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Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots travel to Indianapolis this weekend for a rare Saturday night game in the NFL between two of the three hottest teams in the AFC. The Patriots come into the weekend off a bye week riding a 7 game win streak behind a ball hawking defense that is second in the NFL in interceptions and first in points allowed per game. The Colts, meanwhile, lead the league in turnover differential at +13 with more fumble recoveries than any team in the NFL. With a two game lead over the Bills in the AFC East, the Patriots look to maintain their lead and make a push for the number 1 overall spot in the AFC. The Colts, on the other hand, need a win this weekend to keep pace with the increasingly competitive AFC wild card race. Regardless of who wins, the result of this game is going to shift how the AFC playoff picture looks heading into week 16.
New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Search Tool
Mac Jones Under 230.5 Passing Yards
Over the last 4 weeks, the Colts defense hasn’t given up more than 226 yards passing once and that includes games against Tom Brady and Josh Allen. If there’s a weakness to this defense it’s in the run game, where they rank 16th in the league. Even taking the Buffalo game out of it Mac Jones has only thrown more than 231 yards twice since October 10th and both times were against passing defenses that rank bottom 11 in the league. The Colts have the 13th best pass stopping defense in yards per game and force the fourth most interceptions.
Johnathan Taylor Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts
Throwing on this New England secondary has been nearly impossible all season. In their last 5 games, no opposing quarterback has thrown for more than 172 yards and 1 touchdown against this defense. Needless to say, the Colts are going to need to move the ball on the ground to win. Thankfully, they have one of the best running backs in the league and I expect them to go to him early and often to keep the offense in rhythm. The Colts will go as Taylor goes in this one, and they’re going to have to either live or die by his performance — either way, he’s getting his attempts.
Carson Wentz Under 31.5 Passing Attempts
For the same reason the over is the move on Taylor’s rushing attempts, the under is the move on Carson Wentz’s passing attempts. Carson Wentz has had a bad habit of throwing the ball up for grabs this season, with the fourth most interceptions in the NFL, and no defense is better at capitalizing on quarterback recklessness than the Patriots — just ask Sam Darnold and Matt Ryan. Frank Reich knows it, and I expect him to take the ball out of Wentz’s hands when he can early.
T.Y. Hilton Under 25.5 Receiving Yards
Since Halloween, T.Y. Hilton is averaging just over 19 receiving yards a game with no games over 28 yards. Belichick’s defenses have historically done a great job at targeting number 2 and 3 receivers in an offense and with Carson Wentz likely to get less attempts than usual, it’s very possible that Hilton gets under 3 targets on Saturday. Simply put, this line — which is 6 yards above Hilton’s 5 game average — is too high against an elite Patriot secondary.