New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Player Props (9/11/22)

The Miami Dolphins host the New England Patriots in a season opening battle between division rivals. Both teams hold playoff aspirations, so this matchup will be key in tie-break scenarios. My player prop best bets are found below, which includes Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones, and Damien Harris. The player prop search tool will find the best odds for your favorite prop! 

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Tyreek Hill Anytime TD Scorer

This one is my favorite player prop this game. Tyreek’s Week 1 performances have consistently been impressive since his second year in the league. Over the past five season openers, Tyreek has scored five touchdowns. The only game where he failed to score was in 2019 where he played 18% of snaps due to an injury. In addition to his Week 1 accomplishments, Tyreek has torched the Patriots for five touchdowns in four career games against them. 

Mike McDaniel is an offense-oriented head coach who brings a West Coast passing scheme, which emphasizes slants, crossing routes, and utilizing horizontal space. Tyreek thrives in the slot and will excel in this system. He’s going to burn the Patriots in the open field and find the end zone through his elite speed. Tyreek’s job will also be easier since the Patriots lost elite cornerback JC Jackson, who ranked 5th in pass coverage according to PFF.

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Tua Tagovailoa Longest Completion Over 34.5 Yards

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are two of the fastest receivers in the NFL, and they can turn any short catch into a huge gain. Tua’s deep accuracy is also underrated, as PFF ranked him 1st in adjusted completion percentage for 20+ yard throws. Mike McDaniel will be eager to establish the Tua-Tyreek connection, so look for plenty of downfield attempts between the pair. It’s only a matter of time before these two connect for a huge chunk of yards. 

Tua also hit the over for this mark in 8/13 games last season, and that was before adding perhaps the best deep threat in the NFL. Plus, JC Jackson’s departure once again aids the likelihood of this prop hitting. I expect Tua to complete multiple passes of at least 35 yards here.

Mac Jones Under 0.5 Interceptions

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels resides with the Raiders now, so the Patriots offense enters a new phase. With this uncertainty looming, I expect New England to favor the run game and prevent Mac from throwing more than 30 pass attempts unless necessary. It’s not a radical game plan, as Bill Belichick loves to frequently run the ball. 

When Mac does air it out, he seldom takes chances and possesses an accurate arm. For PFF’s turnover worthy play rate metric, only Herbert, Brady, Rodgers, Kyler, and Burrow had a lower percentage. 7 of his 13 interceptions last season happened in three games against excellent secondaries, so it’s not indicative of Mac, especially considering it was his rookie year. New England’s offensive line is also rock-solid, so Mac will have plenty of time to throw. 

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Damien Harris Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards

He hit this prop in 9/15 games last season, but it was 9/12 when he received 10+ carries. Because I expect the Patriots to be run-heavy, Damien Harris will be the star of the offense and get the necessary volume. He produced 22 rushes that went for over 10 yards, which ranked 11th in the NFL.Harris was often labeled as a goal line back due to his 15 TD, but Harris is a legitimate back in the middle of the field who forces missed tackles at a high rate. 

With a sturdy offensive line and commitment to the run, Harris has a strong chance to hit the over here. I am also not worried about Rhamondre Stevenson’s involvement, as Harris is clearly the superior option who will receive the bulk of the carries. 

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Braxton has been writing for Lineups since December 2021, covering everything betting from NBA to NFL to PGA to ATP. He is a senior at the University of Pennsylvania with a sports analytics background.He is fascinated in the identification and breakdown of trends that optimize success in the sports betting world.

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