NBA Player Prop Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Heat vs Celtics Game 7

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Check out our favorite player props from this win-or-go-home bout in a Game 7 rematch from last year’s ECF below!

After securing a 3-0 series lead, nearly everyone believed that the Miami Heat had the Eastern Conference Finals wrapped up and would have an opportunity to play in the NBA Finals. However, Boston had other ideas, as it was able to rack up three consecutive wins of its own to even the series at 3-3.

Now, in an unlikely turn of events, the Celtics and Heat will face off for a Game 7 in Boston, with the winner set to challenge Denver for an NBA Championship.

Caleb Martin o2.5 Threes (+140)

At this point, if Caleb Martin is not considered the primary scoring option for the Miami Heat, then he is at least option “1B.” Martin has posted double-digit outings in every single game during this series, averaging 18 points per game on a 58/46/88 shooting split. Further, Martin has hit this line in four of Miami’s six games this series.

Boston’s perimeter defense against Martin has not been that great; he is getting open looks, and the contests, when he is defended, are subpar. As a matter of fact, the C’s perimeter defense, in general, has been subpar; they have allowed Miami to shoot 42.4% from behind the arc in six games, which is a borderline unacceptable number.

Our biggest challenge with Martin will likely not be minutes (34 minutes per game this series) or three-point attempts (just shy of seven 3PAs in the ECF) in this game. Instead, it will be foot-on-the-line two-pointers (essentially, shots that would be three-pointers if his foot was not toeing the line) that could be our undoing. No player in the NBA shoots as many foot-on-the-line 2s as Martin, but as long as he avoids that, he should have enough looks to take us home.
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Marcus Smart o2.5 Threes (+105)

As we always discuss, volume is the name of the game when it comes to three-point props for players. In the case of Marcus Smart, he has been shooting quite a bit from deep in his past three games, averaging just shy of nine 3PAs during that stretch.

Smart has also hit three or more 3s in Games 4, 5, and 6, too. Further, the Celtics are 3-0 during that span, so Smart’s efficient offensive output clearly has played a pivotal role in their success, and they won’t want to move away from that.

Head coach Erik Spoelstra and the Miami Heat can live with Marcus Smart beating them, but they can’t live with giving up a monster game to Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown. Actually, Smart posted 24 points and hit three 3s the last time these two teams faced each other in Game 7 (2022 ECF.) Expect something similar here.
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Derrick White o1.5 Blocks (+190)

Can the hero of Game 6 leave his prints on Game 7, particularly on the defensive end of the floor? Yes, he certainly can. White’s heroic putback to put the C’s on top with just one-tenth of a second left on the game clock might have overshadowed what he has done on defense, but we will not miss that.

In four of the past five games in this series, White has recorded at least two blocks, even registering three in Game 6. White is amongst the best shot-blocking guards in the NBA, and there will be an increased emphasis from both teams on that end.

With Malcolm Brogdon’s status in question due to an elbow injury and having played nearly 40 minutes on average in his past two games, White is in a prime spot to record two blocks in Game 7 against these smaller Miami guards like Gabe Vincent and Kyle Lowry.

Drew is one of the NBA Lead Writers at, specializing in betting content such as game predictions and player props. With a deep knowledge of players and prospects, Drew has an extensive edge in covering everything NBA.

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