NBA MVP Odds 2022-23: Favorites, Dark Horses, Players To Avoid

Current NBA MVP Odds (2022-23) point towards Luka Doncic as one of the favorites for the upcoming season at .  We have some two-time winners atop of the updated NBA MVP odds 2022-23 list with Giannis Antetokpunmpo and Nikola Jokic at . Stay tuned through the season, as these odds will fluctuate based on performance and injuries!

NBA MVP Odds 2022-23

Shop around NBA MVP odds 2022-23 for the upcoming season. Find the most updated list among various sportsbooks to compare the best odds in the table below.

NBA MVP Odds 2022-23: Favorites

Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic is my “far and away” favorite to win the MVP in the 2022-23 NBA Season. For the third straight season, Doncic has the best preseason odds to win MVP. Luka has had a few strong seasons, finishing fourth, sixth, and fifth in MVP in the past three seasons, respectively; however, his physical shape coming into the regular seasons has been questionable in the past. By the middle and end of the season, Doncis has always been in full form, putting up absurd numbers every night. The bottom line is that the beginning of the season has to be better.

Through the first 11 games last season, Doncic averaged four points less than he averaged for the whole season. From then on, Doncic posted over 29 points per game in addition to more than nine rebounds and assists. Luckily for Luka’s backers, he has looked slimmer than ever while playing for the Slovenia national team. As long as Doncic stays healthy and comes into the season in great shape, it would be hard to imagine a player posting more ridiculous stats than Doncic. Check out the graphic below, courtesy of bball-index, which demonstrates the gap between Doncic and the rest of the league as a playmaker and a one-on-one player.

2022-23-playmaking-talent-one-on-one-talent-nba-chart

 

Giannis Antetokounmpo 

Giannis has improved every year, and we still don’t know where his real ceiling rests. He just finished yet another successful season averaging the most points he ever has in a single year with 29.9 points per game. By NBA standards, Giannis is just now entering his “prime years”: he’s only 27 years old!

It would not shock me to see him take the next step during the 2022-23 season and put up ungodly stats on ridiculous efficiency. As a matter of fact, I’m expecting this, as Giannis now has two of the four highest PER seasons. If he builds on the improvements he has already made to his jump shot, this future could hit, especially if the Bucks can stay healthy and finish atop the Eastern Conference.

NBA MVP Odds 2022-23: Dark Horses

Nikola Jokic 

This seems unfathomable, but Nikola Jokic is technically a dark horse by my standards (+1000 or worse in the preseason.) Jokic has won back-to-back MVPs without much pushback. Even with Joel Embiid putting together his most complete season to date in 2021-22, he still finished 169 points shy of Jokic in voting at the end of the year. Jokic also had a historic season by PER standards with mind-boggling efficiency. 

Only three players have won three straight MVPs, and no one has done it since Larry Bird 35 years ago, but if anyone can do it, it’s the PER (player efficiency rating) king! The main obstacle that Jokic will face is the likelihood that his usage rate will drop quite a bit with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr back from their injuries. If the offense still consistently runs through “Joker,” he will be in the race for a third-straight season.

Ja Morant 

Last season’s Most Improved Player hasn’t even sniffed his ceiling yet. Morant has made considerable strides in his first three seasons in the NBA, and slowing down doesn’t seem to be in his vocabulary. If Morant can add a consistent three-pointer to his arsenal (say 36% or better on volume), he will be borderline unstoppable.

Towards the end of last season, Morant flexed his rebounding prowess, which has not always been apparent. For example, he averaged eight rebounds in the playoffs, but less than six on the year. The same can be said for his assists numbers, which went up three per game during the playoffs! A few things will need to happen to give this bet life: the Grizzlies need to finish first in the Western Conference, and Morant will need to average a near triple-double. It’s definitely possible.

NBA MVP Odds 2022-23: Stay Away

Karl Anthony Towns Get 

This should be self-explanatory, but I would not suggest throwing an MVP future down on Karl Anthony-Towns. The truth is that the Minnesota Timberwolves are Anthony Edwards’ team now, and while KAT is a proven, versatile, offensive weapon, he has seen his usage rate drop significantly from  29% to 27.7%.

Additionally, KAT is a mediocre defender, so his plus-minus will never be eye-popping enough to differentiate him from other talented, high-scoring bigs like Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid. At the end of the day, Edwards is the clear-cut No. 1 option on this team and it’s hard to imagine KAT overtaking that role.

Kawhi Leonard 

When healthy, Kawhi Leonard is one of the five best players in the NBA; there are probably not many experts or fans that would argue with that. The problem is that Leonard never really seems to be healthy for an entire season. In fact, he has not played in 61 or more games since 2016. Leonard is also fresh off a knee injury that kept him out an entire season, and he hasn’t seen game action in over a year.

Even if he comes back and resembles the player he was before his knee injury, he will likely yield some offensive usage to Paul George, John Wall, and Norman Powell. The Clippers are loaded, and sometimes, being the best player on the best team gives you a shot at MVP. I just don’t see Leonard putting up numbers strong enough to contend with guys like Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, or Joel Embiid.

Anthony Davis 

Don’t do it, I’m serious. Davis cannot stay healthy, and while that is no fault of his own, it should not be to your betting detriment. In the past two seasons, Davis has played 40 games or fewer and has put up marginal stats by his standards. In the 2020-21 season, Davis averaged 21.8 points and 7.9 rebounds on a 49/26/74 shooting split; his following 2021-22 season was not much better. There are plenty of other dark horses to take a shot on that have great value.

Drew is one of the NBA Lead Writers at Lineups.com, specializing in betting content such as game predictions and player props. With a deep knowledge of players and prospects, Drew has an extensive edge in covering everything NBA.

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