NBA Best Bets For Monday, Jan. 27: Daniel Gafford To Dominate

The NBA has a monster 12-game slate on Monday, Jan. 27, including a marquee matchup between the Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics. Keep reading for NBA best bets below, and bet with your favorite sportsbook apps

NBA Best Bets For Monday, Jan. 27

Check out four bets below for Monday’s NBA games.

Daniel Gafford Double-Double (-145 FanDuel) & First Mavericks Basket (+290 FanDuel)

The Mavericks enter this contest with a slew of injuries, including Luka Doncic, Dereck Lively II, Maxi Kleber, and Dwight Powell. Their decimated center rotation means big minutes for Daniel Gafford. It’s also a superb matchup for him. 

Washington’s putrid defense has surrendered the fourth-most points per game at the rim in the NBA and struggles mightily to contain physical centers who relentlessly pressure the basket. To be more specific, the Wizards have allowed the third-most points to rollers, fourth-most points to cutters, and ninth-most points to post-ups. 

Meanwhile, Washington is also allowing hte most offensive rebounds per game. That bodes well for Gafford, who owns the fifth-best offensive rebound percentage in the league. Look for him to physically overwhelm rookie Alexandre Sarr and subsequently control the glass on both ends of the court. It should lead to easy buckets on put-backs, too. 

Of Gafford’s total points this season, 78.4% have come from rolls, cuts, put-backs, and post-ups. He is built to exploit a Wizards squad that has given up the most points per game and second-most rebounds per game to centers. 

And although the spread is 12 points in Dallas’ favor, the Mavericks have not consistently put away bad teams early. It’s likely that the Wizards stick around, which forces Gafford to play heavy minutes. 

Additionally, Gafford has taken Dallas’ first shot in 28.5% of his starts. That rate ranks second on the team behind only PJ Washington.

I recommend playing his double-double line at one and a half units and his first Mavericks basket line at half of a unit. 

Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 Made Threes (-104 FanDuel)

Just when it seemed like Nikola Jokic had reached his offensive peak, the MVP candidate is now knocking down 47.9% of his triples on 4.3 attempts per game this season. That’s simply absurd. 

Jokic squares off against a Bulls defense that concedes the most 3-point attempts per game to pick-and-pops from bigs. It’s hardly a surprising stat given Nikola Vucevic’s limited mobility and tendency to play drop coverage versus ball screens. 

Jokic has notched two-plus triples in 25 of 39 games this season, or 64.1% of the time. I don’t expect massive volume here, so his otherworldly efficiency probably needs to hold for the bet to hit. 

I suggest playing this line at one unit. 

Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 (-112 FanDuel)

Phoenix’s perimeter defense is highly ineffective, and Ryan Dunn’s ankle injury only makes the situation worse. James Harden and Norman Powell should absolutely feast as scorers and get to their spots at will. Kawhi Leonard also looks smooth since returning and will be an excellent tertiary option here. 

And while trade acquisition Nick Richards is certainly an upgrade, he’s not an elite rim protector. Ivica Zubac and Derrick Jones Jr.’s rim pressure can fill in the scoring gaps for Los Angeles. 

On the other end, the Clippers’ superb defense will likely take a hit with Kris Dunn sidelined. However, the unit should still hold its own. Los Angeles’ wings, in particular, can help somewhat limit Kevin Durant’s and Devin Booker’s scoring, while Zubac has the ability to contain Richards. 

Overall, the Clippers’ stars are in a better position to exploit the opponent than vice versa, and the defensive gap between these teams is sizable. 

I would play this line at one unit. 

Post
Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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