NBA Player Prop Picks & Odds (5/11/23): Celtics vs 76ers & Nuggets vs Suns

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NBA Player Prop Picks (5/11/23)

The theme for Thursday night’s dual game slate is survival as the Boston Celtics battle it out against the Philadelphia 76ers and the Denver Nuggets look to close out the series on the road against the Phoenix Suns. Both the Suns and the Celtics opened as series favorites, as well as championship favorites, and now both find themselves in game six down 2-3. In desperation mode, it’s time for each team’s star players to show out in an effort to keep their championship hopes alive.

Check out our favorite player props for both Celtics vs 76ers and Nuggets vs Suns below, including our in-depth analysis and reasoning for our picks.

Jaylen Brown o2.5 Threes (-120)

With Jayson Tatum’s production in the midst of a wild roller coaster ride, Jaylen Brown has quietly put together respectable games in an effort to keep the Celtics championship hopes alive. While averaging more than 23 points is good, Brown needs to ramp it up as Tatum deals with the Sixers pressure.

Especially as the help side guard, getting the benefit of exploiting the gaps in a shifted Sixers zone defense when Tatum has the ball on the opposite side of the court. With Tatum’s three getting smothered early in the set, he has resorted to driving to the rim. This forces the Sixers to collapse, leaving the opposite side open for a high quality three.

This is where an uptick in attempts for Brown comes in, replacing Al Horford’s attempts as he has failed to find any sort of consistency in the corner. Giving the Celtics a better scoring option on the opposite side helps keep within scoring pace of the Sixers, as well as giving them a driving threat against a reeling defense with Brown being able to put the ball on the deck.

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Michael Porter Jr o2.5 Threes (-115)

The real Michael Porter Jr has finally shown up. After disappearing throughout a majority of this series, Porter Jr has finally made his mark as one of the Nuggets go-to perimeter threats by shooting 5-8 from three.

His floor stretching abilities as a lethal shooter can’t be overstated as it opens up the interior for Jokic to do damage in. When he was ice cold, the Nuggets offense was prone to stalling out as the Suns could sag off and clog the interior.

Even when he was ice cold from three, Porter Jr was still throwing up a heavy volume that gives me confidence in him clearing this number should he regress from his game five performance. 

The Suns perimeter defense has been exploitable with Jokic generating high quality looks at the rim, giving Porter Jr ample opportunities to knock down the high quality look from deep. The Suns have struggled to shift back out to cover the perimeter, giving up a three point completion percentage of 38% in their last three games against the Nuggets per TeamRankings.
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Devin Booker o31.5 Points (-125)

Turns out Devin Booker is mortal as he finished game five with a modest 28 points on 8-19 shooting. It almost sounds disrespectful to say that he needs to step up as he has carried the Suns to two wins thus far, but that is exactly the case for game six should they want to keep their playoff hopes alive.

The volume is there to clear this number with ease, as well as the quality of look with Kevin Durant commanding a brunt of the defensive attention as one of the league’s most lethal scoring threats.

Booker’s game is hard to defend as he has mastered all three levels of the court. Booker can spot up at the perimeter for a cross court Durant pass, take his man off the dribble and pull up for a high quality mid-range, or attack the rim with an elite finishing ability.

Simply put, we should see games 1-4 Devin Booker as he shoulders a higher usage rate. Especially with Ayton looking mentally checked out, putting more of a burden on Booker and Durant to propel the Suns to a game seven.

Kody is a sports betting writer here at Lineups. He specializes in college sports as well as the NFL and NBA. He won’t quit believing in the Lions Super Bowl chances even when they are eliminated.

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