NBA Best Bets For Thursday, Dec. 19: Mark Williams Set To Dominate?
The NBA Cup is now in the rearview mirror after Milwaukee embarrassed Oklahoma City in the grand finale. The league has a monster 13-game slate this Thursday, Dec. 19, including a marquee matchup between the Magic and Thunder.
Keep reading for NBA best bets below, and bet with your favorite sportsbook apps.
NBA Best Bets For Thursday, Dec. 19
Check out four bets below for Thursday’s NBA games.
Mark Williams Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds (-104 FanDuel) & First Basket (+750 FanDuel)
The Hornets have eased Mark Williams back into NBA action with a minutes restriction. It’s unclear exactly how much playing time he will get against Washington, but I expect similar usage as his previous two games — starting and logging 17 minutes. That should be enough time to wreak havoc.
According to NBA.com, Washington’s abysmal defense is allowing the most points to cutters, the second-most points to rollers, and the fourth-most points at the rim. Williams’ game is centered on attacking the basket as an off-ball threat, so he’s in prime position to exploit the Wizards.
Washington also struggles to protect the glass and subsequently ranks 27th in defensive rebound percentage. Williams should dominate as an offensive rebounder, thus letting him rack up put-backs for easy points.
There may be extra opportunities given Charlotte’s injury report, too. Tre Mann will miss the contest with an injury, and Brandon Miller has a questionable tag. That’s potentially 35.6 points per game of lost production.
Overall, Williams is averaging 1.07 points plus rebounds per minute this season. Based on that rate, he would need to play about 15 minutes to hit the over. I expect slightly more usage and also a superior rate given the dream matchup, so I recommend taking the over and sprinkling a quarter-unit on his first basket prop.
Ochai Agbaji Over 10.5 Points (+100 FanDuel)
The Nets are allowing the third-most corner attempts per game, which bodes well for Ochai Agbaji. His 2.5 shots per game from this area ranks fourth-best in the NBA, and he’s knocking them down at an exceptional 48.5% clip.
Spot-up shooting forms the bulk of Agbaji’s output, but his secondary scoring avenues are also set up nicely here. For example, 38.1% of his total points this season have come from transition opportunities or cuts, and Brooklyn’s defense has surrendered the second-most transition points per game and second-most points per game to cutters.
Agbaji has scored 11+ points in 15 of 27 games this season, or 55.5% of the time. Snagging plus money for a great matchup is tantalizing.
Luguentz Dort Over 2.5 1st Quarter Points (-102 FanDuel)
It’s a tough matchup for Luguentz Dort because Orlando’s suffocating defense protects the 3-point line at a high level. However, the data is too substantial to ignore.
Check out how frequently Dort has scored three or more points in the first quarter:
- 52 of 79 games last regular season (65.8%)
- 18 of 25 games this regular season (72%)
That’s a combined hit rate of 67.3% since the start of last season, and his -102 odds here have an implied probability of 50.5%. An edge that big means the line is worth playing against any defense.
