NBA Player Prop Picks & Odds (4/25/23): Hawks vs Celtics, Timberwolves vs Nuggets, & Clippers vs Suns
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NBA Player Prop Picks (4/25/23)
For tonight’s slate, we have three huge matchups, all of which are elimination games. The Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics, and Phoenix Suns lead their series 3-1 over Minnesota, Atlanta, and Los Angeles (Clippers), respectively. Check out our favorite player props and best bets for these matchups below.
Jamal Murray o32.5 PRA (-125)
The first two playoff games for the Denver Nuggets gave us a glimpse into “Bubble Murray”; he dominated all facets of the game, especially on the offensive end of the floor. While he struggled shooting in Games 3 and 4, he was able to hit this line in one of them. Still, the commonality in his last two games (41/23/80 shooting split) has been simple: he has been on the road.
Now, Murray returns to Ball Arena, where he has hit this in both playoff games with flying colors (40 and 48 combined PRA in Games 1 and 2.) Like many players, Murray has shown comfort at home in front of Denver’s fans. This line may not have hit in the last game, but it did hit in the three prior and four of the past five (not including the nine minutes he played against Houston.)
Further, this matchup is advantageous for a number of reasons; Minnesota allows the fourth-most points and third-most rebounds to opposing points guards. This has been a point that we have touched on in previous prop posts, but Mike Conley Jr’s size (6-foot-1) and defense (117.8 defensive rating) give Murray a substantial advantage.
Russell Westbrook Triple-Double (+470)
This could be the game where Russell Westbrook puts everything together from the past two battles against Phoenix. Any chance of the Clippers avoiding elimination tonight will be because Westbrook went absolutely nuclear; it is a road game, and they are missing their best two players.
Westbrook came very close to a triple-double in Game 3 but fell just two rebounds short. In Game 5, the likelihood of him having another game with incredible efficiency is slim; after all, his 44/31/66 shooting split is not stellar. Therefore, we can expect Westbrook to facilitate more after he misses a few shots.
Say what you want about Westbrook, but he always plays hard and has a lot of heart. And he probably hates losing more than he loves winning, honestly. He won’t want to go home and will leave everything on the floor. This is obviously a huge swing, so don’t throw a whole unit down on it, but this could be the vintage triple-double game we used to see from him.
Ivica Zubac NO Double-Double (-250)
Significant injuries to multiple key players usually seem to affect big men the most; if the offense is not geared towards feeding your center, then that can become even more exponentiated as guards and forwards get more touches but may not be as talented of playmakers for others.
This seems to be what has happened with Ivica Zubac in the past two games, in particular. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George’s gravity can help a player like Zubac get some good looks in the pick-and-roll, ducking in the paint, or just being available for lobs/drop-offs. Unfortunately, without their gravity, Zubac has failed to put up even modest offensive numbers, posting just four and six points in his past two games.
Zubac’s margin for error in getting to double-digit scoring, with the volume he has gotten in the past two games, is extremely small; he has only amassed nine total FGA in 46 combined minutes on the floor. Even if he gets to double-digits scoring-wise, he has failed to grab double-digit rebounds in four of his past five games (and three consecutive.)