New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals NFL Player Props & Picks (12/12/22)

Get New England Patriots Vs. Arizona Cardinals player prop picks & odds for the (12/12/22) matchup.

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New England Patriots Vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Picks

Monday Night Football this week features two teams on the fringe of the playoff conversation in their respective conferences. The Cardinals are finally healthy with DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown taking the field together, but it may be too little too late in a crowded NFC Wild Card race.

Where does the value lie in this cross-conference primetime matchup? In this article, I’ll break down my favorite player props on the board. As always, you can use the Patriots vs. Cardinals player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.

Hunter Henry Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110 FanDuel) and Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+340 FanDuel)

Tight ends against the Cardinals. Rinse and repeat. Despite the team’s best efforts to invest in the linebacker and safety positions, their woeful tight end coverage has continued this year. They allow 6.9 receptions for 73.3 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game to the position, all of which pace the NFL.

It’s been an up-and-down season for Hunter Henry, but he’s trending up as of late. He has 4+ targets in three of his last four games, and he’s averaging 36.5 receiving yards over that span. With Jakobi Meyers out tonight, we can expect Henry to be more of a focal point in the offense and get a couple of extra looks.

Henry also only has two touchdowns this year after scoring nine times last season. He was likely always set for some regression from that number, but he’s due for a bit of positive regression at this point, and he leads the team with seven red-zone targets this season. Against the Cardinals, his touchdown prop is a must-bet.

Marquise Brown Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110 BetMGM)

In his first game back from injury, Marquise Brown saw eight targets and caught six of them for 46 yards. While DeAndre Hopkins’ presence in the lineup ensures Brown won’t be seeing a 17-target game like he did earlier in the season, he also helps Brown see much more single coverage on the perimeter.

Last week, we targeted Isaiah McKenzie against the Patriots to great success. For similar reasons, I love Hollywood here. The Patriots play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL this season, and Brown is the Cardinals’ highest-graded receiver against man coverage this year, per PFF.

With Zach Ertz out for the year and Rondale Moore out for this game, the Cardinals’ targets will likely be condensed between Hopkins and Brown. While Hopkins should have a strong game as well, I prefer the value on Hollywood against a bit of a paper tiger defense whose stats were boosted by early matchups against some horrible quarterbacks.

Kyler Murray Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)

I’m less bullish on this prop than the other two I listed, particularly with my expectation that this will be a very public side in this game. However, it’s worth mentioning Kyler Murray’s rushing prop given this matchup. The Patriots have allowed 24.2 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, the sixth-most in the NFL this season.

The return of Hollywood across from Hopkins likely reduces some of the necessity of Murray running the ball, but it will always be in his nature to a degree. He has 35+ rushing yards in five of his last six games, including 56 against the Chargers with both Hopkins and Brown in the lineup.

The Patriots held Josh Allen to 20 rushing yards last week, but Sam Ehlinger (39), Justin Fields (82), and Lamar Jackson (107) have soared over this prop against them this season. Given Murray’s propensity to run and the team’s overmatched offensive line, there’s still some value at this number.