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NBA Player Prop Picks (4/27/23)
After a four-game slate on Wednesday, Boston vs Atlanta Game 6 is the sole game on this Thursday evening. In a series that appeared all but over after game 4, the Hawks have found some momentum after stealing Game 5 on the road without Dejounte Murray.
It will be another potential elimination game for Atlanta, but, if they win, they will find themselves in a Game 7 with one of the current odds on favorite to win the NBA title. Take a look at our two best player props from this potentially series-deciding game.
Dejounte Murray o21.5 Points (-115)
Once again, it is shocking to see Murray’s point total at 21.5. Murray has been over this number in his past four games against the Celtics, as he has averaged 25.3 points per game on roughly 46/40/100 shooting split; his offensive efficiency has been a large part of why Atlanta is still in this series.
Further, Murray’s volume has been consistent in this series, as his field goal attempts have hovered between 20 and 25. Additionally, Murray has played between 36 and 40 minutes in each game of this series, but in an elimination game, expect him to eclipse 40 minutes, giving him plenty of opportunities to put points on the board.
It also is important to note that the C’s defense has dropped off quite a bit since the first two games, as they have allowed Atlanta to shoot a 49/43/88 team shooting split, scoring an average of 123.3 points in the process.Look for Murray to play inspired basketball after receiving a one-game suspension for Game 5.
Bogdan Bogdanovic o2.5 Threes (+140)
If it weren’t for Bogdanovic’s hot shooting from the floor in Game 5, the Atlanta Hawks would likely be home right now. Even though Trae Young posted 38 points and hit the game-winning shot to send the Hawks back to their home floor, he was still inefficient again, shooting just 14-33 from the floor and 5-13 from deep.
As a matter of fact, if it weren’t for Bogdanovic and his 18 points on just nine shot attempts, Young would have never been in the position to hit the game-winner. This is no slight to Young but rather a boost to Bogdanovic, an unsung hero in this series.
Through the first five games of this first-round battle with Boston, Bogdanovic has posted over 13 points per game on a 54/48/100 shooting split; he is nearly hitting three three-pointers per game on roughly six attempts.
Additionally, the Celtics have not played nearly as well defensively as most people expected before the start of the series, posting a 114.0 defensive rating through the first five games. Their defense has allowed players like Bogdanovic to get free off of screens and hand-offs, which explains his solid shooting efficiency.
The only concern here is volume, as Bogdan has failed to shoot more than seven three-pointers in any of the five games against the Boston Celtics. Ideally, that number will climb at home in a must-win game.