NBA Best Bets For Saturday, April 19: Back Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Scoring
The NBA playoffs begin this Saturday, April 19 with a matchup between the Bucks and Pacers at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN. Keep reading for NBA best bets below, and bet with your favorite sportsbook apps.
Contents
NBA Best Bets For Saturday, April 19
Check out four bets below for Saturday’s NBA games.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 31.5 Points (-114 FanDuel) & First Bucks Basket (+175 FanDuel)
Due to a mix of scheme and personnel, the Pacers excel at protecting the arc but bleed shots inside the paint. Indiana’s desire to push the pace creates plenty of possessions, thus inflating stats for opposing rim-scorers. Plus, they also foul a lot because of the other team’s shot diet.
Giannis Antetokounmpo led the NBA in restricted area attempts and free throw attempts per game this season. Unsurprisingly, he’s averaged 36.1 points per game in his last 15 matchups versus Indiana. Antetokounmpo will handle an even larger workload than usual in Game 1 with Damian Lillard out, too.
I advise playing his points prop at one unit and his first Bucks basket prop at half of a unit.
Los Angeles Clippers Moneyline (+120 FanDuel)
The Clippers have won 18 of their past 21 games, and they match up well against the Nuggets.
Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. are elite defenders who wreck the point of attack and navigate ball-screens at a high level. Those two will give Jamal Murray fits, which is significant because Denver heavily relies on him to be a dynamic shot-creator and shot-maker.
Meanwhile, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon’s typical size advantage doesn’t hold the same weight because of Kawhi Leonard and Ben Simmons’ defensive chops.
And while nobody can diminish Nikola Jokic’s impact, Ivica Zubac is an All-Defensive caliber center who possesses the strength to clash with Jokic in the paint.
Denver’s offense will still be very potent when Jokic steps onto the court, but Los Angeles finished third in defensive rating for a reason. They have the tools to slow them down.
On the other end, this Nuggets defense is underwhelming. Containing the point of attack has been a problem for them ever since Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell–Pope left in free agency. This weakness has put too much responsibility on Jokic, who is an average defender at best.
James Harden and Norman Powell should feast against Denver’s frontline. The scariest part for Nuggets fans? Kawhi Leonard averaged 26.7 points on 55/49/90 splits over his past 12 games. He’s at full strength and peaking just in time for the playoffs.
Finally, the non-Jokic minutes remain a huge liability. Perhaps Russell Westbrook turns back the clock, but it’s not wise to count on an efficient, hyper-impactful game from him in 2025.
I expect the Clippers to win this series, and I like them to steal game one on the road at plus money. I suggest playing it at one unit.
Jalen Duren Over 11.5 Points (-112 FanDuel)
The Knicks revolutionized their offense by trading for Karl-Anthony Towns last offseason, but his inability to protect the rim along with Isaiah Hartenstein’s departure has significantly weakened New York’s interior defense.
As a result, they surrendered the sixth-most shots per game in the restricted area and allowed the second-most points to rollers. The Knicks also ranked 24th in Basketball Index’s rim deterrence metric and 29th in rim points saved per 75 possessions.
Now, Mitchell Robinson’s extended absence makes New York look a bit worse than they actually are in these season-long numbers, but the bottom line is that the Knicks still struggle to protect the basket.
Jalen Duren’s athleticism and rim pressure will pose issues for them, especially if New York tries to double-team Cade Cunningham and force him into more of a playmaking role.
Duren scored 12+ points in 42 of 66 games this season where he logged 20+ minutes. That’s a 63.6% hit rate, and his odds own an implied probability of 52.8%. I recommend playing the line at one unit.
