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NBA Player Prop Picks (6/12/23)
Check out our favorite player props from Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets.
The Nuggets own a commanding 3-1 series lead; only the 2016 Cavaliers have ever come back from this deficit in the NBA Finals. Change the scope to all playoff series across NBA history, and 13 of 280 teams (4.6%) have accomplished this feat.
Can Miami pull off the miracle and win their first title since 2013?
SGP – Aaron Gordon 4+ Rebounds, Bruce Brown 1+ 3PM, Jimmy Butler 4+ Assists (-132)
For this Same Game Parlay to hold a positive expected value, it must hit at least 57% of the time. Is this the case? I believe so.
This series is an excellent matchup for Gordon due to Miami’s undersized roster. Gordon usually has a smaller player guarding him, which facilitates rebounding. The Heat are not particularly efficient on offense; as a result, there are plenty of defensive rebounds available. Plus, Porter Jr’s minutes getting decreased removes rebounding competition for Gordon. For the series, Gordon has recorded 6, 7, 10, and 7 rebounds while averaging 11.8 rebound chances per game.
Brown’s stats from three in this series are the following: 2/3, 1/3, 1/3, 3/5. Porter Jr’s slump has allowed Brown more minutes with the starting unit where he frequently spots up from deep. He’s a good shooter that should get 3-5 attempts here, so he should make one with ease.
Butler is the primary playmaker for Miami who will happily pass all game if it gives his team the best chance. Butler has produced 4+ assists in 18 of 21 playoff games this season, including every time against Denver. His slashing is allowing him to kick it out to shooters, and that won’t change in Game 5. It wouldn’t be shocking if he accomplishes 4 assists in the first half alone.
Bam Adebayo First Basket Layup (+3000) & Other (+1100)
Adebayo is 3-1 versus Jokic in the tip-off this series, although it’s a coin flip for who is actually favored. In Game 2, Adebayo had the First FGA on a hook shot. In Game 3, Adebayo had the First FGA on a layup. In Game 4, Adebayo had Miami’s Second FGA on a layup. He led the Heat during the regular season in Team First FGA %, and he’s dominated first basket usage for Miami this series. It’s highly likely that it’s either a layup or other for Adebayo, so playing both instead of his +550 First Basket line is far more logical.
For the layup to hold a positive expected value, he must hit at least 3.3% of the time. For the other to hold a positive expected value, he must hit at least 8.4% of the time. Those are both feasible to me, which makes the props valuable.
Bam Adebayo 20+ Points (-125)
Bam has hit this every game; he’s averaging 22.3 PPG and 19.8 FGA. His volume has skyrocketed because the Nuggets are stationing Jokic in the paint and constantly allowing Adebayo to take open midrange shots. They are also doubling Butler on the pick and roll and allowing Butler to pass to Adebayo for an open jumper. Based on his volume and shot quality, Adebayo has a great chance to score 20 points in Game 5. The only concern would be Butler hoarding shots in an elimination game, but I expect Denver’s defensive strategy to encourage Butler to pass.
For Bam to hold a positive expected value, he must achieve this at least 55.6% of the time.