NBA Player Prop Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Heat vs Celtics Game 6 (5/27/23)

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NBA Player Prop Picks (5/27/23)

After snatching a commanding 3-0 series lead, Miami has dropped the last two games to make it a 3-2 lead. Boston is no stranger to overcoming 3-2 deficits, and they will have Game 7 at home. Therefore, Miami must treat Game 6 as if it’s an elimination game because going back to Boston after blowing a 3-0 lead is terrifying. Can Jimmy Butler once again lead the Heat to the NBA Finals? Or will Boston do the unthinkable and come back from down 3-0?

Check out our list of favorite player props for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals below along with relevant betting analysis for each pick.

Derrick White Over 2.5 3PM (-113)

White has hit this line in every game this series, and it remains a superb matchup for him. The Heat rank 26th defending catch and shoot threes in terms of opponent shot quality and allow them at the 3rd highest frequency (per ShotQuality). They are also 21st defending off the dribble threes with the 4th highest opponent frequency. To claim that Miami’s three-point defense needs work is an understatement. 

White finished the regular season at a 38.1 3PT% on 4.8 attempts per game, but he has boosted those numbers to a 47.9 3PT% on 5.2 attempts per game this postseason. Miami’s desire to overhelp against Jayson Tatum and trot out a zone defense means White is receiving open looks from deep. Given his shooting prowess, he can make the most of his high volume and scorch Miami via a barrage of threes.

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Caleb Martin Over 1.5 3PM (-146)

Like White, Martin has also hit this in every game this series. Against Boston, he’s shooting a spectacular 45.2 3PT% on 6.2 attempts per game. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are placing an enormous amount of stress around the basket, which has opened up three-point opportunities for Heat shooters. Since both read defenses at a high level, they are not missing the pass either. Martin is taking advantage of his open attempts plus the fact that Herro remains out due to injury. If Vincent misses Game 6 too, then Martin’s already increased volume should see another bump. 

The line is slightly juiced, but it still holds value to me. For the prop to hold a positive expected value, it must hit around 60% of the time. Therefore, does Martin make two threes here 60% of the time? Based on his minutes, shooting streak, and Butler/Adebayo’s playmaking, it’s definitely the case to me.

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Al Horford First Basket Exact 3PM (+1800)

The tip-off is a coin toss, although I would lean Boston to win it. Horford ranked 2nd on the Celtics during the regular season in Team First FGA%, which is the frequency in which a player took their respective team’s First FGA of the game. It’s typically an excellent predictor of First Basket success. As discussed above, Miami’s three-point defense is lacking, and Adebayo hasn’t consistently wanted to fully come out and contest Horford’s three-point shot this series. 

66% of Horford’s FGA have been 3PA against Miami, and that trend should continue with Boston eager to run a 5 Out offense. He’s stuck in a shooting slump, but Horford is a deadly shooter that likely regresses to his mean at any moment.

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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