This week, the Patriots and Bills renew their bitter rivalry in a rubber match after tying their season series with one win apiece. The weather conditions in Buffalo are projecting to not be too pleasant at around zero degrees at kickoff, and the cold-weather game will likely lead to lots of value on the under on player props. In this article, I’ll look at which props have the highest likelihood of hitting. You can use the player prop search tool below to find the best odds for the Patriots vs. Bills game.
New England Patriots Vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Search Tool
Josh Allen Under 241.5 Passing Yards
In his last game against the Patriots, Josh Allen threw for 314 yards as he picked apart their secondary. However, Allen has not fared well in cold weather throughout his career. He has averaged just 176.6 passing yards per game in contests with the game-time temperature under 32 degrees, including an average of 166.6 yards per game this year compared to his season-long average of 259.2. Just two weeks ago, against a much worse defense than New England’s in the Falcons, Allen finished with just 120 passing yards and struggled throughout the game. Patriots fans should be excited, as the freezing temperatures could be a massive equalizer in this game, and I’m projecting Allen to have difficulty throwing the ball against the third-best pass defense in the NFL by DVOA.
Devin Singletary Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts
With Allen likely struggling to move the ball through the air, it would make sense for the Bills to turn to the run game more frequently. Devin Singletary has emerged as the clear leader in the backfield with over 75% of snaps in four of his last five games, and he has averaged 16 rushing attempts per game in his previous five, including 12 carries against the Bills a few weeks ago. The Patriots are solid against the run but not nearly as good as against the pass as they allow 123.7 rushing yards per game, ranking 22nd in the NFL. However, I believe you are getting a solid value on the rushing attempts number compared to 64.5 rushing yards. Singletary is averaging 4.6 YPC this year, meaning he would need closer to 14 carries to hit that yardage total. There’s a good chance both hit in what should be a busy night for Singletary, but I like the volume play as the higher-percentage look.
Mac Jones Under 203.5 Passing Yards
Josh Allen isn’t the only quarterback who will be adversely affected by the weather on Saturday, and I expect the Patriots to attempt to move the ball through their strong run game more often than not. This year, Mac Jones had just 82 passing yards per game against the Bills. Of course, part of that comes from the game earlier in the year where he attempted just three passes in a New England win, but the Patriots may replicate that strategy to some extent this week. The Bills allow just 163 passing yards per game this year, the fewest in the NFL, and they rank first in pass defense DVOA. I believe this line is about 30 yards too high, and I would honestly bet it down to somewhere around 180 – it’s an excellent piece for your NFL props parlays.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts
I apologize if this is boring, but the cold-weather game provides excellent value for the over on running backs and under on quarterbacks. Damien Harris is still dealing with a hamstring injury, and while he’s expected to play on Saturday, he likely won’t see his full normal workload. That means Stevenson should pick up some extra work, and as the full-time starter against Buffalo earlier this year, he had 24 carries. Even with Harris active for many of his games this year, Stevenson averages 12.1 rushing attempts per game. With the Patriots likely attempting to put less burden on Mac Jones, look for Stevenson to be a significant part of their game plan this week.