NBA Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 4/24/19

Yesterday’s Results: 1-3

All Time Results: 69-70-1, +0.3 Units

Houston Rockets -4.5 1H vs. Utah Jazz – 1 Unit

Houston Rockets -8 vs. Utah Jazz – 1 Unit

The Jazz were much more competitive during their two games in Utah this series.  The Jazz offense – one dimensional, with not many shooters and only 1 reliable bucket-getter in Donovan Mitchell – has been relatively the same in all four games of the series. That is, not great.  However, with their raucous crowd behind them they were able to put up two much improved defensive performances over Games 3 & 4, holding the Rockets to only 98 points per game.

I expect Harden & Co. to get their offense back on track in this game and win it going away.  Remember the Rockets won the first two games by average of 26 and the contests were never in doubt.

Rockets boast the second best defensive rating in the league since the All Star break at 105.3, only 1/2 point worse than the Jazz.  They have improved on that mark in these playoffs, holding the Jazz to a paltry 100.5 offensive rating better than any other Western team by more than 4 points. In a match-up that supposedly pits a great offense against a great defense, in reality we’re looking at a great offense and a very good defense vs. an average offense and a very good defense.

The Rockets have won and covered over the Jazz in 5 out of last 6.

Houston is 7-0 ATS in their last seven at home. 25-16 ATS at home for the season.

Golden State Warriors -14.5 vs. LA Clippers -.5 Units

Golden State has been horrendous covering at home over the past two regular seasons (<38% ATS).  However, it has been different story in the playoffs where they are above 50% ATS so far in the KD years.  I don’t think the reason why is that complicated.  The energy in Oracle arena for 1 of 41 home games is just not that legendary, with many of the hardcore fans being priced out at this point.  Klay Thompson may have apologized for his comments about the dead home crowd in their March loss to the Phoenix Suns – but he wasn’t wrong.  The playoffs allure more hardcore fans.  Especially with this being the last playoff run at Oracle Arena, I expect to see great energy in the building, which will be rewarded by the team.

Golden State is 22-11-1 (67%) ATS in first round playoff games in the Steph Curry era.

Golden State is 25-16-1 (61%) in the playoffs in Kevin Durant era.

The Clippers have taken their shot and performed admirably and will have a chance to cover.  I just like Curry to get going after another regrettable performance at Staples Center, where he has struggled for years.  The Warriors will want to rev their engine to max capacity looking forward to the biggest series of the year against the Rockets.

Danilo Galinari Under 19.5 Points – 1 Unit

Danilo Galinari has one had one solid in half in this series – playing an excellent second fiddle to Lou Williams 2nd half explosion during their epic game 2 comeback.  Other than that one half, Galo has recorded only 13 made field goals in 3 and a half games.   That’s only 3.7 made field goals per game.  That represents an almost 50% reduction from his regular season average.  His deliberate style is just not the way the Clippers want to attack the Warriors.  They rather have their speedy guards flying around in and out of the paint racking up fouls on Curry and the other Warriors.   Galo is shooting only 28% for the series, as Draymond Green’s physicality and Kevin Durant’s length has rendered him a non-factor.

Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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