NBA Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 2/27/19
Monday’s Results: 1-2
All Time Results: 7-4, 3 units of profit
Contents
Boston Celtics -2.5 vs. Portland Trail Blazers (1 unit)
1. Buying the Celtics low here after 3 straight losses – 2 on the road against the Class of the East in the Bucks & Raps – & 1 puzzler at the United Center against the tanking Bulls. Even after a few downgrades over the past few weeks, I still have this deep Celtics team more than 2 points better than this top heavy Blazers squad. This line opened up Celtics -4 before being quickly bet down to its current number, reflecting the pessimism in the market around this team. In this case I trust the algorithm that spit out -4 more than the betting market exposed to all the drama and hand-wringing surrounding this Celtics squad. 
2. The Back-to-back effect is nullified for the Celtics for 3 reasons: 1.) B2Bs are a lot easier on teams playing the second game at home. 2.) Last nights game being decided early allowed them the opportunity not to go all out in the second half. 3.) The pressure to end the losing streak will motivate them to overcome their tiredness.
3. Blazers are playing their 4th road game in 6 nights.
4. Selling the Blazers high after 2 big wins in nationally televised games against Philadelphia & Golden State, both of whom were missing their starting center (Embiid & Cousins). Horford will be ready to tango with Nurkic tonight, and is healthier than he was earlier this season, including when Portland beat Boston by 6 on November 11th as Horford went 4/14 and scored 10 points.
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San Antonio Spurs -4 vs. Detroit Pistons (.5 units)
1. Much like the Dallas Mavericks, the Spurs have been a different team at home this year, posting a +6.8 net rating at home vs. a -5.3 net rating when on the road. Like the Mavs, they have gotten a lot of calls to go their way when playing in their building as well. 
2. Buying the Spurs low after a woeful 1 and 7 road trip. They played well defensively their last game, and would have been in the contest had they not gone an uncharacteristically 4 for 24 from deep at Brooklyn. (Interesting note: Spurs have the best three point shooting % in the NBA at 40.1%. Detroit has the best opponents 3pt % at 33.5%.) The Spurs’ players are well aware that the franchise has not missed the playoffs in 21 years – now that they are the 8th seed they will start feeling the pressure to put up some wins.
3. Aldridge will be able to shoot effectively against Drummond, who is too slow for him, or Griffin, who doesn’t have the wingspan (only 6’11), to contest LA’s mid-range jumper.
4. DeMar DeRozan is the only above average wing in the contest.
Memphis Grizzles -3 vs. Chicago Bulls (.5 units)
1. Motivational edge. Although some think that Memphis is tanking, I actually think that the Grizzlies would prefer to win themselves out of the bottom 8 in the standings, so that they can surrender this years pick to the Celtics rather than surrender a pick in 2020, which is looking like a deeper draft class. The Bulls, on the other hand, would like to lose as many games as possible and maximize their chance of getting Zion Williamson or Ja Morant. The Bulls might be more inclined to sit a player like Otto Porter (questionable) to decrease their chances of winning. 
2. Joakim Noah’s resurgent defense can contain some of Lauri Markkanen’s and Zach Lavine’s drives to rim.
3. The Bulls have been playing without a traditional point guard. Although this worked against the Grizzlies a few weeks ago – holding Conley to 3-11 shooting, I think that had a lot to do with the Grizzlies playing the second night of a back-to-back. I think in most cases, Conley will take advantage of the Bulls offensive-minded guards and have a good game. If Kris Dunn does return from injury this game, Conley will still have a significant match-up edge.
