MLB NRFI/YRFI Odds And Picks For Tuesday, May 6
There is a full schedule of MLB games on tap for Tuesday, May 6, and there’s a strong case to be made for both NRFI and YRFI betting options.
Find all of the odds below while we break down three games.
Contents
NRFI/YRFI Odds for Tuesday, May 6
| Game | YRFI | NRFI |
|---|---|---|
| Guardians at Nationals, Game 1 | ||
| Dodgers at Marlins | ||
| Rangers at Red Sox | ||
| Phillies at Rays | ||
| Padres at Yankees | ||
| Reds at Braves | ||
| Guardians at Nationals, Game 2 | ||
| Orioles at Twins | ||
| Astros at Brewers | ||
| Giants at Cubs | ||
| White Sox at Royals | ||
| Pirates at Cardinals | ||
| Tigers at Rockies | ||
| Blue Jays at Angels | ||
| Mets at Diamondbacks | ||
| Mariners at Athletics |
Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays, 7:05 p.m. Eastern (NRFI)
A potential gem of a pitcher’s duel is set to unfold Tuesday night in Tampa Bay, when Zack Wheeler and Drew Rasmussen face off in a battle of hard-throwing, talented right-handers. Due to their track records, both pitchers certainly fulfill one of the basic prerequisites of an NRFI bet, even when factoring in Rasmussen’s recent first-inning hiccups.
The talented right-hander has allowed an earned run in each of his last two first innings, but he’s still carrying a 2.64 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 0.6 HR/9 over six starts. Rasmussen had also surrendered one or zero earned runs in his first four turns of the season, and he’s facing a Phillies squad that’s only averaged 0.20 runs per first inning per road game, leading to a 10-5 record for NRFI bets in their away contests.
Philadelphia also is limping along with a .201 average, .264 wOBA, .078 ISO, and -13.3 wRAA against righties on the road in the last month.
On the other side, Wheeler has been outstanding in the first inning, having yet to be scored upon in seven opening frames while also sporting an .046 BAA, the result of only surrendering a mere single during those first innings.
Moreover, he’s been even better than his base numbers suggest, as he boasts a .199 xBA, .260 xwOBA and 2.48 xERA while also generating a career-high 32.8% strikeout rate. He also has held opponents to .180 and .164 averages his first and second times through an opponent’s order.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. Eastern (NRFI)
A battle between two promising, high-pedigree young arms in the NL, Paul Skenes and Matthew Liberatore, takes place at Busch Stadium on Tuesday night. Skenes unsurprisingly grabs more of the headlines between the two, but Liberatore has exhibited elite control and has done an excellent job keeping the ball in the park.
The numbers line up well for both pitchers’ chances of carrying us to an NRFI bet Tuesday. We’ll start with Skenes, who has a 2.74 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 0.8 HR/9, .216 xBA, .266 xwOBA and 2.60 xERA. The prodigious right-hander has yet to allow a run in the first inning this season and has allowed just a .167 average during his seven starts.
Skenes has also held current St. Louis hitters to a collective .234 average and .253 OBP in 79 career plate appearances, and the team has averaged only 0.22 first-inning runs per home game.
Liberatore has an impressive body of first-inning work as well, pitching to a 1.50 ERA, .143 BAA and 7:1 K:BB across his six starts. The Pirates also make good targets for the talented southpaw, considering Pittsburgh holds a 25.3% strikeout rate, .227 average and .289 wOBA against left-handed hitters on the road.
Current Pirates hitters have also found the going against Liberatore rough, as they hold a collective .186/.213/.322 slash line in 61 career plate appearances. Liberatore has a 2.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 0.0 HR/9 in 18 home frames thus far.
Seattle Mariners at Athletics, 10:05 p.m. Eastern (YRFI)
A pair of volatile starters facing teams that have enjoyed first-inning success in the home/road splits that apply Tuesday are on the docket for this AL West showdown, making it an intriguing platform for a YRFI bet. Emerson Hancock and Jeffrey Springs take the hill for the visitors and hosts, respectively, and each pitcher has been very targetable in the opening frame this season, as well.
Multiple metrics on either side point toward a YRFI bet having a better-than-average chance of cashing Tuesday. To begin with, Hancock has allowed a 22.09 ERA, .565 BAA, 1.540 OPS and 22 total bases in four first innings, one of which he wasn’t able to complete. The Athletics’ current hitters have also managed a .278 average and 1.076 OPS against him in a sample of 22 plate appearances.
Springs has been shaky in the first inning in his own right, posting a 14.14 ERA, .364 BAA and 1.276 OPS in the opening frame while allowing 26 total bases (seven first innings). He’s got his work cut out for him on paper Tuesday, considering the Mariners went into Monday with a .299 average, .876 OPS, .382 wOBA and 10.3 wRAA against left-handers on the road so far this season.
Some of Springs’ advanced metrics suggest he’s been a bit better than his base numbers suggest — he owns a .315 xwOBA and 3.72 xERA, for example — but he’s still allowed four or more runs in four of his seven trips to the mound.
The Mariners have averaged 0.80 runs per first inning per road game while the Athletics were already mustering 0.87 runs per first inning per home contest before scoring again in the first inning Monday. What’s more, YRFI bets are a combined 21-10 in the home/road splits that apply for these two teams Tuesday, furthering the case for at least one run coming across in the second game of this divisional series.
