2021 New England Patriots Betting Preview
After suffering their first losing season in 20 years, the New England Patriots are BACK. Bill Belichick hates the taste of losing in his mouth, so much so that he did something he never does and spent a ton of money on free agents. Belichick threw money at everyone and used the enormous cap space the Patriots had to sign quality veterans like Matthew Judon, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Nelson Agholor, and Jalen Mills.
Something else that not many NFL fans know is that the Patriots had the most opt-outs in the league due to COVID, so guys like Dont’a Hightower and Brandon Bolden. QB Cam Newton also had COVID during the season, and his play reflected that he wasn’t the same player before and after the virus entered his body.
With some of those quality starters returning, the new free agent bringing juice to the team, and Cam Newton getting a full offseason fully immerse himself in the “Patriot Way,” the Patriots are a darkhorse playoff team in a crowded AFC playoff picture.
2020 New England Patriots Team Stats
- Points For: 334
- Points Against: 357
- Passing Yards Per Game: 180.6
- Rushing Yards Per Game: 146.6
- Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 222.3
- Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 131.4
Key Offseason Transactions
The Patriots were huge buyers in the free-agent market. The Patriots were one of the least talented teams in the NFL last season and needed the boost that the free-agent market brings. They needed help everywhere, but the most important was their offensive skill positions. With the huge cap space the Patriots had, they used it to sign wide receivers like Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, as well as tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry.
This will be huge as guys like Jacobi Meyers and N’keal Harry were not getting the job done. The Patriots’ defense was the unit that carried the team all season, but they also need some help. Linebacker and leader of the defense Dont’a Hightower is back after opting out, and new free agents like LB Matthew Judon and CB Jalen Mills are big additions to an already stellar defense.
The gigantic story with the Patriots is their quarterback situation as Bill Belichick did something he never does in the draft and picked a quarterback with his first-round pick. QB Mac Jones is on the Patriots, and he looks like the next coming of Tom Brady with his supreme intellect, deadly accuracy, and flabby physical shape. Jones will compete against Cam Newton for the starting job, and Belichick is going to choose the guy best for the team.
2020 New England Patriots Betting Stats
ATS +/-: -1.2
Total +/-: +4
2021 New England Patriots Betting Outlook
The only reason the Patriots stayed in games last season was because of their defense. The Patriots’ offense was among the worst in the league, and thus there was a lot of low over/under points totals and close spreads when betting on the Patriots in 2020. This year could be the same situation, or it could be completely different. That’s the thing about New England.
They are so smart and so adaptive that they can change from week to week. And now, with the roster they have built, we really never know what we’re going to get. We could see the New England led by Cam Newton and Damien Harris that runs the ball and plays solid defense, and has the same type of games that they did in 2020.
We could also see Mac Jones at the helm throwing to James White, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, and Nelson Agholor that puts up 40 points in a shootout. The first domino that needs to fall for bettors to get an idea of how New England is going to play in 2021 is who becomes the starting quarterback.
New England Patriots Super Bowl Odds
The Patriots are tied for the 10th best odds to win the Super Bowl at +3300. These odds are tied to more talented teams in the Los Angeles Chargers and Arizona Cardinals. The real reason that the Patriots have these odds is not because of the new and improved roster but more because of the Belichick factor.
The last time Belichick had a losing season, I was still in diapers. Now I’m a rising junior in college, so it’s been a while. Belichick is out for revenge this season, and I feel bad for whoever stands in his way. But the road to the playoffs isn’t easy in the AFC.
There are a bunch of worthy wildcard playoff teams like the Dolphins, Chargers, Ravens, Steelers, and Colts, so the Patriots are going to need to win around 11 games if they want a wildcard spot. Belichick has been to the Super Bowl plenty of times, so if there is one man I want to lead my team, you bet your butt that I want Belichick.
New England Patriots Playoff Odds
Many of the betting experts don’t think the Patriots will claim a wild card spot in the AFC. Currently, the odds that the Patriots will reach the playoffs are at +144, and the odds that they don’t are -177. Like I said before, the AFC has around 5 or 6 teams for 3 wildcard spots meaning every game for the Patriots matters more than ever.
They are not only competing with fellow AFC East mates in the Miami Dolphins, but they are also fighting with teams like the Colts, Browns, Ravens, Steelers, and Chargers. This is not favorable to the Patriots, as even with their huge offseason spending spree, they are still one of the worst teams out of the bunch. But if there is anyone who knows how to do more than less, it’s Bill Belichick, and they will at least be in the playoff picture come late December.
New England Patriots Win Total Odds
The over/under for the Patriots wins total is set at 9. The odds for the over is -121, and the odds for the under is +100. The Patriots are in an interesting situation as all but 5 or 6 games are unwinnable. The odds that they don’t lose to the Buccaneers, Bills, Colts, Browns, Titans, Chargers, and split with Miami is unlikely. The Patriots still get to play some easier games against the Jets twice, Panthers, Saints, Falcons, Cowboys, and Jaguars, but none of those wins are guaranteed.
The Patriots will never be blown out of games, but they are going to lose a game that they shouldn’t, which will be the difference between the over and under for this win total. I would stay away from this bet if you can.
New England Patriots Players Futures Odds
The Patriots have no legitimate candidates for any of the major awards in the NFL. They don’t have one guy that can win either of the MVP, OPOY, DPOY, or DROY. The only award that a Patriots’ player can win is the OROY, and that’s only on the off chance that Mac Jones is the starter in Week 1 and plays better than other rookie quarterbacks like Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance.
Jones’ odds for OROY are at +650, which is tied with Zach Wilson and Justin Fields, and only behind Trevor Lawrence. That’s not going to happen, so while the Patriots have no star player, they have a collection of guys who will play tough and win enough games to stay in the playoff hunt.