NBA Finals Best Bets For Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1: Fade Tyrese Haliburton’s Scoring

The Indiana Pacers will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of the NBA Finals this Thursday, June 5 at 8:30 p.m. ET. Keep reading for NBA best bets below, and bet with your favorite sportsbook apps. 

Best Bets For Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1

Check out five bets below for Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Tyrese Haliburton under 17.5 points (-125 DraftKings)

Although Tyrese Haliburton should be a significant playmaking force in this series, it’s difficult to be optimistic about his scoring production. 

Oklahoma City’s defense thrives at shutting down ball-screens primarily due to Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace. Those three navigate traffic at a high level and apply tremendous pressure at the point of attack. Haliburton will likely struggle to burn them off the dribble and consistently get two feet into the paint. 

When he does manage to bypass the first line of defense, he will have lengthy help defenders flying at him because Oklahoma City loves to force kick-outs instead of surrendering floaters or rim attempts. Haliburton is content to rack up assists and assume a passive scoring role if that’s what the defense is giving him, so he won’t force low quality shots just to boost his point total, either. 

Overall, look for Haliburton’s scoring to be suppressed by Oklahoma City’s athletic, disruptive perimeter defenders. They own a history of accomplishing this feat, as they have held Indiana’s star point guard to an average of 12 points per game across their previous four matchups dating back to last season. 

I recommend playing the line at one unit. 

Aaron Nesmith over 11.5 points (+100 FanDuel) & first basket exact method 3-point (+2900 FanDuel)

As stated above, the Thunder excel at forcing pick-and-roll orchestrators to give up the basketball and create spot-up looks for role players. Aaron Nesmith paces Indiana this postseason in catch-and-shoot attempts per game from distance, and he’s made half of them. Nesmith also leads in corner attempts, which is a vulnerable area for Oklahoma City’s defense. 

And while it’s difficult to generate transition looks against this defense, Haliburton and company are too surgical for that source of offense to be completely eradicated. Nesmith should benefit and secure at least one or two baskets on the run. 

I suggest playing his points line at one unit and Nesmith to score the first basket of the game on a 3-point shot at a quarter of a unit. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 5.5 rebounds (-115 DraftKings) & 8+ rebounds (+280 FanDuel)

Indiana’s offense maintains exceptional spacing because the vast majority of their rotation pieces are legitimate threats from beyond the arc. Myles Turner’s ability to operate as a stretch-five pulls is especially crucial since it pulls opposing bigs away from the basket. 

As a result, it may be a tough series for Isaiah Hartenstein. He’s a relatively mobile big, but the Pacers are another animal. Indiana likely attacks his lateral agility on the perimeter this series, and I expect Oklahoma City to respond with more solo-big minutes for Chet Holmgren and more small-ball lineups with Caruso or Jalen Williams guarding Indiana’s center. 

A consequence of this chain reaction would be more rebounding opportunities for the Thunder’s guards and wings. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander loves to sag and jump passing lanes, which places the MVP closer to the basket, and he’s also willing to roll in the mud for rebounds. 

In three matchups against Indiana over the past two seasons, he grabbed 10, 7, and 7 rebounds. 

I recommend playing his 6+ rebounding line at one unit and his 8+ rebounding line at a quarter of a unit.