With the last season wrapped up, it is time to turn our attention to the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds, where Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson are the heavy favorites to take home the Rookie of the Year award. Check out the latest NBA Rookie of the Year odds below, as well as our favorites throughout the season!
NBA Rookie Of The Year Odds 2023-24
The NBA Rookie of the Year odds are available in every sportsbook that offers NBA futures, so take a look below at the board to see each player’s odds. Some players have solid preseason value, while others are a bit riskier, given the uncertainty of their spot in the respective team’s rotation. Check out all of the NBA Rookie of the Year odds analysis throughout this article, too.
NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: ROY Ladder
When the 2023-24 NBA regular season starts in October, we will update our Rookie of the Year ladder at least once per week based on players’ performances and impact on their respective teams and any applicable injuries that could derail their campaign. We will list out our top five favorite rookies to win ROY; however, sometimes, the NBA Rookie of the Year odds won’t align exactly with our rankings. If we believe that a particular player has more a more substantial chance to win than his odds indicate, he could find himself ranked above other rookies.
NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Preseason/Early Season Favorites
Below, we detail our favorite NBA Rookie of the Year candidates, featuring Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren, Scoot Henderson, Brandon Miller, and more. Check out our analysis for each of the aforementioned players and why their respective NBA Rookie of the Year odds have relative value!
The San Antonio Spurs have certainly paid their dues, whatever those may be, to the NBA lottery gods; they previously landed two generational big men in Tim Duncan and David Robinson. Now, they have Victor Wembanyama on their roster. Their rebuilding timeline could not have lined up more perfectly.
Wembanyama is set to take the league by storm as an interior force defensively with three-level scoring upside on offense. At 7-foot-5 with an eight-foot wingspan, Wembanyama becomes one of the tallest players currently in the NBA with absolutely outrageous length. Further, no player in the history of the game has been as mobile and agile at 7-foot-5; he adds impressive ball-handling and shooting upside to an already impossible physical package, too.
Concerns about the physicality of the NBA and Wemby’s frame are valid, to some degree; however, he has already proven that he can stay healthy through an entire season at a professional level. Further, he has experience playing against pros in a league that is extremely physical. He won’t be constantly overpowered, as his lower body and core strength are adequate for a player of his size, especially considering he is still a teenager.
The other variable that we want to pay close attention to for individual awards like NBA Rookie of the Year is opportunity. Wemby will be heavily featured from Day 1, likely logging 30+ minutes per game and at least 13-15 field goal attempts per game. Anything less would be beyond head-scratching from a development standpoint.
The Spurs are in a spot where they need to prioritize Wemby’s development, as well as the progression and development of other young players like Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, Keldon Johnson, and Malaki Branham.
Ultimately, it is difficult to envision any other rookies having the volume and opportunity that Wemby will have. Chet Holmgren and Scoot Henderson are the only other two rookies that will be in the same stratosphere in those departments; however, Holmgren will still have to yield volume to MVP dark horse Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Most Improved Player candidate Jalen Williams, and Josh Giddy. Scoot will be heavily featured for Portland, but will not be anywhere near the force that Wemby is on the defensive end, which will put him at an immediate disadvantage.
Wemby’s NBA Rookie of the Year odds would be astronomically higher if his health could be guaranteed for an entire season, but the game just doesn’t work that way. Still, his odds have phenomenal value right now at -115.
We have seen this story before: a highly-touted rookie misses their first season due to a season-ending injury and then comes back the next season, technically still as a “rookie,” and wins the NBA Rookie of the Year award. Holmgren’s NBA Rookie of the Year odds reflects this as a legitimate possibility, as his odds are hovering just behind Scoot Henderson.
Holmgren was a dominant force for the Gonzaga Bulldogs two seasons ago, but concerns about strength and longevity could be viewed by some as legitimate after a freak foot injury in a Pro-Am game last summer.
However, we do not believe that this will be a trend for Holmgren; he has had nothing but time to strengthen his body and work on his game, especially since he has been healthy for a number of months now.
From Day 1, Holmgren will start for this Oklahoma City team that desperately needs talented frontcourt players who can shoot (39% at Gonzaga on over three 3PAs per game), giving him an advantage over some other “true rookies.” Further, Holmgren is a rim-protecting threat on the other end of the floor, and he could get an edge over some other candidates by his defense.
In his freshman season at Gonzaga, Holmgren averaged just shy of four blocks per game in only 27 minutes per game, which is truly a ridiculous block rate. If he posts even remotely similar numbers, he will be in the ROTY conversation the entire season. If Wembanyama were to underperform or suffer even a minor injury, the door could be open for Chet.
Scoot Henderson has a wide array of talents, skills, and physical attributes that will make him a bonafide star in this league; therefore, he should not be quickly dismissed as a more-than-legitimate NBA Rookie of the Year candidate. Henderson’s landing place in Portland makes him a volatile selection, though, as uncertainties with the roster will likely remain for the next few weeks or even months.
If Damian Lillard is traded, Scoot should be a lock to start at point guard for this Blazers team; however, volume could still be a concern. Will he field enough usage offensively to outperform players like Victor Wembanyama or Brandon Miller? It is difficult to say right now since Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe will both take their fair share of shots.
Still, there have been rumors of Simons being moved, too, which would instantly catapult Scoot’s NBA Rookie of the Year odds; he would only have to share volume with Jerami Grant and Sharpe at that point. Regardless, we will keep this section updated over the next few months to ensure we can adequately evaluate his odds based on Portland’s roster heading into the season!
It is imperative to never take Summer League too seriously when evaluating prospects; sometimes the chaotic nature, and poor chemistry and spacing can give younger players issues, at times.
However, Walker has looked nothing short of fantastic in all ways, and it is difficult to ignore. The most impressive aspect of Walker’s game right now is his defense: he posted three blocks and three steals in his first Summer League game. Further, he added eight points, 13 rebounds, and five assists, displaying his versatility and talent in every facet of the game.
Walker could have a Scottie Barnes-like impact in his rookie season, which would instantly skyrocket his NBA Rookie of the Year odds, giving them substantial value. If Walker posts a double-double with three or four assists, and over three combined “stocks” per game in his rookie season, then he has more than a good shot to win the Rookie of the Year award.
The biggest issues for Walker are playing time and offensive opportunity. Obi Toppin could take some minutes from Walker, and might even start, which would be problematic for this bet. Additionally, it’s not yet clear how involved Walker will be offensively. Still, it might be worth taking a flier, especially since head coach Rick Carlisle loves tough-nosed, high-energy players like Walker.
Amen is one of those players that you can tell is just all business; he has waited his entire life to become an NBA player, and now he gets to do that for an organization that likely won’t put any limitations on him.
However, our biggest concern with Amen in winning the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award is not his jump shot or how his game will translate from a far inferior league in Overtime Elite; the concern is that the Rockets were a glorified AAU team last season. It seemed like the Rockets had a ton of ball-stoppers offensively who would chuck shots, and there was no discipline whatsoever on that team.
Luckily, Houston brought in Ime Udoka, a bright young coach who can corral a group of young players and get them to work together. Amen’s best chance of winning Rookie of the Year lies in Udoka deciding that he should have the ball in his hands a lot offensively. If Thompson gets the keys to the offense, he will stuff the stat sheet, as he can do everything: pass, score, and rebound.
One major criteria that we preach when evaluating individual player awards, especially something as difficult to project as Rookie of the Year, is upside/opportunity. Ausar Thompson certainly has that with the Detroit Pistons. Thompson should join the starting lineup alongside Cade Cunningham, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Duren in what should be a fast-paced offensive attack, which is perfect for Thompson. He will log plenty of minutes and be featured as a connecting piece immediately for Detroit.
Besides locking down a starting spot, there are a few other possibilities that could catapult Ausar up the NBA Rookie of the Year odds ladder, including Bogdanovic being featured in a trade. The Pistons are focused on revamping their roster and leaning on youth; Bogdanovic is already 34 years old and was the leading scorer for Detroit last season. It is hard to image the Pistons passing up the opportunity to trade him to a contender for draft capital, which could feature a first-rounder, if he continues to perform (and shoot) well. Additionally, distributing his offensive usage to younger guys will help the rebuilding process.
Frankly, if Bogdanovic is moved and any other significant player were to miss time due to an injury, Thompson might be leaned on, as much as any other rookie, to produce big numbers. If Wembanyama, Scoot, and Chet underwhelm, Ausar could be in position to steal the NBA Rookie of the Year award, similar to Scottie Barnes a few years ago. Based on Ausar’s style of play, which features impressive passing, driving, and finishing abilities, and an aptitude for crashing the glass, he could stuff the stat sheet just enough to turn heads.
Sasha Vezenkov (+3000 on DraftKings)
Sasha’s NBA Rookie of the Year odds are not yet widely available across sportsbooks; however, you can find him hovering around +3000 on DraftKings. Most readers are likely asking who Sasha Vezenkov is and why in the world they would bet on him to win the NBA Rookie of the Year award over other rookies like Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, Chet Holmgren, Brandon Miller, and Amen Thompson. Let’s start with profiling this older “rookie.”
The first thing to know about Vezenkov is that he’s 27 years old and has been playing professional basketball for over a decade, with many of those years being in the EuroLeague; he is one of the best EuroLeague players of all time. While no player over the age of 24 (Malcolm Brogdon, Elgin Baylor, and David Robinson) has won the NBA Rookie of the Year award, Vezenkov could change that.
The second detail about Vezenkov is his combination of size and shooting: one of the most coveted combos in today’s NBA. Vezenkov stands at 6-foot-9 and can play small forward or power forward, giving the Sacramento Kings plenty of options in where they can deploy him. Further, he has shot 43% or better from behind the arc in three of his past six professional seasons; he is the perfect fit for this Kings team that likes to run, space the floor, and shoot threes.
Vezenkov’s biggest potential issues are simply volume and floor time. Will he get enough shots and floor time to put up numbers that can contend with the likes of Wemby or Scoot? The likely answer to that question is “No,” but if Sacramento has a few injuries at the forward position, his NBA Rookie of the Year odds would have tremendous value.
NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Stay Away From
After winning Summer League MVP, Cam Whitmore’s NBA Rookie of the Year odds skyrocketed up to +2000, which gives him the fifth-best odds out of all rookies. This is in no way an indictment on Whitmore’s game or upside, as all of our NBA experts are incredibly high on him long-term; however, there is simply no opportunity for Whitmore to win the award.
First, Whitmore will be playing behind Dillon Brooks, an All-NBA defender who is known to shoot undesirable shots on the other end of the floor. Additionally, Fred VanVleet is set to start at point guard for the Rockets and likes to shoot a ton, too. As a matter of fact, those two players combined to take roughly 30 shots per game last season, which will severely limit Whitmore’s upside to post strong enough stats to give him a case for the award.
What makes Whitmore’s NBA Rookie of the Year odds even more daunting is the presence of Jalen Green, who, like VanVleet and Brooks, has never seen a shot he didn’t like. Those three players took close to a combined 50 shots per game last season, while Houston shot fewer than 89 times per game as a team; we haven’t even discussed former top-five pick Jabari Smith Jr, Alperen Sengun, Kevin Porter Jr, or breakout candidate Tari Eason yet, either.
Houston has an issue of “too many cooks in the kitchen” offensively and often looked more like an AAU team last season than a professional team. Whitmore’s NBA Rookie of the Year odds are nowhere near favorable enough to take a flier on him, so don’t be tempted by the impressive Summer League outing.
Some may identify the 2023 Summer League struggles as a “buy low” opportunity on Brandon Miller’s NBA Rookie of the Year odds. However, it is becoming increasingly obvious that he will be a long shot to win the award.
There are three players (Scoot Henderson, Victor Wembanyama, and Chet Holmgren) who will likely make a bigger and more immediate impact on their respective teams than Miller.
Miller undoubtedly has a high ceiling in this league as a two-way player with tremendous scoring and shooting upside, but it might take him a bit longer to adjust to the speed of the NBA than the other aforementioned rookies.
Miller’s NBA Rookie of the Year odds will be dependent on these three weaknesses: fouling, finishing at the rim, and creating space off the dribble.
While Summer League results are oft overexaggerated, Miller’s dependency on hitting tough shots on the perimeter to score was a big enough issue to move us off of him. Further, fouling was another substantial problem for Miller, as he racked up 15 fouls through the first two games.
One of Miller’s major weaknesses heading into the 2023 NBA Draft was finishing around the rim. Now, NBA defenders are going to be much taller, longer, and more athletic than defenders in the SEC. In his freshman season at Alabama, Miller shot below 40% as a finisher in the half-court and opposing defenders are going to be aware of this fact. Therefore, expect Miller to be ran off the three-point line, forcing him to hit tough mid-range shots and floaters. It won’t be comfortable.
As far as fouling goes, we expect Miller to clean up the “hacking” in short order, as he is certainly a capable defender. At the end of the day, though, Miller’s lack of burst and issues finishing over and around bigger defenders in the paint could hold him back from performing at the level of Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, or Chet Holmgren.
There are a few important lessons to learn when it comes to betting on futures, but the first and foremost is always to shop odds. DraftKings has Hendricks’ NBA Rookie of the Year odds at +3500 at the time of this write-up, while other sportsbooks have him hovering at +10000. If you are so inclined to bet on Hendricks, do so at +10000 and not +3500; it sounds simple, but you would be surprised.
The other vital lesson is to understand the key factors that go into determining whether or not there is any value in an individual player’s “futures.” For the NBA Rookie of the Year award, usage and opportunity (floor time, starting spot, etc…) are the paramount factors.
Unfortunately for Hendricks, he won’t have enough usage or opportunity to stand a chance in a star-studded rookie class. For one, Hendricks will be playing behind All-Star Lauri Markkanen, DPOY candidate Walker Kessler, uber-athletic John Collins, and veteran journeyman Kelly Olynyk.
Forgive my pessimism, but even the greatest optimist is going to have trouble seeing where Hendricks fits into that equation in year one.
The other primary consideration is usage; if a few injuries were to occur, could Hendricks step into a more prominent role offensively and put up the type of numbers that could compete with Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, Brandon Miller, and a handful of other talented rookies?
Simply put, the answer is a resounding “no.” Hendricks has undeniable upside due to his shooting, athleticism, and defensive versatility, but he is in no way prepared for an on-ball role at the next level. It will take a bit of time for him to develop the necessary skills to command a higher offensive usage, as right now, he could be used to space the floor and shoot off passes and attack the occasional closeout, but that is it.
Even with very long NBA Rookie of the Year odds, we are struggling to “get there” with throwing money down on Gradey Dick to win ROTY in 2023-24. With the disarray and uncertainty in Toronto’s organization, it was worth keeping an eye on Dick’s NBA Rookie of the Year odds at the beginning of the off-season, especially considering that several trades could have happened.
However, it seems that Toronto is standing pat with its core group of guys, including O.G. Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, and Scottie Barnes. Further, Gary Trent Jr picked up his player option, allowing Toronto to keep its sixth man-type. Where does that leave Dick?
Unfortunately, it does not leave him with much floor time, as he will be stuck in a minor bench role initially. There is too much talent in this year’s draft class to think that he can outperform all of them. Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, Amen Thompson, Brandon Miller, and Chet Holmgren will all log more minutes and get more shot attempts.
With Dick’s best asset (shooting) not being utilized heavily enough on a team that still believes they can compete in the Eastern Conference, there is simply no value here.
Gradey might log a few starts this season and have a few 20-point games, but there is absolutely no way that he will be able to secure enough floor time and offensive volume to consider throwing even a modest bet on his NBA Rookie of the Year odds.
Unless catastrophe strikes Toronto’s wings, or the Raptors decide to move Siakam or Anunoby in a sudden, rash trade, don’t even bother taking a swing on this.
There are too many cooks in the kitchen in Orlando. The Magic have long been trying to find an answer to their backcourt troubles and hope to have that answer in the form of Anthony Black, a 6-foot-7 combo guard out of Arkansas, who outperformed even the biggest optimists in his freshman season.
Still, it is challenging to see Black securing enough floor time or usage to justify taking a swing on him for Rookie of the Year. Here are a few players that Black will have to compete with for minutes: Gary Harris, Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, and Markelle Fultz. There’s an outside chance that Jett Howard could see some minutes at the two, as well, which could further complicate his situation. Sure, Black will log some minutes, but “Rookie of the Year” minutes? Not likely.
Additionally, Black was fairly low on my Big Board relative to his draft position; he ranked 16th for me in the 2023 NBA Draft Class. His size, IQ, and playmaking upside are solid for his position, but Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are already swallowing the majority of the offensive workload, leaving Black very little opportunity to make an impact, at least in his rookie season.
At +10000, it would not be the worst thing to take a shot on Anthony Black to win Rookie of the Year; however, DraftKings has him at +3000, which gives him the eighth-highest odds on their sportsbook. Shop odds, especially with these longshot futures, as you’d be leaving a lot of money on the table if he were to win unexpectedly. As for us, we will pass on this one.
The Lineups.com team is quite high on Bilal Coulibaly’s upside; he has a major plus wingspan, stands at 6-foot-8 (and could still be growing), and could become an All-Defensive Team-caliber player later in his career. Further, Coulibaly’s slashing and cutting abilities mesh perfectly with his exceptional vertical athleticism. Effectively, he should become the perfect modern-day 3-and-D wing. How can we be bearish about Coulibaly’s NBA Rookie of the Year odds when we are so bullish on his potential in the NBA?
Coulibaly’s extraordinarily high upside is plenty of reason to be excited about him, but the chances that he will make an immediate impact for an NBA team is slim. There are a few players who are undoubtedly going to log more minutes at the small forward position than Coulibaly, including Corey Kispert and Deni Avdija.
Further, even when Coulibaly is on the floor, he will not be relied upon at all for self creation; his immediate impact will be his defensive versatility, catch-and-shoot ability, and cutting ability. Therefore, Bilal’s immediate upside is nowhere near high enough to take a swing on him with players like Amen Thompson, Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, Chet Holmgren, Jarace Walker, and others set to play bigger offensive roles.
Lastly, Coulibaly will be playing on one of the two or three-worst teams in the NBA, and voters are going to be more than hesistant in giving a ROTY award to a rookie on a horrendous team. Even if Coulibaly were to crack the starting lineup and post a double-digit scoring average, other rookies who are making equal impacts on better teams will have an advantage.
Cason Wallace is on the perfect team for his long-term development: Oklahoma City. The Thunder have done a fantastic job the past few years in developing talent quickly, which has expedited their rebuilding timeline. Wallace’s defensive prowess will help him fit in perfectly with OKC, as he has 1-3 switchability and scarcely gets beat at the point of attack, which are things that this team values immensely.
Wallace will eventually have to improve his shooting off the dribble and shot creation if he wants to be a true offensive threat, but he already has plenty of tools to build with in the next handful of seasons. With all of that being said, Cason Wallace is a player to avoid betting on for NBA Rookie of the Year.
Wallace will be coming off the bench unless several injuries occur, inevitably giving him much less floor time than players like Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, and Chet Holmgren. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a dark horse MVP candidate and one of the best guards in the league, while Josh Giddey will be starting at the two; he has proven to be an impressive young talent who can defend, facilitate, and score.
Giddey and SGA will command 34-36 minutes per game, which limits the amount of minutes Wallace will see the floor. Even if Giddey and SGA weren’t available due to an injury, the Thunder might very well turn to shooter Isaiah Joe to play the two or overseas veteran Vasilije Micic to run the show.
NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Key Factors
There are plenty of factors to consider when debating which rookies to bet on: usage, opportunity, and efficiency on both ends of the floor. NBA Rookie of the Year odds often mirror these factors quantitatively. The winner from a few seasons ago (2021-22 regular season), Scottie Barnes, did not lead rookies in point, rebound, assist, steal, or block averages per game. However, Barnes was consistent and efficient on offense and defense and elevated the Toronto Raptors to new heights.
Additionally, Barnes saw significant usage at the beginning of the year due to Pascal Siakam’s injury, which helped him gain confidence early in the season; he posted 18 points and nine rebounds per game during that stretch. The lesson here is that there can always be elements of unpredictability and luck.
Victor Wembanyama is the most obvious choice for Rookie of the Year for the upcoming 2023-24 regular season, as he is considered by many to be one of the most outstanding prospects in NBA history. Wembanyama will have some stiff competition to fight off, including Scoot Henderson, Amen Thompson, Brandon Miller, and others; however, he has the best situation (opportunity) and should have the most usage, too.
NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Past Winners
The Rookie of the Year award (abbreviated ROTY) has yielded quite a few unexpected winners over the past decade, including Scottie Barnes, Malcolm Brogdon, and Michael Carter-Williams. Brogdon became the lowest pick (36th) to win the ROTY award in 2017, instilling confidence in future players who fall in the draft that they, too, can win the award. His NBA Rookie of the Year odds were quite literally non-existent.
Damian Lillard was even once an underdog to win the award as the No. 6 pick; he was relatively unknown until he was drafted out of Weber State. The other six ROTYs in their respective draft classes were top-three picks.
NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Conclusion
As we have seen before, the Rookie of the Year race can range from highly lopsided for the preseason favorite, which was the case in the 2022-23 season, to a complete surprise (think Malcolm Brogdon), and anywhere in between. Based on talent, usage, and situation, Victor Wembanyama has the best NBA Rookie of the Year odds for the 2023-24 NBA regular season. The Spurs will be keen on developing Wemby and letting him play through mistakes.
Injuries and cold streaks have derailed players from individual awards in the past, but there is no indication that Wembanyama will fall to these award deterrents. Additionally, check out the Lineups YouTube channel to stay up-to-date on key games, previews, and injuries!
NBA Rookie of the Year Odds FAQ
- Which player won NBA Rookie of the Year last season?
- Who are the past ten winners of the NBA Rookie of the Year award?
- Who has the best NBA Rookie of the Year odds in 2023-24?
- Has an NBA Rookie of the Year ever made an All-Star team?
- How many second-round draft picks win the NBA Rookie of the Year award?
Which player won NBA Rookie of the Year last season?
In the 2022-23 season, Paolo Banchero secured the NBA Rookie of the Year award; he was a clear-cut favorite after Chet Holmgren went down towards the end of the off-season with a season-ending foot injury. Banchero exceeded expectations and helped add prolific scoring and rebounding to the Orlando Magic as they continue their rebuild.
Who are the past ten winners of the NBA Rookie of the Year award?
Paolo Banchero, Scottie Barnes, LaMelo Ball, Ja Morant, Luka Doncic, Ben Simmons, Malcolm Brogdon, Karl Anthony-Towns, Andrew Wiggins, and Michael Carter-Williams are the past ten winners of the NBA Rookie of the Year award. The respective NBA Rookie of the Year odds for these former winners were certainly tighter in some years than others.
Who has the best NBA Rookie of the Year odds in 2023-24?
Victor Wembanyama’s NBA Rookie of the Year odds in 2023-24 are by far the best. Wembanyama will be selected by the San Antonio Spurs and should make an instant impact on that basketball team, as they were one of the worst teams last season.
Has an NBA Rookie of the Year ever made an All-Star team?
Yes, there have been a number of players who have won NBA Rookie of the Year and also made an All-Star team. However, this is not an easy task by any stretch of the imagination. The last player who was able to do so was Blake Griffin, who won the award in his second year after sitting out his entire first season due to an injury.
How many second-round draft picks win the NBA Rookie of the Year award?
Winning the NBA ROTY award as a second-round draft pick is a daunting task. Oftentimes, there aren’t any NBA Rookie of the Year odds available for these players in the preseason. There has only been one player ever to win the award as a second-round draft pick: Malcolm Brogdon. He won the award in the 2016-17 season while playing for the Milwaukee Bucks.