New England Patriots Super Bowl Odds 2022
The Patriots finished last season with their first losing record since 2000 as Tom Brady left in free agency and Cam Newton struggled to come close to Brady’s elite play. New England finished with the sixth-lowest scoring offense in the NFL with just 20.4 points per game. The defense was still pretty solid as the seventh-best scoring unit, but Bill Belichick’s group overall struggled to maintain consistency and finished third in the AFC East.
The Patriots added more pass-catching talent and shored up their defense this offseason. Newton is reportedly healthier this offseason than he was last year, and he’ll be in a compelling competition with first-round rookie Mac Jones at quarterback. Will it be enough to return to the playoffs or even make a dark-horse bid for the Super Bowl?
New England Patriots Team Future Odds
- Super Bowl Odds:
- To Win AFC:
- To Win AFC East:
- To Earn AFC #1 Seed:
- To Make Playoffs:
New England finished with the third-fewest passing yards and the second-fewest passing touchdowns last season, as inconsistent quarterback play from Cam Newton was not helped by an underwhelming pass-catching corps. Bill Belichick recognized this weakness this offseason and set out to fix it by signing tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry and wide receivers Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. The Patriots will be hoping these additions can help fuel a more efficient passing offense this season. Newton and rookie first-round pick Mac Jones will be competing for the right to throw to these new pass-catchers.
Additionally, the offensive line underwent a bit of transition this offseason. Starting offensive guard Joe Thuney left for the Chiefs, and offensive tackle Marcus Cannon signed with the Texans. Trent Brown will provide a potential upgrade over Cannon at right tackle while starting center David Andrews was resigned. The duo of Michael Onwenu and Shaquille Mason will handle the starting guard spots. New England has a stout offensive line, and it should be a driving force in their success this season. Bill Belichick has invested serious resources into the offensive line, and it’s resulted in one of the best groups in football.
The Patriots also added some serious talent to their front seven to help generate more pass rush for a team that had just 24 sacks last year, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. Matt Judon, Kyle Van Noy, Henry Anderson, and Davon Godchaux were all signed in free agency as potential starters, while Christian Barmore was a high-upside addition in the second round of the draft. Ronnie Perkins was also drafted in the third round as another rotational edge defender. The additions of safeties/cornerbacks Jalen Mills and Adrian Colbert will also provide the secondary with more depth.
Patriots Odds Analysis
The Patriots missed the playoffs last year for the first time since 2008 last season, and Vegas doesn’t seem to think they’ll be getting back in the postseason last year as they currently have +125 odds to make the playoffs. That’s just ahead of division rival Dolphins at +130 and significantly below the Bills at -333. The AFC East figures to be pretty strong, and while it’s not the best division in the NFL, it will present a bunch of challenging games to the Patriots. New England is currently tied with Miami with +350 odds to win the AFC East, while Buffalo is the favorite at -150. Last year, the Bills won the division on the back of a massive breakout season from Josh Allen and elite play from their wide receivers, primarily Stefon Diggs.
That duo doesn’t figure to be slowing down any time soon. However, the Patriots have the defense and could have the balanced offensive attack to give Buffalo some problems this season. New England currently has a projected win total of 9 games, the same number as many AFC teams, including the Dolphins, Titans, Chargers, and Colts. The Patriots won 9+ games in 19 straight seasons prior to laat year. However, that was mainly with Tom Brady and some of the best defensive talents in the NFL. Bill Belichick has the coaching acumen to lead this team to 9 wins for a 17-game season, though – that would equate to a 9-8 record. The Patriots are currently listed at +3700 to win the Super Bowl. That’s just behind the Chargers and Dolphins and just ahead of the Saints and Steelers. Of course, New England has won the Super Bowl six times over the past two decades, but without Tom Brady, it will be tough for them to earn their seventh championship.
Reasons Why Patriots Win Super Bowl
During some of their best Super Bowl-winning seasons recently, the Patriots have been a team driven by an elite defense. Of course, Tom Brady had a major part to play, but Bill Belichick’s defense was arguably just as impactful in some years. The New England defense remains one of the better groups in the NFL, especially after the influx of front seven talent in free agency and the draft. The return of D’Onta Hightower, the team’s defensive captain, cannot be overstated after he opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns. Hightower’s impact on the field is tremendous but it’s his intangibles that make him remarkably valuable as he leads his teammates and serves as a coach on the field. The Patriots have some tremendous secondary talent with Stephon Gilmore, JC Jackson, and Jonathan Jones forming a formidable trio of cornerbacks.
Those three are flanked by safeties Devin McCourty and Adrian Philips ahead of some impressive depth. The Patriots should also be much more efficient offensively this season as Damien Harris could have a huge year running the ball behind a stacked offensive line. Cam Newton’s return to better health coincides with the addition of some pass-catching talent and the two-tight end system is a great zig when the rest of the league is zagging towards spread offense and four-wide sets. New England’s division is pretty manageable as Josh Allen could come back down to earth and expectations are low for second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. The mantra goes that defense wins championships, and New England could prove that right this year as Bill Belichick looks to one-up Tom Brady.
Reason Why Patriots Don’t Win Super Bowl
The biggest issue for the Patriots is at quarterback. With studs like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Ryan Tannehill, and Baker Mayfield in the AFC, it’s going to be difficult to go far with Cam Newton at quarterback. Sure, he’s further removed from his injuries, but he’s had a series of issues with his throwing arm and at age 32 his body seems to be starting to fail him. Newton threw for just 2,657 yards and 8 touchdowns to 10 interceptions in 15 games last year as he consistently struggled to push the ball downfield. The Patriots don’t have a receiver to take the top off opposing defenses and Newton’s inability to throw deep could make this a predictable, one-dimensional offense this season.
Mac Jones isn’t a renowned deep-ball thrower, either, and while his accuracy could earn him the starting role, he doesn’t provide the team with considerably more upside in the passing game. Defensively, the Patriots are relying on some older players as all of D’Onta Hightower, Stephon Gilmore, Kyle Van Noy, and Devin McCourty are 30+ years old and have shown some signs of decline. While the Patriots play in a manageable division, they do have to play some high-powered teams this year in the Buccaneers, Saints, Cowboys, Browns, Titans, and Colts. It’s fairly unlikely the Patriots win their division this year, much less earn a top-two seed in the conference, and this just isn’t a team with the type of juice needed to knock off the top contenders on the road in the playoffs. The Patriots should be better than last year and could hit the over on their 9-game projected win total, but this isn’t a contender as presently constructed.
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