The Patriots are suddenly on a tear with a four-game win streak heading into this Thursday night matchup against the Falcons. Atlanta, meanwhile, got decimated by the Cowboys 43-3 last week. Aside from the obvious 28-3 jokes that will be made repeatedly ahead of this game, there should be some enticing betting angles to break down. In this article, we’ll take a look at the best player prop values available. You can use our player prop search tool to find the best prop values for the upcoming Patriots vs. Falcons game.
New England Patriots Vs. Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Search Tool
Matt Ryan Under 250.5 Passing Yards
The Falcons’ offense has stagnated in recent weeks, and the expected absence of Cordarelle Patterson this week, in addition to the ongoing absence of Calvin Ridley, makes things difficult for Matt Ryan heading into this matchup. New England has allowed just 220.1 passing yards per game this year, the eighth-fewest in the NFL. Over the past three weeks, they’ve allowed just 162 passing yards per game, the second-fewest over that span. Matt Ryan has averaged just 202 passing yards per game over his past three outings, and the lack of reliable pass-catchers will hold him back against an ascending defense. This line is surprisingly high, and I’m hammering the under here.
Thursday Night Football Player Props Video
Kyle Pitts Under 64.5 Receiving Yards
The Patriots are excellent at taking away their opponent’s best offensive weapon, and unfortunately for the rookie tight end, Kyle Pitts is that guy this week. Since Calvin Ridley left the team, Pitts has seen bracket coverage every week as defenses have keyed in on stopping him. Over his past three games, Pitts is averaging 45 receiving yards per game and has not surpassed this mark over that span. Even when Ridley was active, Pitts has only reached this line in three of nine games this season. New England has allowed a tight end to go over 25 yards just once all season, and while I won’t predict Pitts to be that unproductive, it’s hard to see how he gets to 65 yards in this game.
Hunter Henry Anytime TD Scorer
I will happily take Hunter Henry to score a touchdown in plus money anytime I can get it, even in what I have projected as a lower-scoring game. Henry has scored in six of his last seven games and found the end zone twice last week. Jonnu Smith’s absence further solidified Henry in that red zone role last week, and it’s unclear if Smith will be able to return on the short week. The Falcons have thrown several different defenders at tight ends this season. None of them have been particularly effective as they rank middle of the pack against the position this season. Henry is a red zone phenom, and Mac Jones always looks his way in that area of the field. With the Falcons allowing the fifth-highest touchdown percentage in the red zone, I’ll happily back Henry to find the end zone again this week.
Mac Jones Under 254.5 Passing Yards
I’m surprised this line landed this high for Mac Jones as he has not had significant volume for the past month or so. In the Patriots’ last six games, Jones has averaged just 220.3 passing yards, and he has thrown for under 200 yards in each of his previous two games. The Falcons are a vulnerable passing defense, but the Patriots have built their current win streak on the back of their run game and defense while limiting Jones’s chances to make costly mistakes. That formula isn’t going to change this week, and I’m expecting the Patriots to keep things in check again despite a matchup where Jones could air out the offense if they wanted him to.