NBA Best Bets For Thursday, May 15: Back Aaron Gordon’s 3-Point Shooting
The Oklahoma City Thunder face the Denver Nuggets this Thursday, May 15 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Will OKC stamp their ticket to the Western Conference Finals where Minnesota awaits? Or can Denver force a Game 7?
Keep reading for NBA best bets below, and bet with your favorite sportsbook apps.
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NBA Best Bets For Thursday, May 15
Check out four bets below for Thursday’s NBA games.
Aaron Gordon 2+ Made Threes (-110 DraftKings) & First Nuggets Field Goal Scorer Exact 3-Point (+1500 DraftKings)
Aaron Gordon has always been a mediocre outside shooter, but he tirelessly worked on his jumper during the offseason and subsequently shot 43.6% from deep this season. The veteran is now a reliable 3-point threat, and Denver needs him to punish OKC’s defense.
In order to limit Nikola Jokic’s interior scoring, the Thunder always have a weak-side helper on the block ready to slide over and contest. Jokic can’t spin to the baseline without running into a help defender, and he’s also getting swarmed if he enters the heart of the defense.
Denver is generating a ton of semi-contested catch-and-shoot looks from Jokic’s passing, so Gordon should have enough opportunities to knock down a pair of triples. Through five games, he has averaged 5.4 attempts per game from distance and converted 48.1% of them.
Meanwhile, a Gordon 3-point attempt has chronologically been the second, fifth, first, third, and first field goal attempt for Denver this series. That’s an average of 2.4, which means he has regularly been launching triples in their first couple of possessions.
I recommend playing his 2+ made threes line at one unit and his first Nuggets field goal scorer exact line at a quarter of a unit.
Michael Porter Jr. Under 8.5 Points (-112 FanDuel)
The sharpshooter deserves a ton of respect for playing through a significant shoulder injury, but Michael Porter Jr. is giving Denver empty minutes. He’s shooting 25.9% on threes because of his bum shoulder, has more turnovers than assists, and can’t change gears by scoring more as a cutter because of OKC’s ferocious interior defense.
The Nuggets need him to play a decent amount of minutes because their bench is extremely thin, but I expect Peyton Watson to take some of Porter’s minutes in Game 6. Watson’s defense and offensive rebounding would be huge for the Nuggets, and they are not sacrificing 3-point shooting if Porter can’t hit shots anyways.
Overall, Porter has scored less than nine points in four of five games this series. I suggest playing the line at one unit.
Oklahoma City Thunder 4th Quarter Moneyline (-122 FanDuel)
The Thunder’s youth showed when they blew Game 1 and Game 3 in the final few minutes, but OKC bounced back with impressive displays of maturity in the past two games. They were more comfortable against Denver’s zone down the stretch and stopped panicking.
Additionally, the Nuggets’ short rotation has slogged through 12 games this postseason against very physical defenses. Denver looks gassed, and the altitude along with OKC’s deep roster won’t help matters in Game 6.
I would play the line at three quarters of a unit.
