Get expert NBA Player Prop Picks for the 4/16/23 NBA playoff games featuring the Timberwolves-Nuggets, Clippers-Suns, and Lakers-Grizzlies. Find updated NBA player prop odds for every prop and player.
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NBA Player Prop Picks (4/16/23)
The second batch of eight teams compete in Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs today, Sunday, April 16, 2023. For all of our NBA player prop picks and best bets for these games, check out the analysis and list below.
Luke Kennard o2.5 Threes (+100)
Even odds for one of the best three-point shooters in the NBA to hit three 3s? I will take it. While Kennard does not start for Memphis, he will garner significant playoff minutes this season, as his role is imperative: come in and shoot.
Since joining the Grizzlies a few months ago, Kennard has averaged 11.3 points in 24.6 minutes on a shooting split of 53/54/95. Needless to say, he has put on an absolute clinic in his short time in Memphis.
Further, Kennard has been getting a bigger role recently due to his hot shooting; his 3PAs have increased in his last 12 games, averaging roughly 7.5 three-point attempts per game. During that stretch, he has hit this line in nine of those 12 games.
The counter argument to this could be that the Lakers defend the three-point line very well (fourth in opponent 3P%) and this is a playoff game, so there will be more intensity on defense. However, the pressure that Ja Morant, and his driving ability, will put on the Lakers’ defense will force it to collapse, leaving Kennard with plenty of clean looks.
Devin Booker o27.5 Points (-125)
Since Paul George’s injury, Eric Gordon has fairly consistently been starting at shooting guard for the Los Angeles Clippers, giving them shooting, experience, and leadership. The only issue with Gordon is that he is a below-average defender with below-average heighth for his position. Gordon’s defense (121.8 defensive rating this season) should be exploitable for Devin Booker.
Despite Booker’s undeniable talent, Kevin Durant carries a certain gravity on the court that defenses have to pay attention to at all times. Durant’s gravity will clear the way for Booker to get some clean looks that he does not usually get without him on the floor.
Additionally, the Los Angeles Clippers have the fourth-worst defensive rating of any playoff team since the All-Star break. While they will likely tighten things up a bit, this is not a Clippers team that plays defense like the ones in previous years.
Lastly, Booker has hit this line in four of his eight games with Durant on the floor; however, in two of the games he came up just one point short. He should play close to 40 minutes for Phoenix in most playoff games, which should give him a bump in output, too.
Nikola Jokic Triple-Double (+140)
Any time Jokic has fairly significant plus value on a triple-double prop, serious consideration is warranted. In this case, we are pulling the trigger on “Joker” to score at least ten points, pull down at least ten rebounds, and dish out at least ten assists. Here’s why:
First, the increase in minutes for Jokic during a playoff game should be substantial. Jokic has averaged just over 33 minutes per game this season, but it is difficult to see him playing anything less than 38 minutes per game in the postseason, considering the Nuggets’ bench is so horrific.
Secondly, Jokic has logged a triple-double in two of his three games against the Timberwolves this season, despite never playing more than 33 minutes.
Lastly, in the nine games where Jokic has played at least 38 minutes, he has recorded a triple-double in seven of them, with most being outrageous totals in all three categories. Plus value is simply too good here.