The NBA was become a year round sport, and we are already itching to see who has the best odds to make the playoffs. DraftKings Sportsbook has listed odds on making and missing the playoffs for all teams. These odds point in the direction of how they expect the season to go. Of course the elite teams are going to be heavy favorites to make the playoffs, but there are teams on the cusp that provide some strong value. These odds can work the other way, where the rebuilding teams have no value to miss the playoffs either. Overall we want to find the sweet spot and get strong value. Reminder to stay updating on all betting news from our Lineups Betting writers. Let’s jump in.
NBA Playoff Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
|Team||Odds to Make The Playoffs||Odds to Miss This Playoffs|
Is There Any Value At The Top Of The League?
There is no purpose for betting on teams like Milwaukee, Philadelphia, or the Los Angeles Clippers to make the playoffs. The Bucks come in at -5000 to make the playoffs, where the Sixers and Clippers are both -3335. This is the cream of the crop, and to make this simple, to win $100 on the Bucks making the playoffs, you need to wager $5,000. Keeping this train of thought throughout the article is important. Even looking at teams like Utah, Denver, Houston, Boston, and Los Angeles all have odds between -500 and -1000. These are not optimal payouts. You are better off in finding better odds with these teams for future bets like winning the division, conference, or finals.
This past offseason created a lot of movement, but most of the same teams are predicted to make the playoffs that did last season. With the Lakers heavily favored to make the playoffs, this would mean one of the western teams dropping out. After moving Paul George and Russell Westbrook, the Thunder are easy targets to bank on missing the playoffs this year. However, teams like Dallas, New Orleans, and San Antonio should all be battling for a final spot. In terms of the top western teams, there just isn’t much return value.
In the eastern conference last season you had the 6th, 7th, and 8th seed all within a game of each other. Charlotte and Miami both missed the 8th seed by two games. The front six teams remain somewhat of a lock barring injury to make the playoffs, where the last two seeds are really up for grabs. Orlando and Detroit rounded out the eastern conference last season, and have some decent odds of doing so again. However, Miami’s addition of Jimmy Butler gives them a chance to get back to the postseason. With no real value at the top of the east, we will turn to the bottom half.
Detroit Pistons To Make Playoffs (+110)
The Pistons are currently +110 to make the playoffs and -134 to miss. There have been some rumors of trading Blake Griffin, which would be a big set back if they did, however this roster looks to be pretty stable heading into the new season. Detroit went 41-41 last season, just narrowing Charlotte and Miami for the 8th seed. Charlotte is not going to be in the mix losing Kemba Walker over the offseason, and Washington is not likely going to be in the mix. Miami is their competitor, and you have to say Detroit is in contention with Orlando to round out the east.
Health is always going to be important when betting on win totals, but Griffin’s injury history does create some risk. They mainly stayed quiet, but drafted Sekou Doumboiuya and signed Derrick Rose and Markieff Morris. All three are plus moves for the offseason in Detroit, especially given their small market abilities. The backcourt will need to pick up play, and we saw flashes again from Reggie Jackson. Even with Miami likely making a push for the playoffs, I like Detroit as a potential option to overtake Orlando. With that being said, adding in Orlando missing at +110 is in play. Detroit benefits from playing in a semi-weak division with Chicago and Cleveland under them.
Miami Heat To Make Playoffs (-210)
Adding Jimmy Butler to a team that just missed the playoffs is going to give them a bump. Miami are -210 favorites to make the playoffs, which is a reasonable price. Even with the Heat trading Hassan Whiteside, this frees up Bam Adebayo to take a big step forward. Miami will retain Goran Dragic, but Tyler Herro is the name to watch out for in the backcourt. His sharpshooting gives the Heat something they desperately needed last year. KZ Okpala can step into a backup forward role, and Kelly Olynyk isn’t the worst option to have at the forward position. Overall this team should be good enough to beat out what is a fairly weak eastern conference in the bottom half. Miami is predicted to be one of the higher improving teams in the win column.
Miami is in the southeast division, which is one you want to be in right now. A 39-win Charlotte team will most certainly drop down after Kemba leaving. An improvement in winning games against the east will push Miami into the playoffs this year. This also ties into Orlando as a potential miss bet at +110. While I would have liked the Heat to try and move on from Dragic, his contract still remains an issue. Miami was in talks with a potential Chris Paul deal, but that is going to have to wait. If they do end up making a big move, it is wise to lock this in early before the odds move to a range not worth betting on.
San Antonio Spurs To Miss Playoffs (+162)
The Spurs went 48-34 last season, finishing out the season as the 7th seed in the western conference. If you are high on New Orleans or Dallas making a playoff push, or even a team like Minnesota, then the Spurs are another potential threat to fall out of the postseason after making it last season. We are already tossing Oklahoma City out of the playoffs, and inserting the Lakers into the mix. Hard to bet against a Greg Popovich team and missing the postseason, but this isn’t a squad near the talent of the west right now. They are also not on par with the way the game is being played. DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are not an electric duo, and will have competition with the up and coming division.
While the Spurs will be a competitive team, the win-loss record has a wide range of outcomes. With the west getting much better, and teams below San Antonio on the come up, there is certainly a chance that Dallas or New Orleans could make an early push and sneak into the postseason. The Spurs were able to do well against the division, but that isn’t a given to repeat. They were also 30-22 against the conference, which I can see taking a step backwards. The Pelicans at +320 and the Mavs at +260 are interesting pairing bets with the Spurs missing out.