Friday’s Results: 3-0
All-Time Results: 48-47-2, +4.2 Units
Atlanta Hawks +10.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks – .25 units
While the Hawks will be prominent players in the lottery this May, the Bucks have clinched homecourt advantage throughout June. I don’t expect Milwaukee to rest everyone until the playoffs – which could jeopardize their rhythm – but I do expect them to rest some players and not push anyone too hard in their final games. Giannis may not want to rest two games in a row after sitting out their loss Saturday to the Nets. Bud might sit him anyway, allowing more time for him to heal the calf injury he has battled in recent weeks. Khris Middleton has been on a minutes-restriction since returning from injury. I expect him to be rested.
Hawks are 13-7 ATS this season as double-digit underdogs, including 4-0 since the All-Star break. Bucks are 5-2-1 ATS as double-digit favorites since the All-Star break – however, all of those results happened when the team was still going full-throttle.
The Hawks will want to redeem themselves from a 36 point wire-to-wire throttling at the hands of the Orlando Magic Saturday.
The Hawks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Bucks, including 4-1 in its last 5 Wisconsin.
Memphis Grizzlies -2 vs. Dallas Mavericks – .25 Units
Each franchise here had to make a business decision about how it wanted to approach this home and home series in the final week of the season. As the two teams were essentially tied in the standings going in, the two-game swing could have outsized results on draft considerations for each team. The fact that the Grizzlies played mostly everybody and won going away in Dallas Friday indicates to me that they want to win their way out of the bottom 8 and confer their pick to the Celtics this season.
Conversely, the Mavericks have shown no interest in winning down the stretch. Luka Doncic will be rested for the 2nd straight game.
The Grizzlies will look to sweep the season series against the Mavs, dominating each of their first 3 match-ups. Dallas is 8-31 SU on the road this season.
Boston Celtics -5 vs. Orlando Magic – .25 Units
The Magic have been the best of the non-contending Eastern Conference teams the past month. They’ve been so good in fact they can actually breath a sigh of relief. Their Magic number is down to 1 and they are big favorites to make the playoffs for the first time in 7 years after being as many as 8 games out of the 8th spot midway through the season. The Magic would love to continue their ascendance and steal a win against one of the Conference’s best – but if they get down, they may concede as its no big deal to lose to a top-seeded team on the road.
The Celtics need this game more – not only to cement homecourt advantage in Round 1 but also to cement the Era of Good Feelings that the team has enjoyed over the past 6 games. Hayward is back baby!
Magic are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 trips to Boston.