NBA Player Prop Picks & Odds (4/26/23): Knicks vs Cavaliers, Lakers vs Grizzlies, Heat vs Bucks, & Warriors vs Kings
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NBA Player Prop Picks (4/26/23)
The NBA’s April 26th playoff slate is absolutely loaded, featuring four exciting games, three of which are potential elimination games. The Grizzlies, Cavaliers, and Bucks will all be trying to hold on to hope in their respective Game 5s, while Los Angeles, New York, and Miami will want to close things out before their series get any closer. Take a look at our favorite bets and player props from these enticing matchups below.
Anthony Davis u4.5 1Q Rebounds (-160)
This is a pretty massive 1Q rebounding line, especially considering that he has pulled down 12 or fewer rebounds in three of his four games against the Memphis Grizzlies in the playoffs. Davis is a phenomenal rebounder, but he has gotten much attention from Memphis, particularly on the glass. Xavier Tillman and Jaren Jackson Jr have done a reasonably solid job keeping him from getting too many offensive rebounds.
Another key factor here is that Davis has had a ton of opportunities (due to the Grizzlies’ abysmal team shooting split) to grab 15-20 rebounds in a game but has only done so in one game this series. In a must-win game at home, Memphis should shoot the ball much better than it has thus far in the series; it is due to garner some offensive momentum. That could limit Davis’ opportunities for defensive rebounds, which are objectively the easiest to secure.
Lastly, Davis has only averaged 3.5 rebounds per game in the first quarter during the 2022-23 regular season, making this line a bit inflated. The Grizzlies’ game plan should continue to be focused on limiting AD and LeBron’s output.
LeBron James u2.5 Threes (-140)
LeBron has shouldered so much of the Lakers’ offensive output for several years but has been helped significantly in the 2023 playoffs thus far. Despite averaging 29 points on a 50/32/77 shooting split this season, LeBron has been held to relatively modest scoring outputs through the first four games. As alluded to above, a great portion of that can be attributed to the shocking ascension of Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, and other role players. However, LeBron is also just not shooting the ball well, particularly from three.
James is 2-19 from behind the arc in the last three playoff games against the Memphis Grizzlies, and it does not take a genius eye to tell he is missing a lot of his attempts left and right, which is a huge negative for shooters; great shooters should only miss short and long. LeBron’s 32.1% on three-pointers this season is his lowest since the 2015-16 season, but this postseason is even trending to be far worse.
Additionally, LeBron has had success when driving into the paint this series, whether it be to shoot or create for others, so don’t anticipate him shooting anywhere near double-digit attempts from deep.
Lastly, Memphis has a terrific perimeter defense, and while it has struggled to put points on the board, it still boasts a 107.0 team defensive rating in the past three games. Further, the Grizzlies have allowed just 26.7% three-point shooting to the Lakers in Games 2, 3, and 4 combined. It is surprising that this line is not more like -160 to -180, frankly, especially considering this is a must-win game for Memphis, and its defensive intensity will be ramped up even higher.
Andrew Wiggins o5.5 Rebounds (-140)
After roughly two months without basketball, Andrew Wiggins was finally able to return for Game 1 against the Sacramento Kings. Since then, Wiggins has clearly gotten his legs back; he looks to be in game shape again. There is one specific area in Wiggins’ game where you can tell his level of conditioning: rebounding.
In his past two games, Wiggins has posted seven and eight rebounds, clearing this line with relative ease. It is also promising to see him logging 35-40 minutes, and we should continue to see substantial minutes for Wiggins in the next two or three games, as Golden State needs to steal a win at Sacramento if it wants to move on to the next round.
Lastly, in 22 playoff games last year, Wiggins pulled down an impressive 7.5 rebounds per game; he knows the importance of these games and elevates his play to match that. We should see that again in this pivotal Game 5 against the Kings.