New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys (11/22/2019): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

Last Week: 2-7
All Time Results: 71-68-1, +9.27 Units

Dallas Cowboys -2.5 (+285) @ New England Patriots – .25 Units

Call me crazy.  I may well be.  Not only has the Bill Belichick Patriots covered 60% against the spread seemingly since before the invention of the cell phone camera, but the Patriots are also currently riding an epic 20-game win streak at home, covering 16 of those games.

dallas cowboysI predict they lose on Sunday.  To be a sports bettor is to be able to stand against the opinion of the world and cooly disagree.

While I got burned last week betting against the Pats, watching the game I actually concluded my thought process wasn’t far off in assessing that game.  While the Patriots offense struggled like I predicted, the Eagles just had nothing to offer on the other side of the ball.  After losing Alshon Jeffrey and RB Jordan Howard to injury right before the game, Philly’s offense was just too toothless to compete.

The Cowboys offense is two tiers better than the Eagles.  The Cowboys lead the NFL in yards per play at 6.7 yards per play.  For comparison, New England is 21st in the category only gaining 5.1 yards per play.  More importantly, Dallas’s offense is also mostly healthy, with their best QB, RB & WR all set to play alongside all 5 of their preferred starters on the Offensive-Line.

Dallas Cowboys +6.5 @ New England Patriots-.75 Units

Belichick BFF, Mike Lombardi often talks about the Patriot’s ability to make you play left-handed.  I think this works in the Cowboys’ advantage.  If the Pats wants to compensate for their average rush defense by putting more troops in the box with the idea of shutting down Zeke, I think Dak Prescott is very much up to the challenge.

Every statistical metric, as well as the eye test, confirms, Prescott has made a leap this year.  Dak currently sits only behind Russell Wilson in Total QBR.  Moreover, he is trending even higher, playing almost flawless games back-to-back against the Vikings and the Lions.

Conversely, if the Pats top-flight secondary sets out to limit the Cowboys passing attack at all costs, I’m confident Elliot’s ability to hit pay dirt.  While other RBs have better numbers this year, I am more impressed with Elliot’s consistency now going on 3 years.   Elliot has 75 or more yards on the ground in 79% of his career games.  He remains the best in the league in my opinion.

In the Dak & Zeke era, the Cowboys are 58% ATS.  Since completing the triumvirate by adding an elite WR in Amari Cooper, the Boys have been even better, 62% ATS.

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Prediction: Prescott elevates to another level in our public consciousness, earning a $100+ contract with one of the shocking wins of the season.  Cowboys 27, Patriots 20.

New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys 1Q Total Under 7.5 -.25 Units

I don’t expect either of these offenses to come out flying.  While I do expect Prescott to eventually get hot, Jason Garrett has proven to be excessively conservative to start road games.  Dallas road games have gone Under in the 1st quarter 14 of the past 15 games.

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots need to find a way to fix their rushing attack.  They sit near the bottom of the league in yards per rush, making life difficult and frustrating on the 42-year old Tom Brady.  The Pats get O-linemen, Isaiah Wynnm back from IR this week.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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