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NBA Player Prop Picks (4/28/23)
The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings face potential elimination when they hit the road for their Game 6s against Los Angeles and Golden State, respectively. For this two-game, Friday night slate, check out our favorite player props and the analysis that accompanies them below!
LeBron James u2.5 Threes (-140)
It is hard to back overs on LeBron James’ player props right now, particularly on offensive output; he has been wildly inconsistent from the field relative to how he usually shoots. As a matter of fact, James has averaged just 22.2 points per game on a 46/17/68 shooting split; his three-point shooting has been nothing short of horrendous.
After hitting three three-pointers in Game 1, LeBron has shot just 10.7% from deep since, evidencing an all-time shooting slump from one of the greatest players ever. The bottom line is that LeBron just looks tired, and Game 5 put that on display, as he finished with just 15 points on 5-17 shooting from the field and 1-9 from three. James has only hit this line once (Game 1) in the five-game series thus far.
Andrew Wiggins o2.5 Steals + Blocks (+120)
Andrew Wiggins has made all the difference for this Golden State team in its first-round series against the Kings; he has been highly efficient overall and has played phenomenal defense, which has been an issue for the Dubs all season, especially on the road.
Wiggins has averaged 19.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.2 steals per game on 51% shooting from the field in this series. Further, after struggling to shoot from deep in Games 1 and 2 of this first-round matchup, he has shot 46.2% from three in his last three. Despite not playing for two months, Wiggins took virtually no time to return to his previous form.
As far as the defensive end of the floor goes, Wiggins has recorded six blocks and four steals in his last two games, slaughtering this line in the process. Additionally, he has hit this line in three of his past five games, which is impressive, as in the first two games, it was clear he was getting his “game legs” back under him.
Additionally, the Kings rank fourth in the playoffs in drives per game, giving Wiggins plenty of opportunities to strip opponents or block shots on the ball. His athleticism also allows him to come over from the weak side and block shots that teammates contest.
Lastly, this is a “golden” opportunity for the Dubs to move on to the Western Conference Semi-Finals; they are at home, where they were 33-8 in the regular season and now 2-0 in the postseason. Expect Golden State to lay it all on the line and play its best defense all season. And that includes Andrew Wiggins.
Anthony Davis o3.5 Blocks (+135)
Are we crazy for taking Anthony Davis to record four or more blocks in one game? Perhaps. However, Davis has been nothing short of spectacular on the defensive end of the floor in this series against the Memphis Grizzlies. When Davis plays, Memphis has virtually no interior game and struggles mightily to score in the paint. But that does not mean that the Grizzlies stop trying.
Davis has amassed 21 blocks in just five games, averaging over four per game against a great finishing team in Memphis. Further, he has hit this line in three of the five games, giving us a substantial margin between his hit rate and the implied probability, especially given the solid sample size.
The last key point to consider is that Anthony Davis could play 44 or more minutes in this game, which he has yet to do in this series. Davis stated that he would play all 48 minutes if that is what was necessary to get a home win against the Grizzlies to move on to the next round and avoid a Game 7 in Memphis.
This line looks scarier than it is at first glance. The reality is that Davis has been playing Hall-of-Fame-caliber defense, which has completely disrupted the spacing and efficiency of the Grizzlies. He could get four or five blocks in this matchup.