NBA MVP Odds 2023-24: Latest MVP Odds For Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, & Luka Doncic

NBA MVP odds for the upcoming 2023-24 season are available. As always, you should expect the NBA MVP odds for each player listed below to change frequently throughout the year. Further, these MVP odds can fluctuate a lot all the way until the award is announced during the postseason. Take a look at all of the updated NBA MVP odds below.

NBA MVP Odds 2023-24

Shop around NBA MVP odds 2023-24 for the upcoming season. Find the most updated list among various sportsbooks to compare the best NBA MVP odds in the table below. Nikola Jokic has the best NBA MVP odds heading into the 2023-24 season.

NBA MVP Odds 2023-24: MVP Ladder

With the 2023-24 regular season officially here, we have the NBA MVP Odds Ladder available below. We will update this ladder monthly until the awards are announced, so continue to check in throughout the year, as there will certainly be a great deal of change.

*Last Updated 11/27/23

1. Nikola Jokic

• 2023-24 Statistics: 28.8 ppg, 13.4 rpg, 8.9 apg
• Last Ranking: 1
• NBA MVP Odds:

It’s getting downright laughable, isn’t it? Jokic continues to be the best player on the planet by a seemingly wide margin; he has stepped up to the plate in the absence of fellow star Jamal Murray and helped keep this Denver team afloat. Jokic continues to raise his ceiling as a player every time we think it can’t possibly go any higher.

2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

• 2023-24 Statistics: 30.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 6.2 apg
• Last Ranking: NR
• NBA MVP Odds:

SGA has expedited the “rebuilding process” for the Oklahoma City Thunder, leading them to second place in the Western Conference through November. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging roughly 30 points, six rebounds, and six assists and has shot an uber-efficient 53% from the field; he continues to be one of the most clutch and clever players in the league. OKC is a real threat and its sudden rise to the top of the west could give SGA the narrative needed to win an MVP.

3. Jayson Tatum

• 2023-24 Statistics: 28.1 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 4.1 apg
• Last Ranking: 4
• NBA MVP Odds:

If there are any MVP voters who still die on the “best player, best team” hill, then Jayson Tatum likely has their vote. Tatum is averaging 28 points and nine rebounds per game on the Boston Celtics, a team that features him, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday. Averaging numbers like that with so much talent around him speaks volumes about the quality of basketball he is playing.

4. Joel Embiid

• 2023-24 Statistics: 32.1 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 6.3 apg
• Last Ranking: 2
• NBA MVP Odds:

Joel Embiid has thrived in the absence of James Harden, and so have the Philadelphia 76ers, who are just 1.5 games back of first place in the top-heavy Eastern Conference. Embiid has had some marvelous games, including a 48-point outing (in just three quarters), capped off by a remarkable 29-point third quarter.

5. Luka Doncic

• 2023-24 Statistics: 30.5 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 7.8 apg
• Last Ranking: 3
• NBA MVP Odds:

Questions about the efficacy of the roster construction in Dallas have all but dissipated. Luka Doncic is again averaging nearly a 30-point triple-double on the season and has added a handful of clutch shots and moments to his ever-growing resume. The Mavericks are having great success early on and are only one game out of second place in the hyper-competitive Western Conference.

NBA MVP Odds 2023-24: Preseason/Early Season Favorites

Like last year, our team will put out our favorite preseason/early season favorites to win MVP for the upcoming 2023-24 regular season. Our favorite picks heading into next season are Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker, and Jayson Tatum. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton are our two favorite darkhorse MVP candidates, as both will be heavily relied upon for their respective up-and-coming squads. Detailed analysis for all of these candidates can be found below!

Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic is one of our leading preseason MVP candidates for the 2023-24 season. Doncic’s NBA MVP odds put him amongst the listed favorites to win the award, and it is no surprise why that is the case: he posted averages of roughly 32 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists. Frankly, Doncic could record a triple-double this season, especially with Kyrie Irving taking some of the scoring pressure off of him.

However, despite being one of the preseason favorites for multiple years in a row, including this year, Doncic has not been able to close the deal. Regardless, he is well-positioned heading into the 2023-24 campaign, especially since he will enter training camp in peak shape after playing for his home country, Slovenia, in the FIBA World Cup. If you thought Doncic has had to do everything for the Dallas Mavericks over the past few seasons, just watch some of Slovenia’s games in the coming days.

There will be a few main factors for Luka’s chances of winning MVP. First, he has to be in the best shape of his life, even better than the beginning of the 2022-23 regular season. This factor is extremely doable, as he will have been playing competitively for Slovenia in the months leading up to the preseason. Further, the Mavericks missing the playoffs last season should motivate Doncic even more than in previous seasons. Of course, that is more speculation, but there is no doubt that Doncic is amongst the most competitive players in the NBA.

The second factor is the toughest: The Dallas Mavericks have to be somewhat of a contender in the Western Conference, which has as much parity as it has had in many years. Russell Westbrook and Nikola Jokic put together historic seasons, but their teams only finished sixth in their respective conference.

If the Mavs finish worse than sixth, there is virtually no shot that Doncic will win MVP. Luckily, Doncic has some help: Kyrie Irving, an ever-evolving offensive threat in Jaden Hardy, and some newly acquired players like Grant Williams, Dereck Lively II, Seth Curry, and Richaun Holmes will assist Doncic in the Mavericks’ quest to return to the postseason.

Check out Doncic’s NBA MVP odds above and his incredible combination of one-on-one talent and usage rate in 2022-23 below via Bball-Index’s Headshot Tool.

Devin Booker

While his individual offensive statistics don’t seem to change much year over year (or, at least, haven’t since the 2017-18 season), Booker has gotten substantially better in all facets of the game, especially in his playmaking. At times, Booker had to play the role of facilitator, especially in Chris Paul’s absence, which will now be permanent.

Even though the Suns will be getting Bradley Beal back in that trade, Booker should still have extremely high usage. As a matter of fact, Booker posted roughly 30 points, seven assists, and five rebounds per game on a 49/41/88 shooting split in 14 games without Chris Paul last season.

Further, there is the reality of injuries: Kevin Durant has only played between 35-55 games in the past three seasons, while Beal has only eclipsed 60 games once in the past four seasons. With the lack of depth that the Suns have currently and will likely still have at the beginning of the 2023-24 season, a few injuries could force Booker to play at a superhuman level to keep Phoenix in contention. If this happens and he is able to propel the Suns to a strong standing in the West, Booker’s NBA MVP odds will tighten quickly.

Jayson Tatum 

After a solid start to the 2022-23 season for both Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics, he seemed destined to bring home his first-ever MVP; Boston was in first place, dominating everyone behind a historically efficient offense, and Tatum was posting 30 points and ten rebounds virtually every game.

Unfortunately, Boston slid down to second place in the Eastern Conference after Giannis and the Bucks put together a massive winning streak. Meanwhile, Joel Embiid and the Sixers catapulted to third place; he averaged 33 points and 10 rebounds for a team that many believed could be championship contenders.

Still, Tatum posted huge numbers, averaging 30 points, nine rebounds, and five assists on 47% shooting from the floor. Additionally, he is only 25 years old and has not even hit the typical age for an NBA player’s “prime.” Tatum’s improved playmaking (five assists per game during the 2022-23 season) and defensive effort will do him favors next season when voters have another opportunity to choose their MVP. Plus, they are tired of Embiid, Jokic, and Giannis; it is time for Tatum to win one!

Nikola Jokic 

Well, it seems like every question or concern that critics of Nikola Jokic had before the 2022-23 campaign has been answered; he won an NBA Championship, despite having a mediocre bench, he posted numbers that were just as impressive in the playoffs as they were in the regular season, and he proved that the regular season MVP could have just as easily been his for the third consecutive year if voters had not gotten fatigued.

There is a hesitancy to put Jokic in the preseason favorites to win the MVP category for a number of reasons, but we are still doing it out of sheer respect for his dominance, especially in the postseason (which will go down as one of the most historic runs in NBA history.)

One concern is that the voters fatigue easily, and even a semi-interesting narrative for another player can catapult them over “Joker,” despite his ludicrous numbers and performances. Agendas are everything.

Building on that concern is another viable one: How much better can Jokic be? If Jokic does not improve his numbers, or at least have an equally dominant season while the Nuggets finish with an even better record than last year, where will the agenda for him be?

Voters and fans alike seem to bore of “consistent greatness” quickly. We grow accustomed to seeing someone dominate opponents at the highest level for long periods of time and expect that from them over and over again; if they aren’t improving, then they are regressing, in a sense.

However, it is difficult to improve on a 25/12/10 season with 63.2% shooting from the field. Further, it is going to be a challenge for Jokic to jump from No. 2 to No. 1 (over Michael Jordan, no less) in career PER (player efficiency rating) and continue to be an advanced analytics unicorn year after year.

Ultimately, our concern lies not with Jokic and his output but, instead, with the voters who bore too easily. Jokic’s NBA MVP odds just don’t have enough value for us to take a swing on, but don’t let us discourage you; he’s amongst the greatest big men in the history of the game and absolutely has a shot.

NBA MVP Odds 2023-24: Preseason/Early Season Dark Horses

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

How many NBA players averaged at least 31.4 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.8 rebounds last season besides Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? Two. Only Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard hit those metrics; however, under the new rules for individual awards, Lillard would not have qualified for MVP, as he only played in 58 games. And needless to say, the Thunder finished with a better record than the Mavericks.

For the 2022-23 campaign, SGA finished fifth in MVP voting, which is an incredible feat in a league that features LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Steph Curry, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, and so many more superstars. Can SGA climb even higher on the MVP ladder this season?

Frankly, it is more than possible. For one, the Oklahoma City Thunder should continue to improve as a team, with the potential to finish in the top five or six in the Western Conference, especially with the return of Chet Holmgren; they desperately needed an interior rim presence and a big man who can help stretch the floor on the other end. Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey should be even better, as they are two young, up-and-coming talents. Further, the depth of Oklahoma City has also improved with the arrival of Cason Wallace and Vasilije Micic.

Assuming that SGA posts similar numbers and drags this team to a top four or five seed in the Western Conference, he might be new and interesting enough for voters to lean towards writing his name down in lieu of former winners like Giannis, Jokic, or Embiid. If SGA’s performance for Team Canada in the FIBA World Cup is any indication of what we can expect this upcoming season, then he might even top last season’s stats.

Tyrese Haliburton 

Even though Haliburton is entering just his fourth NBA season and is only 23 years old, he has already done something that no other player in NBA history has done: he averaged at least 20 points and ten assists on at least 40% shooting from behind the arc for an entire season. It seems wild that no other player has accomplished this feat, but, in general, the higher the volume a player has, the less efficient they are. Not with Haliburton.

What makes Tyrese such an intriguing dark horse candidate is his overall importance and impact on the Pacers: when he was on the floor last year, they were playing .500 ball, boasting one of the better up-tempo offenses in the league. However, when he was out with injury, they were one of the worst teams in the league.

If Indiana finishes as a top four-ish seed in the Eastern Conference behind a Herculean Haliburton season, he could slip away as an MVP winner, especially if he continues to improve as an isolation scorer. He took nearly three more shots per game from the 2021-22 season to the 2022-23 season; another leap like that with steady efficiency could propel him to 25-ish points per game.

Ultimately, an increase in overall usage in the form of taking on more of a Trae Young-like role (going from a 23.8% usage rate last year to 32%+ this upcoming season) could find Hali finishing with close to 25 points and 15 assists per game. Add in a potential for improving as a rebounder and having the ability to record roughly two steals per game, and his NBA MVP odds suddenly seem to hold substantial value.

NBA MVP Odds 2023-24: Preseason/Early Season “Stay Away From”

Giannis Antetokounmpo 

The MVP outlook for Giannis Antetokounmpo looked completely different just a few weeks ago. Out of the blue, the Milwaukee Bucks made the most considerable off-season trade, moving Jrue Holiday to Portland, Grayson Allen to Phoenix, and a few first-rounders/swaps to bring in All-Star Damian Lillard. Lillard will join Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton to form a new “Big Three” in Milwaukee. The Bucks were already championship favorites, but this move has plunged them even farther ahead.

For Giannis, the Bucks’ championship hopes have substantially improved; however, the viability of his MVP odds has dropped quite a bit. Giannis posted outrageous stats last year (31 points, 12 rebounds, and six assists per game on 55% shooting from the field), but Middleton was out for a large portion of the season, meaning that Antetokounmpo had to increase his usage on the offensive end to give the Bucks the best chance for success.

With Lillard in the picture now and Middleton returning in full health, Giannis’ usage rate will drop, and so will his stats. Antetokounmpo is much more focused on a championship than an MVP award, which he has two of, so don’t expect the same offensive output. It just won’t happen unless he suddenly becomes a passable three-point shooter.

This is the risk of betting on futures; injuries will happen, trades will be made, and player’s roles will change. Giannis will still be a monster in Milwaukee and one of the best players in the league, but it is unlikely that he will be an MVP candidate with Lillard in town.

LeBron James

It is surprising that this actually has to be stated: Don’t bet on LeBron James’  to win the MVP award for the 2023-24 regular season. His NBA MVP odds carry no value at the moment.

Sure, LeBron is still amongst the best players in the NBA, and his continued dominance likely makes him the greatest basketball player of all time; however, LeBron will be 39 years old during this next season (his birthday is in December), and the oldest recipient of this award was Karl Malone, who was 35 years old. Again, most records are meant to be broken, so this is not the only deterrent, but it is imperative to keep it in mind.

There is also a new rule that requires players to play in at least 65 games (and a minimum of 20 minutes in all of those) if they want to be eligible for individual season awards. LeBron has not played in 65 or more games since the 2019-20 regular season, so it is difficult to see that happening this year, especially after a significant foot injury. His ultimate goal now is to play with his son. To do that, he needs to make it out of this upcoming season unscathed.

Even if James plays in 65 or more games and defies “Father Time” one more year, what will be required of him to do so feels nearly impossible. Since James was not all that close to winning an MVP in either of the past two seasons, despite averaging roughly 30 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists, it seems likely that he would have to perform at an even higher level.

The fact of the matter is that James will not be needed to perform at this level when he is on the floor, as the Lakers finally have the necessary help around him. Los Angeles won’t be the best team in the Western Conference, but it will be a playoff-contending team with plenty of weapons to help unload some offensive responsibilities from “King James.” There is simply no value in betting LeBron’s NBA MVP odds at +1900.

Trae Young

It is easy to look at the 26 points and ten assists that Trae Young averaged last season and think that betting on his long NBA MVP odds might be a good idea.

However, there are a number of reasons why Young is not a strong candidate for the 2023-24 MVP award. The first reason is the Atlanta Hawks’ success or lack thereof. Atlanta finished as the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference last year after beating the Miami Heat on the road in the first play-in game; however, it had the eighth-best record in the East during the regular season.

The Hawks did not really get any better this off-season; they traded John Collins, and Saddiq Bey or Jalen Johnson is likely to fill his role. Still, that is not nearly enough of a splash to make this team competitive enough for Young to be shoved into the MVP spotlight.

While Nikola Jokic did win the NBA MVP award with the Denver Nuggets, finishing in merely sixth place in the Western Conference, he had a historically efficient season and also did so without Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray, the other two best players on their team. Westbrook did something similar when he averaged a triple-double throughout an entire season. These teams were truly bad, and those players willed them into the postseason behind historic output.

The point here is that those two players are more the exception than the rule, and there are a number of teams that should finish with a better record in the East than Atlanta: Milwaukee, Boston, New York, Cleveland, Miami, and Philadelphia. Even teams like Chicago, Indiana, and Toronto could finish with a better record than the Hawks.

Additionally, we must look at what it takes to become an NBA MVP. Young didn’t even finish in the Top 12 in MVP voting last year and also had one of his most inefficient seasons yet, which is a cause for concern in the future. He will have such a difficult time posting such incredulous offensive stats that they more than make up for being a defensive liability, too. There are far more favorable NBA MVP odds for other dark horse candidates available, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton.

Kawhi Leonard

Why even waste the money betting on any Kawhi Leonard future at this point in his career? Leonard is more than capable (in terms of talent) of winning an NBA MVP, but he has virtually no chance of doing so this upcoming season for a number of reasons that can’t be ignored.

First, Leonard has sustained a number of injuries over the past few seasons that have significantly limited his availability in the regular season. While there was always an unwritten rule about voting on players who took the court in the majority of their team’s games, it is now official: players have to play in 65 regular season games to be eligible for the award. 

Leonard has been in the league for 12 NBA seasons and has only played 65 or more games in three of them, with the most recent coming in the 2016-17 campaign. Even if “The Klaw” maintains decent overall physical health this season, the Los Angeles Clippers still give him too many rest games, and that is likely out of his control, too. Even the new concept of fining teams for resting two star players at once might not be enough to give this future any life.

As if this was not enough of a deterrent to steer clear from Leonard’s NBA MVP odds, the last time a player who was 32 years or older won the MVP was in the 1998-99 season: 25 years ago. 

If you want to take a “swing for the fences” candidate for your NBA MVP future, look elsewhere. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s NBA MVP odds are only a little tighter, and he fits all primary MVP criteria. His potential is much higher to win during the 2023-24 campaign. The same could be said about Devin Booker, who continues to improve year after year and looked great alongside Kevin Durant in limited games last season.

Damian Lillard

Too many questions, not enough value. That would be our one-sentence tagline about Damian Lillard’s NBA MVP odds for this upcoming season. Lillard wants to be moved to Miami before the start of the 2023-24 campaign, while the Trail Blazers have refused to trade him for less than the value that they believe he is worth. It becomes increasingly likely that a third team and, perhaps, even a fourth team would have to be added into the mix to make that deal work. Messy.

Last season, Lillard put up obnoxiously impressive individual numbers for Portland, averaging 32.2 points, 7.3 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game in just over 36 minutes per game. Still, the Blazers missed the playoffs again, with Lillard coming nowhere near the MVP ladder.

If Dame were traded to the Heat, and he posted the same numbers on similar efficiency while leading them to a top two or three seed in the Eastern Conference, he would have an outside shot at winning MVP.

However, there are a number of issues with that scenario. First, Dame will sacrifice shots in Miami; it was one thing for him to get a ton of shots up in Portland, which relied on his offensive output at all times, but that won’t be the case in South Beach. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, two All-Stars in their own right, will naturally absorb some of that usage, leading to fewer shots.

Additionally, Miami (29th in pace last year) plays a slower brand of basketball than Portland; it often relies on its defense to win games, which does not pair as cleanly with Lillard’s style of play.

At the end of the day, even if Lillard gets traded to Miami, the fit is perfect, and he can replicate his offensive output for the Heat, it still might not be enough to hold off Embiid, Jokic, Giannis, and other high usage players. Don’t let the “mystery box” of Lillard potentially playing in Miami entice you into this bet.

Donovan Mitchell 

Donovan Mitchell’s first season with the Cleveland Cavaliers was a major success; the team was competitive and Mitchell put together his most productive and efficient season in his young career. How can that not be a positive sign for his NBA MVP odds?

Look who Mitchell has to beat out in order to win an NBA MVP: Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and several others. It is challenging to see that happening even 3.85% of the time, which is the implied odds that DraftKings has put on Mitchell to win the MVP award for the 2023-24 regular season.

There are a few negative factors for Mitchell in his quest for an NBA MVP award. The first factor is the inevitable progression of his teammates around him, which should be terrific for team success but not necessarily for individual success. Darius Garland and Evan Mobley are both on the rise, ascending to All-Star-caliber status. Mobley and Garland will absord some of the usage that Mitchell had last season, limiting his upside to post much better stats.

Additionally, the Cavaliers’ ceiling as a team in the Eastern Conference is somewhat limited after the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks made significant trades to grab All-Stars to join their already dominant teams. Cleveland’s biggest move in the off-season was a sign-and-trade for Max Strus, which is unlikely to move the needle relative to those other teams. If Mitchell posts similar stats but Cleveland only improves to the No. 3 seed, it won’t be enough.

NBA MVP Odds 2023-24: Recent Trends

A good practice when betting on NBA futures, especially individual awards, is to try and identify recent trends in the last few winners. For instance, players who will be heavily relied upon within their respective offenses have a much better chance of securing an MVP than players on teams with many playmakers. Check out recent trends for the NBA MVP award and NBA MVP odds below, as well as our predictions!

Recent MVPs

• 2023: Joel Embiid (usage rate – 36.8%)
• 2022: Nikola Jokic (usage rate – 31.8%)
• 2021: Nikola Jokic (usage rate – 29.5%)
• 2020: Giannis Antetokounmpo (usage rate – 37.3%)
• 2019: Giannis Antetokounmpo (usage rate – 32.0%)
• 2018: James Harden (usage rate – 35.9%)
• 2017: Russell Westbrook (usage rate – 34.1%)

NBA MVP Odds Trends and Predictions

Based on the usage rate percentages above, five of the past seven MVPs had a usage rate of 32% and above (Jokic’s 2021 and 2022 should be considered outliers in this data set, as there are no other candidates playing near his level of efficiency.)

In order to properly assess who has a legitimate chance to win MVP in the 2023-24 regular season, we have to eliminate players that will not command an extraordinarily high usage rate. During the 2022-23 regular season, only nine players roughly had a usage rate of 32% or higher: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, Damian Lillard, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Trae Young, Devin Booker, and Donovan Mitchell.

For the sake of the argument that some players might take a leap from last year to this year in usage rate, we can include a few other players who we predict will have the ball in their hands a substantial amount: De’Aaron Fox, Nikola Jokic, Mikal Bridges (30+% usage rate in his games for Brooklyn) and Anthony Edwards.

That leaves us with 13 legitimate candidates to bring home the MVP award in the 2023-24 NBA season. In short, that is not nearly strong enough of a variable to get us down to just a few guys. Let’s look at some other trends.

Another trend that we have seen in recent years is the age of the MVP. Joel Embiid just turned 29 at the end of the regular season but was playing the majority of the year at 28 years old. Jokic was 26 and 27 years old in his two MVP years, while Giannis was 24 and 25 years old during his back-to-back run.

Meanwhile, Harden and Westbrook were also both 28 years old when they won their MVP awards. Essentially, players 28 years and under have dominated the award for a while; there have only been a few players 30 years or older to win the NBA MVP award.

Therefore, it is reasonably safe to rule out other players that people might be high on, like Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, and Kyrie Irving. Interestingly enough, only one of these players met the usage criteria above; therefore, we have only eliminated one of the 13 players: Damian Lillard.

On the flip side, no player in recent history (outside of 22-year-old Derrick Rose in the 2010-11 season) has won an MVP while being younger than 24 years old. Anthony Edwards is still relatively young and growing, and the Timberwolves’ upside as a team is limited, in our opinion.

Another measurement we can use to weed out the remaining players is to highlight the valued trend of being an all-around facilitator and creator on the offensive end of the floor. In Westbrook’s MVP season, he averaged a triple-double while every player named MVP after him posted absurd numbers, particularly in the rebound and assist categories.

Out of the past seven MVPs, six have averaged at least a double-double, with 2017-18 James Harden (an impressive 30 ppg while leading the Rockets to the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference) being the only outlier. Still, Harden posted roughly nine assists per game in that season, putting him very close to a double-double.

With this in mind, we will eliminate De’Aaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell, and Mikal Bridges; they simply don’t stuff the stat sheet enough in the assist and rebound categories to contend with players like Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, and Doncic.

The last trend we can lean heavily on is the final standing of the MVPs team. Of the past seven MVPs, five have played on teams that have finished third or better in their respective conferences. The two teams that finished outside of that were sixth: Denver in the 2021-22 season and Oklahoma City in the 2016-17 season.

Westbrook averaged a triple-double that season and Jokic had one of the most efficient seasons in the history of the NBA in his season. Outliers. The only player capable of posting numbers like that over the course of a season and also having an average team that squeaks into the playoffs is Luka Doncic.

Besides Doncic, we can feel pretty solid about eliminating Trae Young, as the Atlanta Hawks don’t seem to be in a strong position to finish as a top-six team in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee, Boston, Philadelphia, Miami, New York, and Cleveland should finish higher than Atlanta. The rest of the candidates have a chance at finishing strong in their conference.

So, who are we left with? The remaining candidates are Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, Devin Booker, De’Aaron Fox, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Lastly, voters are likely going to be wary of giving Joel Embiid another MVP after a disappointing postseason, especially considering the criticism they have faced since Jokic took the Nuggets to the NBA Finals and won. The voter fatigue is already setting in on Embiid after that underwhelming playoff run, while Jokic had yet another historic season and didn’t get selected.

While Embiid or Jokic could absolutely win another MVP, these voters get tired quickly. It feels easy to include Giannis into that group with Jokic and Embiid, as he has won two of the past five MVPs; however, Giannis’ usage rate of roughly 39% last season, which was the fourth-highest ever behind three of the most insane individual offensive seasons ever (Kobe, Harden, and Westbrook), gives us enough belief that he could push through the fatigue.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Devin Booker, and Jayson Tatum are my preseason favorites to take home the 2023-24 MVP, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is my favorite dark horse. Keep checking in on the latest NBA MVP odds and our NBA MVP odds ladder above!

NBA MVP Odds FAQ

• • Which player has the most MVP awards of all time?
  • Have any players won back-to-back MVP awards?
  • Who is the reigning NBA MVP?
  • How are NBA MVP odds calculated?
  • What is “voter fatigue,” and how does it affect NBA MVP odds?