and .434 OPS over 36 plate appearances against him when he donned the Yankees pinstripes. 

The change in Big Apple digs seems to have agreed with Holmes so far, as he’s produced a 5-2 record, 3.14 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 0.6 HR/9 across his first nine starts. Holmes has actually been at his sharpest on the road as well, recording a 3-1 record, 2.49 ERA and unblemished 0.0 HR/9 across 25.1 innings outside of Citi Field. 

Holmes has also been relatively effective in the first inning, generating a 3.00 ERA and .212 BAA in his nine opening frames thus far. 

Meanwhile, Buehler will be coming off the IL after overcoming a shoulder injury. The right-hander didn’t go through a rehab assignment of any duration, but he’d put together three quality starts in the last four trips to the mound he logged before going down. Buehler has adjusted well to the AL and Fenway Park thus far, posting a 2-0 record with a 3.44 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 9.8 K/9 over 18.1 innings in his new home park thus far.

Buehler has had some modest first-inning trouble, pitching to a 4.50 ERA in six opening frames thus far. However, that adds up to just three runs overall, and Buehler has conceded only one XBH, a double, in that sample. Additionally, two of those runs came in his first start of the season, so he’s largely worked out any early-game issues since. 

NRFI bets are 30-18 overall in Mets games, including 16-10 in their road contests. They’re an ugly 9-15 in the Red Sox’s home games, but given the talent of Holmes and Buehler and the way each has pitched in the respective road/home splits that apply Tuesday, this remains a viable NRFI setting.

San Diego Padres at Toronto Blue Jays – 7:07 pm Eastern (NRFI)

Another interleague setting where an NRFI bet could be viable Tuesday is in Toronto, where the Padres and Blue Jays will do battle. Two talented right-handers in Dylan Cease and Chris Bassitt will take the mound, putting a scoreless first inning in play despite the talent in each lineup.

Cease’s case is one that bears digging beyond the surface, as some of his numbers distort how he’s ironed out a lot of early-season issues. The veteran righty is still sporting a 4.60 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, but his one poor outing of the season, a nine-earned-run nightmare over four innings against the Athletics in his third start, is responsible.

Cease owns a 3.06 ERA and 11.1 K/9 across the 32.1 innings covering his subsequent six starts. He’s yielded two earned runs or less in each of those starts, and although he carries a  7.00 ERA and .289 BAA in first inning this season, six of the seven runs in that sample were allowed in the aforementioned outlier against the A’s. 

In fact, Cease has held the opposition to a .208 average and .536 OPS his first time through the order, also fashioning a 28:3 K:BB in that split. It’s also worth noting current Toronto bats haven’t enjoyed their encounters with Cease in the past, mustering a collective .175/.266/.333 slash line in 64 plate appearances.

On the other side, Bassitt has some deceptive numbers of his own that could initially scare one off an NRFI bet. He too has scuffled at times in the opening frame, pitching to a 7.00 ERA and .333 BAA in his nine first innings. Yet, Bassitt also owns a 14:0 K:BB in that same span, and six of the seven first-inning runs he’s allowed overall are bunched up within three starts.

Bassitt is coming off a strong showing against the Rays in which he surrendered just one run in 5.2 innings, and he’s been very good at home with a 2-0 record, 2.05 ERA and 0.8 HR/9 across 22 innings. Current San Diego hitters have struggled against him as well, posting a collective .183/.241/.269 slash line against him in 111 plate appearances.

These two veterans have their occasional issues, but their track record against the opposition and Bassitt’s savvy at wiggling out of trouble – he boasts a .163 BAA with runners in scoring position – keep me on the NRFI track here.

Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies – 8:40 pm Eastern (YRFI)

Phillies bats got off to a very slow start in Monday’s series opener before heating up late, and I’m banking on them carrying that momentum over right into the opening frame Tuesday. This Jesus Luzardo-Antonio Senzatela matchup is a rare one where I’m banking on a YRFI bet hitting based almost exclusively on one of the two starting pitchers.

As good as Luzardo has been this season, Senzatela has been poor. The veteran righty, who’d pitched just 20 innings since the start of the 2023 season coming into this year due to Tommy John surgery, sports a 1-7 record, 6.39 ERA, 1.99 WHIP and 1.9 HR/9 over his first nine starts. Senzatela has allowed a whopping 74 hits in only 43.2 innings, and he’s carrying a 7.65 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and 2.3 HR/9 in 20 innings at Coors.

Unsurprisingly, Senzatela’s struggles have encompassed the first inning, where he’s pitched to an 8.00 ERA, .452 BAA and 1.096 OPS. To make matters worse, current Phillies bats have tormented Senzatela throughout his career, forging a .362 average, .959 OPS and eight extra-base hits in 87 career encounters.

Philadelphia has been a poor first-inning scoring team on the road as opposed to being very effective at home in that regard, but we’re talking Coors and a very vulnerable starting pitcher who has an 8.38 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in his last four starts. Two of the first three hitters Senzatela is due to face to start the game, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, also own respective .985 and 1.029 OPS marks in their careers at Coors Field.

Additionally, YRFI bets are 13-9 in Rockies home games, and given the setting, Luzardo isn’t immune from having to pay for one bad pitch either during his half of the first frame.