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NBA Player Prop Picks (5/6/23)
With both series tied up at 1-1, New York versus Miami and Golden State versus Los Angeles will be two pivotal Game 3s that could change the direction of each team’s playoff hopes. The Lakers and Heat were able to steal their respective Game 1s on the road and now have taken over home-court advantage; they will not want to give that back up by losing in front of their fans. Take a look below at the in-depth analysis of our favorite player props in these two bouts!
Gabe Vincent o13.5 Points (-115)
Let’s run it back on Gabe Vincent. After posting three-straight 20-point outings, two of which have come against the New York Knicks, it is clear that Vincent’s role as a scorer in this Heat offense has increased recently. With Jimmy Butler having such a high gravity on the offensive end in this postseason, it will be up to players like Vincent to knock down shots as secondary scorers; he has stepped up to the challenge thus far.
Vincent has hit this prop in five of his seven playoff games, but our most considerable edge on this prop is his volume, which has been substantial recently. As a matter of fact, Vincent has shot 12 three-pointers in each of his last three games and has averaged shy of 19 field goal attempts overall during that span, too.
Miami’s offense has shocked both fans and opposing players this postseason, catapulting from the bottom of most key offensive statistical categories to the upper echelon, despite losing Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo to substantial injuries. A massive part of the Heat’s postseason success has been Jimmy Butler playing incredible basketball and Gabe Vincent carrying a more significant responsibility on the offensive end. This trend should continue throughout the rest of the postseason.
Anthony Davis u41.5 PRA (-115)
It is difficult to bet on a player like Anthony Davis, who can sometimes look like he’s the reincarnation of Wilt Chamberlain, but other times appear to be absent from the game and void of the alpha player he has shown at times. Davis put together a memorable 30/23/5/5 line in a stunning Game 1 road upset against the Golden State Warriors. Still, he had an absolute stinker in Game 2, scoring just 11 points on 5-11 shooting and pulling down merely seven rebounds in 33 minutes of play.
As predicted, the Golden State Warriors made a substantial change defensively; Draymond Green went from defending Anthony Davis on 34% of plays in Game 1 to 62% in Game 2, proving that he is a better matchup on AD than Looney. Looney still defended Davis, but much less than in Game 1. Expect Golden State to keep this matchup with the former DPOY complicating every offensive possession for AD and the Lakers. Still, betting Davis unders is a risky proposition; we are just trusting this matchup and the defensive adjustments that Golden State made to keep him at bay.
Draymond Green went from defending Anthony Davis for 34% of plays in Game 1 to 62% of plays in Game 2.
Warriors Defensive Matchups Vs AD
Kevon Looney: 45
Draymond Green: 27
All others: 8
Draymond Green: 39
Kevon Looney: 15
All others: 9
— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) May 5, 2023
Dennis Schroder u8.5 Points (-115)
Are you ready to play with fire? Dennis Schroder has been one of the Lakers’ most inconsistent players this postseason, but that is far from a guarantee that this trend will continue. Still, he has only eclipsed this line in two of his eight playoff games thus far. Further, in all but one of these playoff games, Schroder has shot six or fewer times, often finishing with between three to five field goal attempts.
Ultimately, Schroder has taken somewhat of a backseat to other guards in scoring; Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell have provided almost all of the Lakers’ backcourt scoring except for Game 1 against the Warriors. Despite posting 19 points in that game, Schroder failed to hit even one field goal in the next game.