Sunday’s Results: 4-1
All Time Results: 41-45-2, +2.02 Units
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Over 112.5 1st Half – .25 units
These two teams played at Oracle Arena on March 8th. The Warriors closed as 7 point favorites and the over/under was 235. Now, four weeks later, at the same venue the Warriors are favored by 8.5 and the total is 219.5.
The 1.5 point overall adjustment in the spread makes sense when you consider both teams recent performance. The Nuggets are only 4-8 ATS since March 8th while the Dubs are 7-5.
However, it is harder to account for huge disparity in the the total, which has sunk 15.5 points since their last game. The move might be directionally correct based on the recent trends. The Under has gone 9-3 for both teams since March 8th. But I still think it is a severe over-correction. These two teams have averaged 228 over their past 5 games against one another and this 219.5 number represents the lowest Total in this series by more than 7 points over the past 2 years.
Sticking with the first half here because the Nuggets offense has shown a tendency to fall of a cliff in the second half of games. Over their past 5 games, Denver is only averaging 38.4 points in 2nd halves. Especially if the Warriors have built a significant lead, there is a strong chance the Nuggets offense sputters out, disheartened by the true distance between their own play and that of championship level basketball.
Golden State Warriors (-380) vs. Denver Nuggets – .38 Units
Thought long and hard about taking each side of the spread here. On the one hand, this game is a true put-up or shut-up moment for the upstart Nuggets franchise. They won’t go easily into that good night if they’re down. On the other hand, the Warriors have shown clear superiority to Denver, blowing them out in their past 2 games.
GSW easily bested the best Western Conference competition in recent weeks, trouncing these Nuggets as well as the Rockets and Thunder.
The Nuggets are only a .500 team on the road. But the Warriors have been <38% ATS at home over the past two seasons.
With everyone playing on the Dubs side, and with the magnitude of the contest earning their full attention, I’m hard pressed to find a scenario where the Nuggets come out on top after 48 minutes. I’m betting a little to win a little here – but I’m pretty sure I’ll win it and $ = $.
Los Angeles Lakers +7.5 @ Oklahoma City Thunder 1st Half – .25 units
The Thunder scored 4 points total in the first 3 minutes of each half Sunday against the Mavericks. Their offense has been getting stiffer and more stagnant with each game. The meteoric rise of Paul George this season has petered out since the All Star break. Now PG’s shooting averages this season are in line with his career averages – he just shoots more than ever. Russell Westbrook has been a liability from the perimeter in the half court all season. I expect this game to start off tense – with a lot of belabored sets for Kentavious Caldwell Pope mid-range jumpers, frustrating the Thunder.
OKC is 2-9 SU and ATS in their last 11 first halves.
OKC is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.