North Carolina State vs. Virginia kicks off this Friday at 7:30 pm EST in Charlottesville as a home game for the Cavaliers. North Carolina State is currently a -9.5 favorite and -365 on the moneyline while the total is set at 46.5. Read on for more North Carolina State vs. Virginia best bets and predictions as Virginia’s struggles look to continue on rolling into this week.
North Carolina State Vs. Virginia Prediction & Best Bet
After giving Maryland a scare early in their contest, the Cavaliers came crashing hard back down to reality in what ended up being a blowout win for the Terps. In desperation, Virginia turned towards creative trick plays to try and keep within scoring pace. That worked until the second half where their lack of Off Success Rate kicked in and Virginia failed to maintain any sort of consistency with their drives down the field.
They now get a North Carolina State defense that has built their success the past few years on the backs of their defense. Lucky for Virginia, that has not been the case thus far as the Wolfpack rank 68th in total Def Success Rate. Their pass defense has maintained an above average rank in that department, but their ground game has plummeted to a lowly 76th in Def Rush Success Rate.
Virginia’s offense needs all the help that they can get as this unit is abysmal. Their offense did show some sort of progression early on against Maryland, proving that they are capable of moving the ball when quarterback Anthony Colandrea isn’t turning it over. The issue is the lack of Success Rate, meaning it’s boom or bust for this offense which is never an ideal recipe of success.
As for the Wolfpack, their offense has taken a step back in terms of production with former Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong manning the helm. An oddity as Armstrong was supposed to be a seamless transition to maintaining respectable passing metrics, yet NCST has dropped to average at best in Pass Success Rate and Pass PPA. Lucky for them, the ground game has started off hot by clocking in a top-20 Rush Success Rate.
With the run constantly putting NCST’s offense in friendly field position by getting more than half of the distance to gain, this opens up their playbook to Armstrong’s benefit. Virginia serves as no threat on the defensive end, failing to limit any sort of consistency through the air. This game serves as a perfect spot for NCST to get their offense back on track, putting them in a position to pull away early and maintain their lead with an exceptional defense.
North Carolina State Vs. Virginia Prediction & Best Bet: North Carolina State -9
North Carolina State Vs. Virginia Betting Odds
Even with the NCST offense in flux, oddsmakers still believe this is their game to lose as they opened the Wolfpack as a -9 favorite. Bettors are in agreement, taking the number up to -9.5 in some shops. With Virginia’s defense failing to limit any sort of consistency, the Wolfpack are in a position to move the ball down the field with ease. A sight we have yet to see as this unit has struggled with consistency.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a normal pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 45.5. In correlation to the Wolfpack’s offense potentially finding more consistency, bettors have steamed the over up to as high as 47. The question is if Virginia’s offense can do their part. After once again falling apart in the second half in their last game out, it’s hard to put any stock in this offense to put it all together for a full length of a game.
North Carolina State Vs. Virginia Key Matchups
Can North Carolina State’s Brennan Armstrong continue to find success on the ground?
Brennan Armstrong Vs. Virginia Front Seven
It’s safe to say NCST’s offense lives and dies by the production of quarterback Brennan Armstrong as he leads the team in both passing and rushing. Not only in total rushing yards but attempts as well, comfortably leading any running back that has seen the field.
— NC State Football (@PackFootball) September 1, 2023
An oddity but may be the common theme this week as Virginia’s second level has failed to stop any sort of the run thus far in the season. With near dead last advanced metrics in Def Rush Success Rate and Def Rush PPA, Armstrong should have no issue with finding open field as he scrambles out the pocket.