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The class of the AFC East squares off this weekend in a game that’ll have fans of betting the under licking their lips. Both defenses rank 1-2 in nearly every measurement tracking passing defense, and both coaches are known for their expertise on the defensive side of the ball. With the forecast calling for snow on Monday night, any over the top action each team has developed over the last few weeks will likely be mitigated. If you like high-flying, highlight reel level plays on offense, this may not be your type of game. If you like methodical offensive drives and coaching chess matches, however, this one has your name written all over it.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Player Prop Search Tool
Stefon Diggs Under 61.5 Receiving Yards
Outside of two breakout games against the Jets and Texans, Stefon Diggs has been having one of the worst years of his career in terms of production. He’s averaging only 77 receiving yards a game, down 19 yards from last year, and, excluding games against the Jets and Texans, he’s averaging just over 63 YPG. This Buffalo team has only played one game all season against defenses that rank in the top 16 in the NFL in passing YPG and New England will be by far and away the best secondary they’ve faced all year. Considering the weather and Buffalo’s inability to run the ball as of late, New England will likely be able to dedicate multiple corners to stopping Diggs in the open field.
Jakobi Meyers Under 42.5 Receiving Yards
Fans are high on Jakobi Meyers right now off a big 98 yard performance against the Titans last week, and a string of multi-catch games during the Patriots 6 week reign of terror. Similar to the Bills, though, this Patriots team has faced few elite passing defenses this season. The one they have gone up against — Carolina — held Meyers to one reception for 8 yards. For a receiver who’s averaging 51 yards a game on the season, it’s more than reasonable to expect a regression of 8.5 yards or more in a game that’ll be played in the snow, on the road, and against the best yards per game passing defense in the NFL.
MNF Player Prop Video
Mac Jones Under 209.5 Yards Passing
Mac Jones or Ma-homes? All puns aside, the ascension of Mac Jones has been fun to watch and it appears New England has found their quarterback of the future. While this offense has rolled over the last 6 weeks, Mac Jones has only put up more than 210 passing yards once since Halloween. Against Carolina and Cleveland, the two best passing defenses New England has faced this year, Jones is averaging 168.5 yards. The Bills passing defense is better than both of the Browns and the Panthers and it’s not particularly close.
Josh Allen Under 239.5 Yards Passing
The New England defense allows just 200 YPG through the air this season — second best in the league behind only Buffalo. They’re averaging more than one interception a game, and, over the last three games, are holding opposing quarterbacks to 109 yards throwing. The snow is likely going to force Buffalo to run the ball more on offense, and Josh Allen simply isn’t going to get the reps he’s accustomed to. Call it New England’s defense or the December weather in Buffalo — either way, Josh Allen is going to go under 240 yards passing on Monday night.