The NBA Playoffs have arrived and two teams will advance tonight before we truly know the final seeds. Get NBA best bets for tonight’s play-in games featuring the Hawks Vs. Heat and Timberwolves vs. Lakers. Today’s NBA best bets feature Jimmy Butler over assists and Karl-Anthony Towns over three-pointers.
NBA Best Bets (4/11/23)
Miami is currently sitting as five-point favorites at home over the Atlanta Hawks. The total is at 228.5 and despite the Heat’s defensive tendencies, it will be the offense that we take a look at tonight. The 231.5 total certainly is a favorable number for the Lakers-Timberwolves game now that Rudy Gobert is ruled out but this also has a major effect on Karl-Anthony Towns.
Heat-Hawks Best Bet: Jimmy Butler Over 5.5 Assists
This number is going to vary by the sportsbook but the over is still in play up to 6.5. Coming down the stretch, Jimmy Butler averaged 6.7 assists over his final ten games. He hit this at a 47% clip this season but had 3, 7, and 9 assists in the three meetings vs. Atlanta.
Atlanta’s defensive struggles are not going to solve themselves within the span of a few days and teams averaged the 7th most assists per game vs. Atlanta this season (26). Against small forwards, Atlanta allowed the 6th most assists.
Butler leads the heat in AST% (26.4) this season and if Kyle Lowry is out or on limited minutes, Butler has seen a near 2% bump in assist rate over 900+ minutes with Lowry off the court this season.
Best Bet: Jimmy Butler Over 5.5 Assists
Timberwolves-Lakers Best Bet: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 2.5 Threes
Rudy Gobert is out tonight after the altercation with Kyle Anderson. This changes things substantially for the Timberwolves offense, as no surprise that they are better with Gobert off the court. For Karl-Anthony Towns, he is shooting 36% from three this season and averaging 2.3 makes per game on 6.2 attempts. His usage rate sits at 25.7%.
With Gobert off the court, the usage jumps 4% to 29.7% and he averages 3.1 three-pointers per game on 6.8 attempts. His 3PT% also jumps to 45.7%.
Towns has hit this prop once in the two meetings vs. LA this season and just once over his last five games. No real concern over recent stretch given he has been working himself back through conditioning after a long time off.
Los Angeles has allowed the 3rd most three-point attempts to opposing front courts this season. The volume will be there an the value is well in play given Towns track record from three this season.