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NBA Player Prop Picks (5/8/23)
It’s a dual slate for our Monday night viewing pleasure as the New York Knicks battle it out against the Miami Heat and the Golden State Warriors look to find success on the road against the Los Angeles Lakers. Both the Warriors and the Knicks are in desperation mode to tie the series up at two games apiece before they both go back to their home courts for game five in what could be a major momentum shift for their conference championship hopes.
Check out our favorite player props from this dual game slate below, including our in-depth analysis and reasoning for our picks!
Jimmy Butler u1.5 Threes (-195)
I hope you’re thirsty because we kick off Monday’s slate by drinking the juice with Jimmy Butler’s under on three pointers.
Like his point total, this line is an overreaction to his previous success against the Milwaukee Bucks. Clearing this number in every contest against the Bucks, Butler’s shooting usage rate has taken a dip since the Knicks series as he has regressed back towards the mean.
Butler averaged 1.6 three-point attempts per game this season, on par with his 1.5 in his two games against the Knicks this series. He has also failed to knock one down as the Knicks are a respectable perimeter defending unit, ranking ninth in Opposing Three Point Completion percentage by holding opponents to a lowly 35.4%. That number has since dropped to 30.8% in their series against the Heat per TeamRankings.
Julius Randle u23.5 Points (-115)
No starter in their respective playoff series is shooting worse than Julius Randle. Randle is currently averaging 34.6% from the field, 22.9% from three. Putrid shooting numbers when you look at his usage rate as one of the Knicks go-to scoring options.
This bet is directly correlated to the Heat’s defensive adjustments that we saw in game three as Bam Adebayo switched on to Randle to limit the interior scoring after Randle torched them in game two.
Expecting more of the same in game four, I will take the under as Bam is one of the best on-ball defenders in the league with elite size and athleticism to keep a hand in Randle’s face at all times throughout the game.
One cause for concern is the potential for Brunson to go off with his slashing abilities, forcing Bam to suck back into the paint in an attempt to negate his looks at the rim. The Heat have countered this by throwing doubles early at Brunson, forcing the ball out of his hands and allowing Bam to stay put on Randle.
Draymond Green o6.5 Assists (-135)
I’m going back to the well on Green’s assists prop as we comfortably cleared this number the last time I believed that the Warriors would get the win. That was in game two when Draymond finished with nine assists as the Warriors cruised to a 127-100 victory.
Expecting more of the same in this one, Draymond plays a pivotal role in facilitating as the Lakers are doing whatever they can to get the ball out of Curry’s hands in the halfcourt. Throwing doubles at the perimeter, Draymond has eased the burden by meeting Curry up top as one of the first passing options to avoid the double.
In doing so, that gives Green the ability to rack up assists as Kerr draws up motion sets after the initial pass to get either Klay Thompson or Jordan Poole open at the wing. The Lakers are exposed to high quality looks on the weak side due to their double on Curry, giving the Warriors ample opportunities to create separation for a Green assist.