Get NFL player props picks and odds for the New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers (10/2/22) matchup.
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New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Picks
The New England Patriots must battle the Green Bay Packers without Mac Jones, who is nursing a high ankle sprain. Veteran Brian Hoyer will get the start – his first since 2020. This injury considerably changes the player prop landscape for this game. Best bets can be found below, as well as a player prop search tool to supply odds for every prop.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DK)
Although rushing props for teams with a running back committee are generally concerning, the favorable circumstances of this matchup outweigh the risks. Because Hoyer’s passing is limited, the Patriots will increase their reliance on the ground game to move the chains. They face a Packers defense that is allowing 113.3 rush yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry. Per PFF, Green Bay ranks 31st in run defense, while New England ranks 10th in run blocking.
Damien Harris entered the season as the lead back, but Stevenson’s efficiency and pass protection has erased this hierarchy. Stevenson recorded 47 yards on 9 carries in Week 2 and 73 yards on 12 carries in Week 3. With a volume increase and plenty of holes to run through, Stevenson is a likely candidate to hit the over for his individual rushing yards prop.
Brian Hoyer Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (-105 DK)
In his last start, Hoyer produced 130 yards and one interception on 24 pass attempts. He has only started two games over the past four seasons, so rust is a monumental factor here. His ability to recognize coverages and throw accurate passes against a live defense will be compromised, and the Patriots likely lean on their excellent rushing attack to compensate.
The Packers own a strong secondary, and the Patriots’ receiver weapons are average at best. It would be unwise for New England to consistently test Green Bay’s defense through the air, and Bill Belichick is perfectly willing to run the ball for entire drives. Given Hoyer’s glaring flaws and New England’s lackluster receivers, I expect them to run the ball regardless of whether they are down multiple touchdowns. It’s difficult to envision any game plan where Hoyer attempts 32 passes against a weak run defense and talented secondary.
Romeo Doubs Over 3.5 Receptions (-160 DK)
Doubs played 89% of offensive snaps last week and recorded 8 receptions on 8 targets. The rookie leads the Packers this season in targets and receptions. He is quickly building chemistry with Aaron Rodgers, who steadily feeds receivers he trusts. Doubs’ average depth of target is merely 4.3 yards (per PFF), so his targets are frequently high percentage catches. It won’t take Doubs 8-10 targets to hit 4 receptions.
New England’s secondary is also hurting, as Jalen Mills, Adrian Phillips, and Kyle Dugger are all questionable. In addition, Aaron Jones and Allen Lazard will command the majority of the defensive attention. Therefore, Doubs likely sees plenty of advantageous matchups where he can exploit the defense. The odds are not optimal, but they are worth it considering how frequently this prop hits.
Nick Folk Over 1.5 Field Goals (+135 DK)
Although Hoyer isn’t ideal, the Patriots won’t be ineffective every drive. Their strong run game can churn out first downs, and Hoyer will have some solid throws. I expect the Patriots to orchestrate around four drives within field goal range while struggling to complete the drive with a touchdown. That would bring out Nick Folk, who has excelled recently despite his age.
Over the last three seasons with New England, Folk is 76/84 (90.4%) on field goal attempts. He is 3/4 this season with his miss being a 52-yarder. If Folk is given the chance to attempt two field goals, it’s probable that he makes both of them. Considering the plus odds and projected frequency of drives within field goal range, the over for this prop is reasonable.