Advanced Metrics Predict Which Teams Can Win The 2025 NBA Championship

During a post-game interview in March, former Finals MVP Nikola Jokic stated his belief that “who you are in the regular season, that’s who you are in the playoffs…you cannot flip a switch.” 

If he’s correct, then regular season stats should be an extremely strong indicator of postseason success. Can advanced stats actually accomplish this feat and accurately sort teams into contenders and pretenders? 

Four advanced stats predict championship contenders

There’s a strong correlation between substantial success in four metrics and winning the championship. 

Net rating is a team’s average point differential per 100 possessions, while simple rating system adjusts a team’s average point differential based on strength of schedule. These two metrics indicate how dominant a team has been during the regular season in general when considering factors like pace and difficulty. 

Net effective field goal percentage measures the difference between a team’s effective field goal percentage and their opponent’s percentage. Free throws do not factor into this metric, which is logical because they become volatile and unreliable under postseason officiating. 

MVP share measures where a player finished in MVP voting by dividing his voting points by the total possible amount of voting points. Teams need a go-to superstar who comes up clutch in the biggest moments and transcends schemes, and they tend to finish highly in MVP voting. 

How have the past 30 NBA champions performed in these categories relative to their regular season? 

Net rating 

• 66% were top-three
• 90% were top-six
• 96% were top-eight

Simple rating system

• 63% were top-three
• 93% were top-six
• 96% were top-eight

Net effective field goal percentage

• 63% were top-three
• 90% were top-six
• 93% were top-eight

MVP share of their top player 

• 56% were top-three
• 83% were top-six
• 93% were top-eight

In other words, close to two thirds of the last 30 champions finished top-three in net rating, simple rating system, net effective field goal percentage, and MVP share of their top player. Nearly all of them were top-eight in these categories. 

This begs the question – where do current playoff teams rank in these metrics? 

Where teams rank in key advanced metrics this season

The Thunder, Cavaliers, and Celtics are unsurprisingly the top three in all of the team-oriented metrics. They also likely satisfy the MVP share category because Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, and Evan Mobley will finish towards the top of voting. 

Do any other teams rank top-eight in all of the team-oriented metrics? Minnesota and Memphis check the boxes. Anthony Edwards has a decent chance of finishing top-eight in MVP voting, but it’s highly doubftul that Jaren Jackson Jr. also accomplishes this feat. 

No other franchises – including looking at Golden State and Los Angeles’ stats since the deadline – reach every team-oriented threshold. 

Overall, advanced metrics trends of the previous 30 champions support the notion that the winner is highly likely to be one of Oklahoma City, Cleveland, or Boston with Minnesota lurking as the top dark horse contender. 

2025 NBA championship odds 

Here are the updated NBA championship odds. Minnesota is flying under the radar, according to the odds.