NBA Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 4/10/19

Tuesday’s Results: 6-5
All Time Results: 55-54-2, +4.2 Units

Memphis Grizzlies +4 vs. Golden State Warriors – .25 Units

Missing Steph Curry alone this season, the Warriors are 5-7 SU & 3-9 ATS, with an averaged ATS margin of -7.9. Combine his absence with DeMarcus Cousins (out), Draymond Green (out) and possibly Klay Thompson (questionable) and Kevin Durant (questionable) and there is no way of knowing what the quality of the Warriors team will be tonight. Given their weak bench, there is a good chance the Warriors will trot out worse overall talent than any other team that suits up tonight. The Grizzlies, who have been experimenting with different lineups for weeks, will be more accustomed to this type of sub-NBA affair.

Memphis also arguably has significant incentive to win. The Grizz currently have the 7th worst record in the league, but could jump to 9th worst with a win and a Mavericks loss. In other words, if they win they probably convey their pick to the Celtics as it is top-8 protected. If they lose, however, they are likely shipping out to 2 drafts picks to Boston next year instead. As I have mentioned a half dozen times here, I think they prefer to win and get this draft debt paid off now. Decent carrot!

The Grizzlies – in all of their iterations – have been solid at home the second half of the season: going 11-12 SU & 16-7 ATS over their last 23 home matchups.

Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks – .25 Units

The Thunder have more to play for than any other team going tonight. Win & likely face a Blazers or Nuggets team that they have every chance to beat. Lose & you’ll likely have to take your shots at the Champs in Round 1. The Thunder aren’t scared of GSW, but making the 2nd or 3rd round is a paramount to a franchise that has won a total of 3 playoff games in the 2 years since their All-Time Best Player left in free agency. Sharpening your playoff axes against the Blazers, Nuggets or Rockets (whom they just beat) is a lot more doable.

Last week, the Nets clicnhed the playoffs by beating the Bucks and turned around to handle the Pacers with ease on the road the very next night. Similar story here: I like OKC to parlay their win of the year yesterday into another decisive victory that secures them better playoff seeding.

Milwaukee will likely rest many if not all of its key players, and – unlike the Denver or San Antonio, they do not have a superior bench unit waiting in the wings.

OKC Thunder -200 @ Milwaukee Bucks – parlayed with – Utah Jazz +7 @ LA Clippers – (+187) -.1 Units

The Clippers should know whether or not they are resigned to the 8th seed before tip off tonight. If the Thunder (favored) and the Spurs (heavily favored) both win, then this game will have no effect on their standings. In that case, both teams will be playing for nothing and we likely get a lot of rested players. Given two even teams of backups and double backups, seven free points would be significantly more than a 60% proposition.

OKC Thunder -200 @ Milwaukee Bucks – parlayed with – Sacramento Kings +300 @ Portland Trail Blazers – (+500) – .1 Units

Are we sure the Blazers want the 3-seed? I am not, especially if the Thunder win earlier in the afternoon. OKC has trounced the Blazers this year – 4-0 SU & ATS.  And that was with their best interior defender Jusif Nurkic in the lineup. If I’m Portland I much rather be the 4-seed and face the Jazz, whom I have beaten twice already in 2019.

  
Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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