FanDuel Sportsbook has released their win totals for the 2019-20 NBA season. With most free agents now signed to teams, we have a pretty good look at what the true win totals will be. There are a few potential trades that could shift win totals up and down. Chris Paul is a name that will be on the move at some point, but reports say he will be in Oklahoma City to start the season. This is more of a long shot, but teams will be calling about Bradley Beal, and I am sure most have already. The seismic movement around the league has settled down, and now we can dive into check out the best values.
|Team||2019-2020 Win Total (FanDuel Sportsbook)||Over||Under||2018-2019 Wins|
Atlanta Hawks Over 33.5 Wins (-125)
The Hawks are coming off of a 29-53 season, where they finished dead last in what was the worst division in basketball. There was only one playoff team, which was the Orlando Magic, and then you had Miami and Washington missing out on the playoffs. Atlanta went 6-10 in the division last season, which is a record I believe they can improve on for this season. Out of the east’s rebuilding teams, the Hawks are on great pace to get back to relevance. Trae Young put together a strong rookie season, and the Hawks added some great young options through the draft. Miami bulked up a bit with Jimmy Butler, but Charlotte has a real shot to finish dead last in the division after seeing Kemba Walker join Boston.
Atlanta was 9-6 in three point games, and 7-31 in ten point games. Both are areas they can improve on this year. We expected them to struggle against teams above .500, going 9-36, where they were 20-17 against teams below .500. The Hawks should be able to find there way to a better record against teams below .500, but also steal a few away from strong teams. Improving in a few areas will give the Hawks a bump in wins, and I could see them improving on the 29 wins from 2018-19. Five more wins from last year is certainly doable with this up and coming group. Adding De’Andre Hunter, Bruno Fernando, and Cam Reddish in the draft was a great haul, and they should all have first year impacts.
Minnesota Timberwolves Under 35.5 Wins (-105)
While Minnesota was linked to some bigger free agent names and even some trades, they didn’t make many moves this offseason. They still retain the same core of Jeff Teague, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Andrew Wiggins, but many of the west teams got much better. Teague played just 42 games last season. But he also had his lowest points per game total since the 2010-11 season. Derrick Rose found success off the bench for the Timberwolves. Rose is now signed with Detroit. Wiggins remains one of the league’s most inefficient scorers, and KAT is on a bit of an island for his success compared to the team’s.
Coming off surgery, Robert Covington wasn’t even a lock to be on the roster. There were trade talks as teams were eying one of the better defenders in the league. Looking at this roster, they had two guys struggle with injuries, and the bench is depleted. Minnesota also plays in one of the toughest divisions. Denver, Utah, and Portland all put up 50 or more wins last season. While Oklahoma City will take a hit, Minnesota’s 5-11 divisional record was not great. It seems every team in the west found a way to get better except Minnesota. I will take the under here with confidence.
Sacramento Kings Under 37.5 Wins (-125)
It was a great season for the Sacramento Kings, winning 39 games last year. They had won 27 games the year before. A 37.5 total is set with plus money on the under. I like the addition of Luke Walton and what the Kings have built over the last few seasons. However, it is tough seeing them building even more from last season. We can easily point to the Kings playing in one of the toughest divisions in basketball. Both Los Angeles teams beefed up and should improve from last season. While Golden State’s roster took a hit, they still sit in the pacific division. Phoenix is the only cupcake team that Sacramento can finish above. A fourth place finish within the division last year was a 37-45 record.
Sacramento struggled against the division already going 4-12, and went 21-31 against the conference. The division record should hold, and I expect a slight dip against the conference as well. The Kings had a lot of close games last season, and also took care of business against teams below .500. Sacramento ranked 26th in opponent points per game, and were 9th in points per game. With no major additions through the draft or free agency, it is hard to see them contending with a much improved western conference. It will be more about continuously improving names like De’Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley.
Milwaukee Bucks Over 57.5 Wins (+100)
Milwaukee lost in the ECF to the Toronto Raptors, after winning 60 games. They led all of the NBA in wins last season, running through just about everybody. The Bucks play in one of the weaker divisions, as they face Detroit, Chicago, and Cleveland. Detroit isn’t bad, but clearly not on the same level. Both Chicago and Cleveland are in rebuild mode. Indiana was the closest competitor, but the Victor Oladipo injury hurts them until he is 100% and at the level he was playing at. The Bucks were 32-9 against teams below .500, and they are going to face a lot of bad teams. The five southeast divisional teams are no match, and the Raptors losing Kawhi Leonard brings them down a tier.
Philadelphia is the closest match on paper, and Brooklyn is going to be one year away as they wait for Kevin Durant to return. This is the Bucks conference to lose, and repeating 58+ wins is very doable. Milwaukee should repeat 40 wins within the conference, and they went 20-10 against the west. While the west is beefed up more, this team can contend with anyone in the league. Finishing above .500 against the west should be done again. Having Malcolm Brogdon on the Pacers roster will hurt, but adding Wesley Matthews isn’t the worst move. Re-signing Brook Lopez, and adding his brother gives them a nice duo at center. Giving Khris Middleton his cash keeps this core intact for a long run.
New York Knicks Under 27.5 Wins (-110)
Expecting a 13 win improvement is a bit steep for this roster. The Knicks missed on major free agents, resulting them filling out their roster with less desirable options. They drafted R.J. Barrett, but to lead a team to 30+ wins in his rookie year is going to be a stretch. David Fizdale messed with rotations quite a bit last season, and the young depth could create a similar strategy. The Knicks play in the tougher division of the eastern conference, where they went 2-14 against the rest of the division. They won just three games against central teams, and were 6-24 against the west. New York had just five wins against teams above .500, and were 12-22 against teams below .500.
The front court of Mitchell Robinson and Julius Randle will be a fun one to watch, and fantasy wise the Knicks will have potential. However, it is hard to see it transition into wins. The backcourt is filled with boom or bust names, and efficiency scoring of Barrett is still a question mark. New York was bottom ten in both points per game and points allowed per game. Last year they had an over/under set at 28.5. I’m not buying into the offseason moves to lift them to 30 wins.
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