NBA FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 6/5/19

Golden State Warriors vs. Toronto Raptors Under 213.5

The team that neutralized the NBA big man is ironically turning to a traditional center model in the biggest stretch of their season. With Thompson questionable and Durant out, the Warriors will once again start DeMarcus Cousins – who has been huge for under bettors all season. He is a post up threat that kills transition by forcing other teams to keep bodies back to protect against his scoring and his rebounding. On the other end, he virtually never gets out on the break himself – like Old Kareem on the Late 80’s Lakers. Unlike those Lakers teams, however, – the Warriors don’t have the bodies to run and gun with these Raptors right now. They will slow the game down.

During DeMarcus Cousins 27.5 minutes in Game 2 Sunday night, the two teams combined to score 96 points. That extrapolates to a 167-point pace per 48 minutes when Cousins was on the floor. Toward the end of the game, Cousins recorded several Grown-Man Rebounds in traffic to halt the Raptors growing momentum.

The Under is 24-10 when Cousins plays for the season. It is 24-8 when Cousins plays more than 8.1 minutes. The most jarring difference is in the beginning of the 2nd and 4th quarters. A Dubs unit that struggles to score can lean on Cousins in the post. Whether or not he scores, these units are much less vulnerable in transition with Boogie bruising in the paint.

Outside of these Finals, the previous marquee game that featured Cousins heavily was a March contest with the Rockets when Durant was out. That game went 20 points under the total. In it, Cousins had the 3rd most post ups of any player in the Steve Kerr era.

Change of venue hurts Raptors sharp shooters. When the Toronto Raptors have played a playoff game this season in an arena different from their last game, the Under is 7-4, and would be 8-3 were not for a double overtime game in their last series. Players like Fred Van Vleet and Norman Powell can be great shooters when in rhythm and confident – it’s harder to achieve those two objectives when getting use to new sight lines and conditions.

Kawhi Leonard Over 30.5 Points (-105)
Kawhi Leonard Under 8.5 Rebounds (+100)

I look for many of the Raptors to get wrapped up in the raucous environment of Oracle arena. And I expect Leonard to gladly take the mantle and a sizable plurality of their shots.

One of the most amazing sights I’ve seen during these NBA playoffs was when Kevon Looney got in the way of a Kawhi Leonard drive in the first half last game. Upon contact Looney flew back five feet, spinning out of the picture like a foiled cartoon super villain. That play – which was correctly called a block – unfortunately took Looney out of the series. I think we underestimate the toll these plays take out on Leonard.

Yet he soldiers on with the best of them, meeting the challenge head on at every turn. In the 8 road playoff games the Raptors have faced this post season, Leonard has scored more than 30 points in 6 of them. When role player Raptors shy away from the moment, Leonard is there to take every tough shot if need be.

No man is an infinite fountain of energy, however. I believe we’ve already seen Leonard take some plays off this series defensively. I expect Nick Nurse to try and limit his duties on the defensive end, keeping him fresh for a 4th quarter virtuoso closing performance if necessary.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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