NBA Player Prop Picks & Odds (4/21/23): Celtics vs Hawks, Cavaliers vs Knicks, & Nuggets vs Timberwolves
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NBA Player Prop Picks (4/21/23)
After falling just shy of hitting a Kevon Looney Double-Double player prop at +240, we will look to bounce back for Friday’s impressive slate of first-round matchups, featuring Boston versus Atlanta, Cleveland versus New York, and Denver versus Minnesota. Check out our best bets and favorite picks below, all of which will be available to you on DraftKings sportsbook.
Donovan Mitchell o40.5 PRA (-115)
Let’s buy low on Donovan Mitchell after an absent offensive performance relative to his usual output. Mitchell has generally been a beast against the Knicks, clearing this line in five of his past eight games against them and in five of his past six games overall, per his Lineups player profile.
Since Darius Garland stepped up in a massive way in Game 2, the defensive attention to Mitchell should fall back ever so slightly; the Knicks want a high-volume game from Mitchell, not one where he’s distributing at an incredibly high level (13 assists to just two turnovers.) Even though Garland stepped up in Game 2, expect this entire series to be the “Donovan Mitchell show.”
Derrick White o24.5 PRA (-130)
Sure, this line is juiced like crazy, but what else are the sportsbooks supposed to do when a player that averages 12.4 points per game has more than doubled his season-scoring average in both playoff games against the Hawks? Derrick White is the third-leading scorer in this series, only trailing Dejounte Murray for Atlanta and his All-Star teammate, Jayson Tatum; he has put up 24 and 26 points in his past two games, respectively. Now, we just need his points, rebounds, and assists to combine for 25. It is very doable.
Since the 6-foot-4 combo guard has been playing for Boston, he has faced Atlanta seven times; however, he only played five minutes in one of the games. So, if you disclude that game, White has hit this prop five consecutive times. Further, White has hit this line in four of his past five games, excluding that five-minute game against the Hawks that happened to be the last game of the regular season.
This is simply an ideal matchup for White, as the Hawks allow the ninth-most points and fourth-most assists to opposing shooting guards. White’s size and change of speed are a few of his biggest assets offensively, and there have been numerous times where he has been pressured by a solid defender like Dejounte Murray and blown by him for an easy layup. If Trae Young is ever on him, he’d be “barbecue chicken,” as Shaquille O’Neal likes to say.
Jamal Murray o34.5 PRA (-110)
We have seen “Bubble Murray” in full form through the first two games of the Nuggets’ first-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Murray has obliterated his PRA props in both games against Minnesota, and even though those games were at home, while this one is on the road, this shouldn’t scare you off him.
The last time that Murray was in the postseason (2019-20), he averaged 26.5 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game in 19 games; he played close to 40 minutes in every bout.
In short, Murray looks like he is completely back from his injury and at the perfect time. Jokic continues to draw a ton of attention from the Timberwolves’ defense, and rightfully so, but this leaves Murray with a below-average defender in Mike Conley, who he has been crushing due to his size and skill.
Lastly, the Timberwolves allow the fourth-most points and third-most rebounds per game to opposing point guards. This is still a deficient line, and we should ride it until the sportsbooks adjust.