Patriots Odds to Win Super Bowl 2021
Patriots Odds to Win Super Bowl: +2300
Patriots Win Total: 9
Patriots Odds to Win Division: +130
Patriots Odds to Win Conference: +1000
Patriots Odds Analysis
The Patriots relied heavily on their suffocating defense and timely offense to put together a 12-4 regular season in 2019-20. The result was another AFC East division title, the franchise’s 11th straight and 17th in the last 19 years. The dynastic run of dominance is one for the ages, made even more impressive by the NFL’s salary cap rules to ensure parity. As the 2020-21 season approaches, it is fair to wonder if the Patriots’ time as kings of the division has finally ended.
Even with the critical changing of the guard at the quarterback position, the betting market still thinks highly of the Patriots. New England’s Super Bowl LV odds of +2300 at FanDuel Sportsbook are the 9th shortest of all 32 NFL teams. Their AFC title odds of +1000 are the third shortest in the conference. The Patriots’ season win total sits at an even 9 with some hefty juice to the under.
AFC East Betting Analysis
For the first time in a long time, the Patriots aren’t considered a true favorite to win their division. Instead, they are listed as co-favorites with the Buffalo Bills at +130 odds. The New York Jets are listed at +700 while the Miami Dolphins bring up the rear at +750.
In case you haven’t already heard the news, Tom Brady is no longer a New England Patriot. As a result, there is a level of uncertainty hanging around the Patriots offense as training camps approach. The Bills are believed to be the heir apparent to the AFC East throne. They bolstered their case with an excellent offseason that saw them address several needs. Despite their longshot status, both the Jets and Dolphins figure to be much improved this season as well.
In terms of strength of schedule relative to 2019-20 winning percentage, the Patriots will face the toughest road of any team in the NFL. New England’s AFC East cohorts also all face schedules that are ranked in the top five in terms of difficulty. This is largely due to divisional playthroughs against the deep AFC and NFC West divisions. New England’s final three games come against each of their divisional foes, meaning they will have the opportunity to have the last say. Another area that sticks out is a midseason run against the San Francisco 49ers, Bills, Jets, and Baltimore Ravens, all coming in consecutive weeks.
Patriots Offseason and Draft
When you lose Tom Brady, your offseason has to fall into the losing category. The Patriots also made some questionable decisions in the NFL Draft. Questionable perhaps to everyone but Bill Belichick.
Rather than sign a free agent quarterback or draft a top prospect, the Patriots are sticking with in-house replacement Jarrett Stidham, at least for now. The second-year man out of Auburn spent his entire rookie season backing up Brady. Some rumblings have been made about a potential Cam Newton signing. Only time will tell.
Assuming Stidham is the Week 1 QB, he will be working with a receiving corps that lacks much in the way of proven depth. Julian Edelman could be in line to get peppered with targets, while Mohamed Sanu is essentially the team’s second option at wideout at this juncture. 2019 first-round pick N’Keal Harry is full of potential. New England signed both Damiere Byrd and Marqise Lee in free agency. While neither move is particularly splashy, they will join Jakobi Meyers as depth pieces. Matt LaCosse heads up the tight end depth chart, but the Patriots drafted a pair of rookies in Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene, with the former of particular intrigue when it comes to the passing attack.
The Patriots backfield is traditionally one of the most unpredictable in terms of who can be counted on to see consistent workload. James White is the top pass catcher and pass protector, while Sony Michel has been the lead rusher. Rex Burkhead also remains on the roster, and 2019 draft pick Damien Harris could also be in line for increased run in his sophomore NFL season. All backs will enjoy running behind a formidable line, led by tackles Marcus Cannon and Isaiah Wynn.
Despite experiencing some turnover at key spots, the Patriots defense once again figures to be the rock of the team. Linebacker Brandon Copeland, tackle Beau Allen, and safeties Adrian Phillips and Cody Davis are among the notable free agent additions. Dont’a Hightower will continue to anchor the middle, while the secondary is particularly menacing. Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty will hold down the corner positions while the new safeties will be depth behind Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung.
-Superb Defensive Secondary
-Strong Defensive Front with Pass Rushing Ability
-Offensive Line Continuity
-Good Mix of Proven Vets and Young Talent at the Skill Positions
-Question Mark at Quarterback
-Receivers Aren’t Particularly Scary
-Key Contributors from Defense Departed
-Toughest Schedule in NFL
The biggest question regarding this year’s edition of the Patriots concerns their ability to move the ball and put up points. If they can do so in the absence of Tom Brady, the defense should have no trouble slowing down opponents. It’ll be an uglier brand of football in Foxborough than we are used to, but the Patriots shouldn’t be dismissed entirely just yet.
With that said, there is no way I am buying into any of the Patriots futures odds. With a total unknown at the quarterback position, I view New England’s Super Bowl, AFC Championship, and even their AFC East divisional odds as being way overpriced. They could win the division, but I’d sooner back the Bills at the same +130 odds.
Given the brutal schedule the Patriots face, a bet on the under of the 9-game win total is an option. From a value standpoint, the juice makes it somewhat unappealing, but I’d still rather back the under than the over. My favorite New England play on the board is betting no on the team making the playoffs at +166. This falls in the same line of thinking as an under on the win total but offers much better value.
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