NBA Win Totals 2023-24: Updated Over/Under Odds For NBA Teams Today
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NBA win totals (2023-24) are now available for all teams! The NBA win totals are up-to-date; they reflect the current odds of each NBA team’s success and include any substantial off-season moves. Below, we will cover many of the best win total futures for the NBA, so take a look at some of your favorite ones and prepare to place some bets!
NBA Win Totals 2023-34
NBA win totals for the 2023-24 season will be actively updated in the tiles below throughout the regular season. Clicking on the odds associated with a given sportsbook will redirect you to their page and invite you to sign up if you have not already. Take advantage of our active promotions with many of these sportsbooks throughout our site!
NBA Win Totals: Who’s Hot And Who’s Not?
Since the 2023-24 regular season has yet to kick off, there are not any “hot” or “not” teams available to discuss. However, once the season begins, we will update this section monthly to discuss our favorite win totals at that juncture of the year. For now, take a look at our favorite NBA Win Totals odds below!
*Last Updated: November 27, 2023
Hot: Orlando Magic
We were high on the Orlando Magic before the start of the 2023-24 campaign, but they have exceeded even the expectations of their biggest optimists. Currently, Orlando is 12-5 and tied for second in the Eastern Conference; the Magic are already almost one-third of the way to their opening projected win total.
Orlando has rattled off seven consecutive wins, beating opponents like Boston, Milwaukee, Indiana, and Denver in the process. During that stretch, the Magic have the second-highest net rating in the NBA behind only Oklahoma City. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have been masterful; however, it has been the unexpected bench play of Mo Wagner and Cole Anthony that has gotten this team over the hump.
Not: Memphis Grizzlies
For the second consecutive “Win Totals: Hot or Not” update, the Memphis Grizzlies have been listed under the “Not” section. Memphis has lost four straight games after narrowly beating the horrendous San Antonio Spurs on the road; it took a huge second-half comeback for the Grizz to avoid suffering a loss in that bout, too.
This team has been plagued with injuries and suspensions, with Ja Morant, Steven Adams, and Brandon Clarke missing every game thus far, and Luke Kennard, Marcus Smart, and Xavier Tillman being out for most of the games. Regardless, the Grizzlies still deploy two All-Star-caliber players in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane, and they still aren’t getting anywhere.
Jackson is having his most inefficient season to date (41.1% shooting from the field) and Bane is now being double-teamed nearly every possession. It will only get worse from here, and Morant’s return won’t fix this team completely.
Favorite NBA Win Totals Overs: Preseason
NBA Win Totals are a fun NBA futures bet to throw some coin on, but there is a ton of volatility within a season: coaching changes, trades, teams “tanking” for a high lottery pick, cold streaks, chemistry issues, and injuries have all derailed regular season campaigns before. However, our list below for the NBA Win Totals “Overs” section features a group of teams that we believe can avoid those misfortunes and help us cash our futures next spring!
Memphis Grizzlies
Addition by subtraction is a phrase that makes perfect sense in relation to the Memphis Grizzlies’ off-season. Memphis decided to move on from Dillon Brooks; he was unpredictable and inefficient for a team that could not afford either.
However, what came next was completely unexpected: the Grizzlies traded Tyus Jones and two first-rounders for former Defensive Player of the Year winner Marcus Smart, a versatile defender who can guard 1-4. The existing market for “3-and-D” forwards like O.G. Anunoby and Mikal Bridges was way too pricey, so the Grizzlies’ President of Basketball Operations, Zach Kleiman, called an audible.
Between Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson Jr commanding the interior and protecting the rim on defense, the Grizzlies didn’t necessarily have to land a traditionally-sized small forward to stick into the starting lineup. Further, Smart can play point guard while Ja Morant serves his 25-game suspension.
Even with Morant out, there is plenty of reason to believe Memphis can win 46 or more games and start off hot. For one, Steven Adams will be healthy, giving the Grizzlies the best offensive rebounder and screen-setter back on the floor. As a matter of fact, Adams’ impact can be quantified by the tweet below; he is invaluable to this basketball team.
Additionally, the acquisition of Luke Kennard gives Memphis two of the best three-point shooters (Kennard and Desmond Bane) in the league; they will help spread the floor, while Steven Adams will “box out” his defender in the paint, giving Ja Morant all of the space to operate in isolation that he could ever need.
Bane and Kennard have the two highest 3P% since the start of the 2021-22 season out of all players who have attempted more than five 3PA per game and have played in at least 100 games.
Memphis has all of its bases covered now with its three-point shooting, rebounding, defense, and veteran leadership. The Grizzlies also have the star power to compete with any team in the NBA. There is little doubt that they will win 46 or more games, despite Morant’s absence at the beginning of the season; they boast a 31-15 record without him since the start of the 2021-22 campaign.
Full season comparison of the Grizzlies’ league rank with Steven Adams and without him after his injury… pic.twitter.com/Lrq9w3ZG4I
— Steven Adams Stats (@funakistats) July 10, 2023
It’s almost like people forget that New Orleans was tied for the best record in the Western Conference last season from the beginning of the 2022-23 campaign until the end of December. Unfortunately, the Pelicans then lost Zion Williamson to an injury just a few days after, sending them on a free fall for the duration of the year.
And, of course, that is always the risk with this Pelicans team, as well as any other team’s future bets: you can’t guarantee health. Zion’s ability to stay healthy has been relatively poor since coming into the league, and that could cause issues for the Pelicans long-term, but the upside is still here with this win total number.
Regarding starting lineups, there are few that boast as much talent as New Orleans; it will roll out CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy III, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, and Jonas Valanciunas. That lineup can go toe-to-toe with any in the Western Conference, including the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets.
Murphy’s massive late-season ascension (21.5 points per game on a 52/46/90 shooting split in the Pels’ last 15 games), along with the expected improvements of Dyson Daniels and Herb Jones, should give New Orleans more than enough offensive firepower to be a top five or six team in the Western Conference with relative ease.
Added shooting in the form of rookie Jordan Hawkins, arguably the best movement shooter in the 2023 draft class, also could propel the Pels from the 15th-best three-point shooting team (3P%) to a top six or seven shooting team.
This is the kind of buy-low opportunity that makes sense for Pels’ future bets; they have the talent, even without Zion, to be an above-.500 team.
Indiana Pacers
There might not be an “over” that our team is higher on than the Indiana Pacers’ win total. Indiana has made a number of splashy moves that should add to its chances of being a playoff-contending team in a very “gettable” Eastern Conference.
For one, the Pacers signed Bruce Brown, a significant bench contributor for the 2022-23 Denver Nuggets championship team. He is an excellent connector piece for this bench unit and can even slip into the starting 5 in some matchups.
Additionally, Indiana also stole Obi Toppin from the Knicks. Imagine Toppin in the P&R with Haliburton and just being on a team that can adequately space the floor. This could be a massive ascension year for Toppin, and he will solve all of the Pacers’ frontcourt issues, along with first-round draft pick Jarace Walker, who showed a ton of promise in summer league.
Further, we can expect Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, and Benn Mathurin to all improve year over year, as they are all super young and have terrific upside. Myles Turner flourished last season playing the “five” the whole year, increasing his points per game by five and shooting much higher percentages; he’s still only 27, so he could easily replicate that output this season.
The bottom line for the Pacers, and the X-Factor for this bet, will be the health of Tyrese Haliburton. In 26 games last season without Hali, Indiana only won 7. With him, they played .500 ball, going 28-28. They boasted a high-octane offense that could shoot the three, as well as nearly every team they played against. Expect to see that once again this season!
Sacramento Kings
Sacramento finished last season with an impressive 48-34 record, yet enters the preseason with a win total line at 43.5 games. Why? The roster improvements of former bottom-dwelling teams like the San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks, and Utah Jazz could certainly be a viable reason; there certainly won’t be as many “easy wins” for Sacramento this season in the Western Conference.
Still, the Kings’ win total is too low.
Despite having a rough playoff stretch, Domantas Sabonis has proved to be one of the best playmaking big men in the game, finally putting every part of his game together. If it weren’t for all-time great Nikola Jokic stealing his thunder, Sabonis would be heralded much more for his multi-dimensional offensive game.
Further, De’Aaron Fox proved to be the late-game clutch player that the Kings needed; he is someone that can continue to bring success and prosperity to Sacramento, a city that had been in a substantial playoff drought before last year. Fox boasted the best clutch rating out of any player in the NBA.
Meanwhile, Harrison Barnes is the only major contributor and starter over 30 years old, and his role is relatively small; he is a system player in Sacramento, able to get hot at times offensively, but not someone it needs to rely heavily upon.
While Sacramento did not make any Earth-shattering moves this off-season, it did bring over one of the most decorated EuroLeague players in history in 6-foot-9 stretch-four, Sasha Vezenkov. Vezenkov immediately adds the necessary depth to Sacramento’s frontcourt to make it a contender.
The Kings also drafted win-now guard Colby Jones, who could play a similar role to Christian Braun on last year’s Nuggets squad. Even the low-risk addition of Chris Duarte from the Pacers, a perimeter player who thrived with Sabonis in Indiana, could pay dividends. This is not a “one-year wonder” team.
Orlando Magic
Don’t get us wrong; we don’t believe the Orlando Magic are quite in a position to be world-beaters, but they have already made substantial year-over-year improvements. The acquisition of Paolo Banchero and the improvement of Franz Wagner resulted in 12 more wins from 2021-22 (22) to 2022-23 (34); that is a sizable chunk of games without making any substantial moves besides drafting a rookie.
Jamahl Mosely might just be the man for the job. On several occasions last season, Mosely had his guys prepared for games against top-tier teams (3-1 record against the Celtics last year), and came out victorious; this team certainly competes, and now, the talent is there to match that intensity.
For the upcoming 2023-24 campaign, sportsbooks have assigned the Magic’s win total at 36.5. They need to win three more games this year to cash the over on their win total. Can they do it?
The short answer is yes. Orlando finally has a healthy and confident Markelle Fultz to shape up its backcourt; he is fresh off a 14-point, six-assist, and four-rebound season on nearly 52% shooting from the field. Additionally, the Magic will hopefully have Gary Harris at full health, as he only played 48 games last season. When Harris was on the floor, he shot 43% from behind the arc, an elite number that should catapult the Magic from their measly 34.6% team shooting from deep (25th in the NBA.)
Banchero and Wagner are also both capable and ever-improving three-point shooters. In particular, Paolo shot below 30% in his rookie year but has shown flashes. Orlando also brought in veteran Joe Ingles, a career 41% three-point shooter, to chip in off the bench.
Further, Orlando played over .500 ball from January 1st until April 2nd with a 21-20 record; the Magic punted the last four games of the regular season but had been extremely competitive until then. Expect more improvements this season and a near-.500 record. Orlando might even squeak into the playoffs.
Favorite NBA Win Totals Unders: Preseason
It is not always sunshine and rainbows for every NBA team; some squads are bound to underperform relative to expectations. Our job is to try and identify which teams will fall short in this upcoming season. Check out the complete list of our favorite preseason “unders” below!
Denver is fresh off a championship season and a dominant playoff run where it went 16-4; it was undoubtedly the best team in the NBA behind the dynamic duo of two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. So, why would we want to fade the Nuggets? There are a few reasons.
The reality with NBA teams that win a championship is that they often have “hangovers” the following season. As a matter of fact, in six of the past seven seasons, the prior champion has failed to eclipse the Over on their win total that following season, with the only exception being the Toronto Raptors. However, Toronto’s expectations for the following season were much lower simply due to the fact that Kawhi Leonard, its best player, signed with the Los Angeles Clippers in the off-season.
Additionally, Denver might have narrowly eclipsed its current win total (52.5) in its last season (53 wins in 2022-23), but there are two reasons why that scares us. First, this team is a weaker version of what it was last season. The Nuggets had Bruce Brown and Jeff Green as two of their top three bench players on what was already considered a bottom-tier bench, but now won’t have either of those guys for the 2023-24 campaign. Denver will look to replace those guys with Peyton Watson and Justin Holiday. Those are substantial downgrades.
The second reason is simple: the Western Conference is going to be much tougher this season. Look at all of the teams that have improved their rosters this off-season, including Phoenix, Memphis, Los Angeles (Lakers), Sacramento, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Golden State, Oklahoma City, and Utah. Further, the Clippers, Pelicans, and Timberwolves might not have improved much, but are still dangerous teams with loads of talent.
All of this is enough to make us feel that getting to 53 wins again is going to be a tough ask for this Nuggets team that boasts one of the worst benches in the NBA.
When you can identify several reasons why a team will fall short of their expected win total, then it is probably a good hint to take their “under.” That is precisely what we have here with the Golden State Warriors, a team that is on its last legs.
Golden State is amongst the oldest teams in the NBA, with Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Chris Paul all in their mid-to-late 30s. The injury bug has also started to rear its ugly head over the past handful of years, as Thompson has missed multiple seasons due to Achilles and ACL tears, while Steph Curry has failed to appear in 65 or more regular season games in five of the past six seasons. Chris Paul has missed substantial postseason time since the 2015 playoffs, too.
Unfortunately, as a player ages, injuries become more and more of a problem; the Warriors are not immune to the injury bug, and that alone makes betting on their “over” a scary proposition.
Additionally, the Warriors have substantial issues on the road; they finished with an 11-30 record away from Chase Center last season, and nowhere near all of that can be blamed on the Jordan Poole-Draymond Green drama. Golden State is known for resting its stars and punting games; it does not care about winning 73 games in the regular season like it once did. Now, the Dubs’ only focus is winning enough games to get to the postseason, no matter what seed. That approach is not favorable for a Warriors’ over bettor.
Lastly, it is time to consider that the Western Conference might have more parity than it has in a long time. There are ten or 11 teams that could realistically make the playoffs, meaning that there will be no “easy wins” as there have been in prior seasons. Staying healthy will be hard enough for Golden State. Winning 50 games will be nearly impossible.
San Antonio Spurs
Remember in “National Treasure” when Nic Cage (San Antonio) finds the treasure (Victor Wembanyama), and then Cage tries to bargain his way out of jail time? The first thing that came to my mind when looking at the San Antonio Spurs’ win total was this line from Harvey Keitel’s character: “Someone (one of the Western Conference bottom dwellers) has gotta go to prison, Ben.”
Unfortunately for the Spurs and their betting optimists, there is no “Ian” (the fall guy) like there was in the movie. They will instead likely find themselves in prison (losing that bet.)
San Antonio won just 22 games last season but will now be tasked with winning 30 games this season if it wants to clear the win total. We can see the questions rolling in now: “But didn’t you all say Wemby was supposed to be generational?”
Sure. However, almost any (if not every) generational talent at 19 years old is not taking this abysmal Spurs team to 30 wins in a hyper-competitive Western Conference. While San Antonio improved drastically on draft day when it got the opportunity to select Wembanyama, that alone will not be enough to overcome the fact that every other Western Conference team either improved their roster, too, or, at least, didn’t regress enough to be as bad as the Spurs.
Let’s look at the other bottom dwellers in the west: Houston, Utah, and Portland. The Rockets have a new-look lineup that should be much more competitive this season; they signed Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks and drafted Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore. Kevin Porter Jr. will be a scoring force off the bench in a sixth-man role, which fits his play style better, while Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun should take massive steps forward. Houston has a much better rotation than the Spurs.
The Jazz didn’t have a world-beating off-season, but they did draft Taylor Hendricks and Keyonte George while also trading for forward John Collins. Now, Utah boasts a front line of All-Star Lauri Markkanen, Collins, and DPOY candidate Walker Kessler, while also having veteran Kelly Olynyk at their disposal off the bench. Joining those three in the starting lineup will be sparkplug scorer Jordan Clarkson and high-intensity guard Collin Sexton. It’s hard to see the Spurs finishing better than this team.
That only leaves Portland, who still has a somewhat competitive roster despite the inevitable Damian Lillard trade. If the Blazers get a few strong pieces to add to their core of Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Jerami Grant, and Jusuf Nurkic, then they will also probably be better than San Antonio.
All things considered, the Spurs will improve with Wemby’s arrival, but not by eight games in this talented conference.
Much like the Western Conference last season, we can expect more parity in the east for the upcoming 2023-24 campaign. While a number of teams (Cleveland, New York, Indiana, Orlando, and, potentially, Miami) objectively improved their rosters, the Brooklyn Nets made no sizable moves.
After trading Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn put together a somewhat modest 12-15 record behind efficient play from Mikal Bridges. However, we do not expect that to carry over as much this upcoming season. Bridges leaned on tough shot-making and the element of surprise to post 26 points per game for Brooklyn, but will be the focus of defenses this year; his averages should drop a bit.
Further, Brooklyn is the worst rebounding team in the league and made no improvement to its brutally undersized frontcourt. Even with 6-foot-11 forward Kevin Durant attacking the glass for the first two-thirds of the 2022-23 season, the Nets still struggled immensely. Now that Durant is gone, Brooklyn will have to rely on Dorian Finney-Smith, Ben Simmons, Day’Ron Sharpe, and Nic Claxton for rebounds. Brutal.
Brooklyn also lost three excellent three-point shooters (Joe Harris, Seth Curry, and Yuta Watanabe), as well as Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant (via trades.) Spencer Dinwiddie, Mikal Bridges, and Cameron Johnson are capable shooters from deep, but having Claxton, Simmons, and DFS on the floor interchangeably could result in overall inconsistency and spacing issues.
As a middle-of-the-road defensive team that struggles with three-point shooting and rebounding, it is challenging to see where this team will pick up wins; they will lose most non-conference games and only have a few teams they can count on always beating in the Eastern Conference. Fade this team.
For the Sixers to win 50 games in an Eastern Conference that is achieving more parity as the years go on, they need James Harden to be motivated and in full health (in great physical shape.)
Unfortunately, there seems to be quite a bit of animosity between Harden and the Sixers, and the tension between the two parties could continue to escalate unless he is traded somewhere before the start of the 2023-24 regular season.
Philadelphia’s President of Basketball Operations, Daryl Morey, is no stranger to dealing with situations like this. Not long ago, Ben Simmons and Morey also had disagreements that resulted in Simmons being dealt to the Nets; however, it took a lot of time for that deal to get done.
If Philly begins the season without Harden on the floor or is unable to strike a deal and bring in a few quality players to replace him, it might not be smooth sailing for this squad. The Sixers still have plenty of talent in reigning MVP Joel Embiid and up-and-coming star guard Tyrese Maxey, but they might not be able to reach 50 wins with P.J. Tucker and Patrick Beverley starting for them.
Harden was a huge reason why the Sixers performed so well offensively; they ranked first in 3P% and third in points per possession in the halfcourt, per Cleaning The Glass. The Sixers boasted a 15-9 record without Harden in 2022-23, but their 3P% dropped, as well as their points per game and assists per game. In short, this team is substantially worse without Harden, at least in the regular season. With so much uncertainty, it makes sense to fade this team.
The sample size for the Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving dynamic duo is not very large, but a story can still be derived from it. When both players are available, the Mavericks put together a 5-11 record in 16 games. Needless to say, that is not what the Mavs were expecting when they struck a deal with the Brooklyn Nets to bring in one of the most talented ball-handlers of all time.
Perhaps, that is part of the problem. Irving and Doncic are two ball-dominant offensive juggernauts but, unfortunately, there is only one ball to go around. While Doncic and Irving certainly have the capability of transitioning to lessened usage, it could take some time and there is none of that in a Western Conference that is well distributed in terms of talent.
Another concern beyond simply their offensive chemistry is the defensive end of the floor, as neither Doncic or Irving could be considered more than an average defender. When both are on the floor, defensive breakdowns are sure to occur, particularly on the perimeter. The Mavs boasted a defensive rating of 120 in the 20 games that Irving played in during the final stretch of the 2022-23 regular season. How can we expect a significantly better result?
Lastly, the Mavs’ frontcourt is not nearly strong enough to justify being this high on them. Dallas may have added Grant Williams, who will be a solid interior defender, good catch-and-shoot threat, and an overall physical presence, but is that acquisition alone enough for it to make substantial progression from the second-worst rebounding and third-worst rim protecting team in the league? Not likely.
Defense and rebounding will be problematic areas for the Mavs and if they don’t boast the same offensive efficiency as a team like Sacramento, then it is difficult to see them finishing in the top four or five of the Western Conference.
Final NBA Win Totals Thoughts
Plenty of exciting NBA win totals for the 2023-24 season could interest eager basketball futures bettors for the next several months. It seems that crazy moves happen every off-season now. Thus, the NBA Win Totals odds must be adjusted accordingly throughout the off-season and until the trade deadline.
Still, it is important to remember that value can be found before the season starts and even during the year, as certain teams will go through the highs and lows of the 82-game season. For instance, buying low on the Milwaukee Bucks‘ win total last season before they went on their 16-game winning streak would have been a no- sweat bet for Bucks optimists.
All things considered, it is imperative to take into account trends, streaks, injuries, and roster/coaching changes regardless of when you decide to take an NBA Win Totals bet.
NBA Win Totals Explained And Odds Changes
NBA win totals define how many wins a team is expected to win. For example, if the odds are even for the Indiana Pacers winning 25.5 wins, they are expected to win 25.5 games exactly. If you believe they will win more, then you would bet the over. Meanwhile, you would want to bet the under if you think they will underperform this year and struggle.
NBA win totals and odds constantly change depending on specific catalysts throughout the season. These could include hot and cold streaks, injuries, trades, coaching changes, and locker room issues! As time goes on, it gets easier to predict whether a team will get to its mark or not, and that is why the odds are generally more favorable before the season starts.
NBA Win Totals Futures Bettors
NBA win totals are best for future bettors who feel incredibly strongly about the direction of a particular team. Suppose you think the Boston Celtics are underrated because of the off-season trade that landed them Kristaps Porzingis, one of the best two-way stretch fours in the NBA. In that case, the Celtics’ win total future may be for you as the over could look appealing.
NBA Win Totals FAQ
What are NBA Win Totals Odds?
NBA Win Totals odds are the calculated odds for how many games any particular team will win. For instance, if the New Orleans Pelicans have a projected win total of 45.5 games, you can either bet them to win more (over) or less (under.)
Can you bet on NBA Win Totals throughout the season?
Yes, you can bet on NBA Win Totals odds throughout each season, but as the season continues, the margin of error becomes smaller for you to win the bet. The odds will be updated during the season according to how a team is performing at that time.
Which types of bettors like NBA Win Totals?
Futures bettors, and bettors that have a firm conviction in the direction of a particular team, like to bet on NBA Win Totals. Since these are futures bets, they take a while to pay out, so not every type of bettor likes them.
How many games are in an NBA season?
The usual NBA season has 82 games in a regular season, not including the playoff games that come after. In the 2019-2020 and 2021-22 seasons, there were less than 82 games played due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Lockouts can also cause a shortened season, like in 2011-12.
Where can you bet on NBA Win Totals?
Any sportsbook that offers NBA futures will usually have win totals for all or most NBA teams available. Occasionally, throughout the season, specific teams will be pulled from sportsbooks while they try to reassess the value of the respective teams.
